Forty years of numerical climate modelling

Abstract

Climate modelling is now a mature discipline approaching its fortieth birthday. The need for valid climate forecasts has been underlined by the recognition that human activities are now modifying the climate. The complex nature of the climate system has resulted in the development of a surprisingly large array of modelling tools. Some are relatively simple, such as the earth systems and energy balance models (EBMs), while others are highly sophisticated models which challenge the fastest speeds of the most powerful supercomputers. Indeed, this discipline of the latter half of the twentieth century is so critically dependent on the availability of a means of undertaking powerful calculations that its evolution has matched that of the digital computer. The multi-faceted nature of the climate system demands high quality, and global observations and innovative parameterizations through which processes which cannot be described or calculated explicitly are captured to the extent deemed necessary. Interestingly, results from extremely simple, as well as highly complex and many intermediate model types are drawn upon today for effective formulation and evaluation of climate policies. This paper discusses some of the important developments during the first 40 years of climate modelling from the first models of the global atmosphere to today's models, which typically consist of integrated multi-component representations of the full climate system. The pressures of policy-relevant questions more clearly underline the tension between the need for evaluation against quality data and the unending pressure to improve spatial and temporal resolutions of climate models than at any time since the inception of climate modelling.

A review of global terrestrial evapotranspiration: Observation, modeling, climatology, and climatic variability

“…Prominent LSMs providing E include models in the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) [Rodell et al, 2004] and the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP-2) . LSM development and parameterizations are described in previous reviews [Dickinson, 2011;McGuffie and Henderson-Sellers, 2001;Overgaard et al, 2006;Pitman, 2003;Sellers et al, 1997;Yang, 2004].…”

Monte Carlo Assessment of Sampling Uncertainty of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Yield in Yorkshire, England

“…Differences in the type of model numerical scheme may also be responsible for possible differences. The two types of numerical schemes used in GCMs are grid point schemes and spectral schemes (McGuffie and Henderson-Sellers, 2001). The former represent the data on a finite grid over the globe, in both height and latitude/longitude, whilst the latter represent their variables as spherical harmonics.…”

Quaternary science 2007: a 50-year retrospective

“…These were first developed more than 40 years ago as relatively simple models of the atmosphere, but now typically consist of integrated multi-component representations of the full climate system (McGuffie & Henderson-Sellars 2001). In Quaternary science, GCMs have been integral components of multi-disciplinary research programmes, early examples of which were the CLI-MAP and COHMAP programmes described above.…”