Four Europes: Climate change beliefs and attitudes predict behavior and policy preferences using a latent class analysis on 23 countries

Abstract

Building public will for climate action requires designing messages for different audiences. Previous studies that identified groups based on similar beliefs, behavior, and political preferences related to climate change were in single countries and were not pre-registered. The current study ran latent class analysis on the European Social Survey (ESS 2016, N= 44,387) to identify groups of people according to their climate change attitudes and beliefs in 22 European countries and Israel. We found strong evidence for four groups: Engaged (18%), Conflicted (18%), Indifferent (42%), and Skeptical (21%) and we compare the segment structure and proportions within Europe and to other countries. We identify differences between the groups in values, life satisfaction, and social trust, and then revealed that the groups uniquely predict self-reported behaviors not included in the segmentation. The findings characterize climate change beliefs for all of Europe and guide governments and pan-European bodies in designingeffective communications to promote climate beliefs and actions.

Attitudes to climate change risk: classification of and transitions in the UK population between 2012 and 2020

“…Members of the Sceptical cluster deny that climate change is going to be problematic. This is consistent with the “Sceptical”, “Doubtful” and “Denial” groups identified in previous research (e.g., Dunlap, 2013 ; Kácha et al, 2022 ; Maibach et al, 2011 ; Sibley and Kurz, 2013 ; Whitmarsh, 2011 ), this group minimise the projected effects of climate change and therefore is less likely to support actions to mitigate those effects. Different from outright scepticism (thinking that denies the existence of climate change), their doubts are focused on the seriousness, necessity, effectivity, and urgency of tackling climate change.…”

“…In Australia, Ashworth et al ( 2011 ) identified a four-category segmentation ranging from Engaged to Doubtful using a two-stage cluster analysis (unspecified hierarchical and k -means). Similar segmentations also produced in a multi-national sample, a recent work conducted by Kácha et al ( 2022 ) classified four groups of climate change beliefs and attitudes in 23 countries in Europe: Engaged, Pessimistic, Indifferent, and Doubtful.…”