Four-week forecasts of COVID-19 epidemic trajectories in South Africa, Chile, Peru and Brazil: a model evaluation

Abstract

Introduction From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, epidemiological models have been used in a number of ways to aid governments and organizations in efficient planning of resources and decision making. These models have elucidated important epidemiological transmission parameters, in addition to making short-term projections. Methods We constructed a compartmental mathematical model for the transmission, detection and prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infections for regions where Anglo American has mining operations. We fitted the model to publicly available data and used it to make short-term projections. Finally, we evaluated how the model performed by comparing short-term projections to actual confirmed cases, retrospectively. Findings The average forecast errors for four-week-ahead projections ranged between 1% and 8% in all the countries and regions considered in this study. All but one region had more than 75% of the true values falling within the range of four-week-ahead projections. The quality of the projections improved with time as expected due to increased historical data. Conclusion Our model produced four-week forecasts with a sufficiently high level of accuracy to guide operational and strategic planning for business continuity and COVID-19 responses in Anglo American mining sites.