Formation of Cash Flow-Based Factor Models in the System of Value-Based Management

Abstract

The article considers the issues related to assessment and management of company value. It justifies the need for applying economic-mathematical modeling for company valuation in order to let companies manage their values. The authors propose models for calculating cash flow based on income and investment flows, calculating weighted average price of invested capital based on equality of the results of applying discounted cash flow method and economic value added method to company valuation, and calculating the factors affecting income and investment flows based on structural shifts method taking into account deviations from the average. The developed models of cash flows and calculation of weighted average cost of invested capital have been tested using actual data from three Russian hightech companies. The sampling included a wide range of companies with revenues over two billion rubles: an industry leader, a company in the middle of the range, and a company at the lower boundary of the range. The calculations made it possible to analyze and compare the key performance indicators of the enterprises: rate of return, Tobin's ratio, fundamental value, equity share in capitalized value, effective income tax rate, etc. Classification of indicators according to the levels of their factorial influence on the final company value figures has been developed. The study has led to a conclusion that there is a need to employ the company's value analysis for interpreting results of companies' financial and economic activities, since the calculations performed have allowed assuming that conventional indicators of financial and economic analysis cannot fully evaluate a company's performance. The proposed models for assessing and managing companies' values make it possible to carry out theoretical calculations automatically.

Формирование Рейтинга Эффективности Компаний Железнодорожного Транспорта России

“…Оценка показателей стоимости бизнеса (EV -Enterprise Value) проводится на основе классического метода дисконтирования денежных потоков на всех инвесторов. Величина стоимости бизнеса данным методом рассчитывается по формуле [9]: где nчисло лет прогнозного периода, то есть периода времени когда осуществляются прогнозные расчеты будущих доходов и будущих изменений капитала; iномер года прогнозного периода; IC0 -величина инвестированного капитала на дату оценки; FCFFiсвободный денежный поток i-го прогнозного года на всех инвесторов (Free Cash Flow to Firm) [10]:…”

Economic Justification of Enterprise Development based on Company Value Analysis

“…The calculations are based on the classical discounted cash flow method and the terminal value accounting method using the Gordon model (formula 5) [11]:…”