Formation of disjunct plant distributions in Northeast Asia: a case study of Betula davurica using a species distribution model

Shitara, Takuto; Nakamura, Yukito; Matsui, Tetsuya; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Ohashi, Haruka; Kamijo, Takashi

doi:10.1007/s11258-018-0862-y

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…We conclude that the MiCM has been a major climatic factor influencing the shift in the distribution and establishment of the disjunct distribution of P. koraiensis. It can be speculated that fluctuations in this temperature influenced the shift in the distribution of many other cool and cold temperate species in Northeast Asia during the Quaternary period (Tsuyama et al 2014;Shitara et al 2018;Tang et al 2018). Additionally, our results indicate that there is currently an empty habitat in the Japanese Archipelago and Sakhalin, which has remained uncolonized.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

“…The factors that contribute to the establishment of geographical disjunct distributions of plant species have long captured the interest of botanists and ecologists (e.g., Wood 1972;Wen 1999;Qian and Ricklefs 2000;Richard 2006). Climatic changes over the glacial and interglacial periods during the Quaternary period (over the past 2.6 million years) have caused the expansion and retraction of plant habitats, local extinctions, and the development of present-day disjunct distribution patterns (Hewitt 1996;Comes and Kadereit 1998;Svenning et al 2008;Chen et al 2012;Shitara et al 2018). Accordingly, elucidating the processes whereby the disjunct distributions of plant species develop in relation to paleoclimate change provides an important context for understanding the development of present-day vegetation and biodiversity (Wang et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(Korean pine), Picea sect. Picea, and Betula davurica are widely distributed in continental regions (Kolbek 2003;Krestov et al 2006) and are also distributed in the Japanese Archipelago, where they occur only in a few montane regions, showing present-day disjunct patterns of geographical distribution (e.g., Katsuki et al 2004;Aizawa et al 2012;Shitara et al 2018). Macro-fossil and pollen fossil records indicate that these species were widely distributed in the Japanese Archipelago during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; between ca.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change impacts on migration of Pinus koraiensis during the Quaternary using species distribution models

et al. 2021

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Clarifying the influences of paleoclimate changes on the disjunct distribution formation of plants allows a historical and mechanical understanding of current vegetation and biodiversity. This study investigated the influences of paleoclimate changes on the present disjunct distribution formation of Pinus koraiensis (Korean pine) using species distribution modeling. A species distribution model (SDM) was built using maximum entropy principle algorithms (MaxEnt), data from 152 occurrences of the species, and four bioclimatic variables at 2.5 arcminute (approximately 5 km) spatial resolution. The simulation revealed the excellent fit of the MaxEnt model performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.922 and continuous Boyce index (BCI) value of 0.925 with fivefold cross-validation. The most important climatic factor was the minimum temperature of the coldest month. Suitable habitats for the species ranged between − 30.1 and − 4.1 °C. Projected suitable habitats under the Last Glacial Maximum (approximately 22,000 years ago [ka BP]: LGM) period showed wide distributions in eastern China, the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, and the Japanese Archipelago. After the mid-Holocene (approximately 6 ka BP), the suitable habitats expanded northwards in continental regions and retreated from both north and southwest of Japan. This eventually formed disjunct suitable habitats in central Japan. An increase in temperature after the LGM period caused the migration of P. koraiensis toward new, suitable habitats in continental Northeast Asia, while species in the Japanese Archipelago retreated, forming the present disjunct distributions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change impacts on migration of Pinus koraiensis during the Quaternary using species distribution models

et al. 2021

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“…Mapping the potential distribution of M. glyptostroboides at a large spatial and temporal scale poses a unique challenge. SDMs provide a possible solution to this problem and already underpinned many biological conservation studies by providing comprehensive potential distribution maps [50][51][52]. Compared with traditional frequentist data models, machine learning models can provide obvious advantages to account for non-intuitive relationships and the anisotropy of ecosystems [53].…”

Section: The Rationality Of the Model And The Limitations Of The Predmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-Pessimistic Predictions of the Distributions and Suitability of Metasequoia glyptostroboides under Climate Change Using a Random Forest Model

Zhang

Wei

Zhang

et al. 2020

Forests

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Metasequoia glyptostroboides Hu & W. C. Cheng, which is a remarkable rare relict plant, has gradually been reduced to its current narrow range due to climate change. Understanding the comprehensive distribution of M. glyptostroboides under climate change on a large spatio-temporal scale is of great significance for determining its forest adaptation. In this study, based on 394 occurrence data and 10 bioclimatic variables, the global potential distribution of M. glyptostroboides under eight different climate scenarios (i.e., the past three, the current one, and the next four) from the Quaternary glacial to the future was simulated by a random forest model built with the biomod2 package. The key bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of M. glyptostroboides are BIO2 (mean diurnal range), BIO1 (annual mean temperature), BIO9 (mean temperature of driest quarter), BIO6 (min temperature of coldest month), and BIO18 (precipitation of warmest quarter). The result indicates that the temperature affects the potential distribution of M. glyptostroboides more than the precipitation. A visualization of the results revealed that the current relatively suitable habitats of M. glyptostroboides are mainly distributed in East Asia and Western Europe, with a total area of approximately 6.857 × 10 6 km 2 . With the intensification of global warming in the future, the potential distribution and the suitability of M. glyptostroboides have a relatively non-pessimistic trend. Whether under the mild (RCP4.5) and higher (RCP8.5) emission scenarios, the total area of suitable habitats will be wider than it is now by the 2070s, and the habitat suitability will increase to varying degrees within a wide spatial range. After speculating on the potential distribution of M. glyptostroboides in the past, the glacial refugia of M. glyptostroboides were inferred, and projections regarding the future conditions of these places are expected to be optimistic. In order to better protect the species, the locations of its priority protected areas and key protected areas, mainly in Western Europe and East Asia, were further identified. Our results will provide theoretical reference for the long-term management of M. glyptostroboides, and can be used as background information for the restoration of other endangered species in the future.

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“…Due to the model's effectiveness, it has been widely used in biodiversity (especially for endangered species) conservation [47][48][49][50][51], invasive species control [52,53], as well as nature reserve planning and management [54][55][56]. It has also been applied to reconstruct habitat shifts of individual species or vegetation during the last glacial period, and simulate how paleoclimatic fluctuations have influenced the present distribution [57][58][59], predict the potential distribution in the future, find conservation gaps, and guide protection management [60][61][62].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Chinese White Pines (Pinus subsect. Strobus) under Climate Changes and Implications for Their Conservation

Lin

Xie

Cui

2020

Forests

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White pines (Pinus subsect. Strobus) play important roles in forest ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. Species of this group are narrowly distributed or endangered in China. In this study, we used a species distribution model (SDM) to project and predict the distribution patterns of the 12 species of Chinese white pine under a variety of paleoclimatic and future climate change scenarios based on 39 high-resolution environmental variables and 1459 distribution records. We also computed the centroid shift, range expansion/contraction, and suitability change of the current distribution area to assess the potential risk to each species in the future. The modeling results revealed that the suitable habitat of each species is consistent with but slightly larger than its actual distribution range and that temperature, precipitation, and UV radiation are important determining factors for the distribution of different white pine species. The results indicate that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) greatly affected the current distribution of the Chinese white pine species. Additionally, it was predicted that under the future climate change scenarios, there will be a reduction in the area of habitats suitable for P. armandii, P. morrisonicola, and P. mastersiana. Furthermore, some of the current distribution sites of P. armandii, P. kwangtungensis, P. mastersiana, P. morrisonicola, P. sibirica, and P. wallichiana were predicted to become more unsuitable under these scenarios. These results indicate that some Chinese white pine species, such as P. armandii, P. morrisonicola, and P. mastersiana, may have a very high risk of population shrinkage in the future. Overall, this study provided relevant data for the long-term conservation (both in situ and ex situ) and sustainable management of Chinese white pine species.

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Formation of disjunct plant distributions in Northeast Asia: a case study of Betula davurica using a species distribution model

Cited by 9 publications

References 45 publications

Climate change impacts on migration of Pinus koraiensis during the Quaternary using species distribution models

Climate change impacts on migration of Pinus koraiensis during the Quaternary using species distribution models

Non-Pessimistic Predictions of the Distributions and Suitability of Metasequoia glyptostroboides under Climate Change Using a Random Forest Model

Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Chinese White Pines (Pinus subsect. Strobus) under Climate Changes and Implications for Their Conservation

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