Four Decades of Andean Timberline Migration and Implications for Biodiversity Loss with Climate Change

Lutz, David A.; Powell, Rebecca; Silman, Miles R.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0074496

Cited by 67 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…A progressively warmer climate would induce these plants to migrate, probably vertically from low-lying areas to higher areas (Foster 2001). Recent studies support this hypothesis in Peru (Feeley et al 2011, Lutz et al 2013, Venezuela (Safont et al 2012) and Colombia (Reina-Rodríguez et al 2016). The data herein supported estimates of altitudinal changes of 177.5 m (present-2030) and 379.8 m (present-2050) for the 12 focal species.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

Orchids distribution and bioclimatic niches as a strategy to climate change in areas of tropical dry forest in Colombia

Reina-Rodriguez

Mejía²,

Llanos³

et al. 2017

Lankesteriana

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AbstrACt. Climate change projections in Colombia predict an average increase in temperature of 2.6°C and in precipitation of 20% by the end of the century. These changes would directly affect the tropical dry forest (TDF) and its biodiversity. Epiphytic orchids, more exposed to the atmosphere than the terrestrial biota, remain dependent on climatic variables, making them particularly susceptible to climate change. We studied the spatial and temporal changes of a focal group of 12 orchid species typical of the TDF in Colombia, and the future conservation areas to this ecosystem. The algorithm used by MaxEnt was employed for modelling. A total of 439 records: direct observations (276); herbaria collections (159) Other variables analysed, such as distance thresholds of pollinators (Euglossini), availability of phorophytes, and distances to TDF cover and protected areas, all suggest an improving connectivity between the lowland and mid-mountain areas. Consequently, bioclimatic niches (BN) are proposed as a new landscape management unit. Throughout the country, 69 of these BN were located as an adaptation-conservation strategy against climate change in the TDF in Colombia.resumen. Las proyecciones del cambio climático en Colombia, indican en promedio un incremento en 2.6°C de temperatura y 20% de la precipitación para el fin del siglo. Estos cambios afectarán directamente al bosque seco tropical (Bs-T) y su biodiversidad. Las orquídeas epífitas, más expuestas a la atmósfera que la biota terrestre mantienen dependencia de variables ligadas al clima. Esta condición las hace particularmente susceptibles al cambio climático. Nosotros estudiamos los cambios espacio-temporales de un grupo focal de 12 especies de orquídeas típicas del Bs-T en Colombia y las futuras áreas de conservación de este ecosistema. El algoritmo usado por MaxEnt fue empleado para el modelamiento. Un total de 439 registros: observaciones directas (276); registros de herbario (159) y fuentes bibliográficas (4), colectadas desde septiembre de 2009 hasta abril 2015 fueron consideradas para entrenar el modelo. El nicho potencial actual fue comparado con el escenario de emisiones de cambio climático SRES 8.5 para dos periodos: 2020-2049 (2030) y 2040-2069 (2050). Los resultados indican un desplazamiento altitudinal respecto al presente, condicionado por variables como: temperatura, accesibilidad, y precipitación. Las áreas de montaña media (1300-1700 m) incrementarán su idoneidad en los modelos de nicho potencial futuro (2030 y 2050) en detrimento de las tierras bajas (0-1000 m). Otras variables analizadas como umbrales de distancia en polinizadores (Euglossini), disponibilidad de forófitos, distancias a coberturas de Bs-T y áreas protegidas, sugieren mejorar la conectividad entre tierras bajas y áreas de montaña media. En consecuencia, los nichos bioclimáticos (BN) son propuestos como nueva unidad 18 LANKESTERIANA de manejo del paisaje. En todo el país, 69 de ellos fueron localizados como estrategia de adaptación-conservación frente al cambio climático ...

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

Orchids distribution and bioclimatic niches as a strategy to climate change in areas of tropical dry forest in Colombia

Reina-Rodriguez

Mejía²,

Llanos³

et al. 2017

Lankesteriana

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“…In the search for colder climates they may reduce their range size (Buermann et al, 2011;La Sorte and Jetz, 2010) and suffer population declines (Shoo et al, 2005;Harris et al, 2014). Indeed, in the last 42 years the mountain plant species in Peru have been migrating in altitude (Lutz et al, 2013), and birds have been moving gradually (Forero-Medina et al, 2011a). Although this study did not predict the disappearance of climate envelopes for bird species (total reduction of geographic range), which increases the likelihood of extinction (Williams et al, 2007), high percentages of range losses were predicted.…”

Section: Changes In Geographic Distribution and Conservationmentioning

confidence: 61%

Projected distribution shifts and protected area coverage of range-restricted Andean birds under climate change

Avalos

Hernández

2015

Global Ecology and Conservation

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a b s t r a c tIn this study we projected the effect of anthropogenic climate change in endemic and restricted-range Andean bird species that spread out from the center of Bolivia to southeastern Peru. We also analyzed the representation of these species in protected areas. The ensemble forecasts from niche-based models indicated that 91-100% of species may reduce their range size under full and no dispersal scenarios, including five species that are currently threatened. The large range reduction (average 63%) suggests these mountain species may be threatened by climate change. The strong effects due to range species losses are predicted in the humid mountain forests of Bolivia. The representation of bird species also decreased in protected areas. Partial gap species (94-86%) are expected to increase over the present (62%). This suggests climate change and other non-climate stressors should be incorporated in conservations plans for the long-term persistence of these species. This study anticipates the magnitude of shifts in the distribution of endemic birds, and represents in the study area the first exploration of the representation of rangerestricted Andean birds in protected areas under climate change.

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“…In what we believe to be the most detailed assessment of tropical treeline shifts in any region to date, Lutz et al () found that only 18% of the treeline segments that they examined in Peru had shifted upslope over a 42 yr study period. The majority of treelines that shifted upslope were located within protected areas relatively‐free from human impacts.…”

Section: Past and Present Tropical Treeline Shifts And Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 93%

The inability of tropical cloud forest species to invade grasslands above treeline during climate change: potential explanations and consequences

Rehm

Feeley

2015

Ecography

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The upper elevational range edges of most tropical cloud forest tree species and hence the ‘treeline’ are thought to be determined primarily by temperatures. For this reason, the treeline ecotone between cloud forests and the overlying grasslands is generally predicted to shift upslope as species migrate to higher elevations in response to global warming. Here, we propose that other factors are preventing tropical trees from shifting or expanding their ranges to include high elevation areas currently under grassland, resulting in stationary treelines despite rising mean temperatures. The inability of cloud forest species to invade the grasslands, a phenomenon which we refer to as the ‘grass ceiling’ effect, poses a major threat to tropical biodiversity as it will greatly increase risk of extinctions and biotic attrition in diverse tropical cloud forests. In this review, we discuss some of the natural factors, as well as anthropogenic influences, that may prevent cloud forest tree species from expanding their ranges to higher elevations. In the absence of human disturbances, tropical treelines have historically shifted up‐ and down‐slope with changes in temperature. Over time, increased human activity has limited forests to lower elevations (i.e. has depressed treelines), and often broken the equilibrium between species range limits and climate. Yet even in areas where anthropogenic influences are halted, cloud forests have not expanded to higher elevations. Despite the critical importance of understanding the distributional responses of tropical species to climate change, few studies have addressed the factors that influence treeline location and dynamics, severely hindering our ability to predict the fate of these diverse and important ecosystems.

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Four Decades of Andean Timberline Migration and Implications for Biodiversity Loss with Climate Change

Cited by 67 publications

References 34 publications

Orchids distribution and bioclimatic niches as a strategy to climate change in areas of tropical dry forest in Colombia

Orchids distribution and bioclimatic niches as a strategy to climate change in areas of tropical dry forest in Colombia

Projected distribution shifts and protected area coverage of range-restricted Andean birds under climate change

The inability of tropical cloud forest species to invade grasslands above treeline during climate change: potential explanations and consequences

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