Formulación simplificada de un índice de sequía, empleando una distribución de probabilidad mezclada

Gutiérrez-López, Martín Alfonso; Baecheler, José Vargas; Torres, Víctor Reséndiz; Paz, Ivonne Cruz

doi:10.24850/j-tyca-2016-05-08

“…Indeed, the use of probabilistic model parameters that retain physical significance and can also form homogeneous regions is singularly attractive in hydrologic modeling. On the other hand, it is possible to correlate the parameter (λ) with the occurrence of droughts [19] and the parameter (β) with extreme rainfall events [1,17,20]. This advantage of using the leakage distribution makes it possible to characterize the two extreme phenomena, extreme rainfall and droughts, simultaneously with the same probability distribution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Autocorrelation Ratio as a Measure of Inertia for the Classification of Extreme Events

Gutiérrez-López

¹

,

Chávez

²

,

Díaz-Delgado

³

2022

Mathematics

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One of the problems in modern hydrology concerns the estimation of design events at sites with scarce or null data. This is a challenge for developing countries because they do not have monitoring networks as extensive and reliable as in developed nations. This situation has caused states in the Latin American and Caribbean region, in particular, to rely on hydrological regionalization techniques. These procedures implement clustering algorithms in combination with aggregation rules and metric distances to generate homogeneous groups from which hydrological information can be transferred. In addition, it has been proven that the analysis of spatial variables is sensitive to the magnitudes of extreme events; therefore, a mathematical formulation that adopts this fact into consideration must be included. For this purpose, the autocorrelation distance of the daily rainfall data series is proposed as an estimator of temporal variability. The fit parameters of the mixed Poisson-exponential probability distribution are operated as estimators of spatial variability. These spatio-temporal conditions are combined to obtain a mathematical relation of the autocorrelation as a measure of inertia for the classification of extreme events. This procedure is applied to Hydrologic Region 10 in northwestern Mexico from daily rainfall records. This zone has already been explored in terms of its regional homogeneity, which allows validating the results obtained.

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Climatological Drought Analyses Using SPI, Deciles, PPN, EDI and Rainy Days in Chile

Pinto¹,

Baecheler²,

Gutiérrez-López³

2021

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Since 2010, a large area of Chile is in a period of severe drought, with impacts on the population and the water resource systems. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out research on drought behavior in Chile, its prediction and monitoring, should be addressed to find suitable measures to reduce its effects. A simple calculation model is presented for the SPI, PPN, DEC and EDI indexes. Based on the hypothesis that these indexes are an indicator of the drought condition in the central-southern area of Chile; the proposed model takes as the only input variable the cumulative number of raining days. The most efficient index for the model is identified, the study is regionalized and temporal and spatial analysis of the model is carried out. A modified index of drought is obtained, based on a simple rainfall day counter. The model represents an efficient method to show a drought event.

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Climatological Drought Analyses Using Spi, Deciles, Ppn, Edi and Rainy Days in Chile

Pinto¹,

Baecheler²,

Gutiérrez-López

³

2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Since 2010, a large area of Chile is in a period of severe drought, with impacts on the population and the water resource systems. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out research on drought behavior in Chile, its prediction and monitoring, should be addressed to find suitable measures to reduce its effects. A simple calculation model is presented for the SPI, PPN, DEC and EDI indexes. Based on the hypothesis that these indexes are an indicator of the drought condition in the central-southern area of Chile; the proposed model takes as the only input variable the cumulative number of raining days. The most efficient index for the model is identified, the study is regionalized and temporal and spatial analysis of the model is carried out. A modified index of drought is obtained, based on a simple rainfall day counter. The model represents an efficient method to show a drought event.

show abstract

Formulación simplificada de un índice de sequía, empleando una distribución de probabilidad mezclada

Cited by 3 publications

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Autocorrelation Ratio as a Measure of Inertia for the Classification of Extreme Events

Autocorrelation Ratio as a Measure of Inertia for the Classification of Extreme Events

Climatological Drought Analyses Using SPI, Deciles, PPN, EDI and Rainy Days in Chile

Climatological Drought Analyses Using Spi, Deciles, Ppn, Edi and Rainy Days in Chile

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