Fourth Oregon climate assessment report. State of climate science : 2019

Mote, Philip W.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Dello, Kathie; Hegewisch, Katherine C.; Rupp, David E.

doi:10.5399/osu/1159

Cited by 13 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 138 publications

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“…significant warming (Siler et al, 2019). Despite this modulation, over the past 50 years western U.S. snowpack has decreased significantly (see Figure S3; El-Askary et al, 2018;Mote, 2006;Mote et al, 2005Mote et al, , 2019Overpeck & Udall, 2010;Pederson et al, 2011Pederson et al, , 2013Stewart et al, 2004;Whitlock et al, 2017). The recent snowpack decline is more attributable to temperature increase than to a decrease in precipitation (Margulis et al, 2016;Mote et al, 2016;Pederson et al, 2013;Woodhouse et al, 2016).…”

Section: Reduction Of Snow and Icementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and possibly other oceanic‐atmospheric teleconnections modulate these changes to some degree (Barnett et al, 2008; Knowles et al, 2006; Mamalakis et al, 2018; Scalzitti et al, 2016), slowing snowpack decline despite significant warming (Siler et al, 2019). Despite this modulation, over the past 50 years western U.S. snowpack has decreased significantly (see Figure S3; El‐Askary et al, 2018; Mote, 2006; Mote et al, 2005, 2019; Overpeck & Udall, 2010; Pederson et al, 2011, 2013; Stewart et al, 2004; Whitlock et al, 2017). The recent snowpack decline is more attributable to temperature increase than to a decrease in precipitation (Margulis et al, 2016; Mote et al, 2016; Pederson et al, 2013; Woodhouse et al, 2016).…”

Section: Anticipated Changes In the Western United Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A transition from snow toward rain has important implications for seasonal snow accumulation, stream runoff, and the persistence of glacial ice and perennial snow. A shift toward rain‐dominated precipitation has long been recognized as a consequence of global warming (Trenberth, 1998) and has been evident throughout the western United States since the mid‐twentieth century (Barnett et al, 2008; Davenport et al, 2019; IPCC, 2014; Kampf & Lefsky, 2016; Knowles et al, 2006; Mote et al, 2019; Wi et al, 2012). The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and possibly other oceanic‐atmospheric teleconnections modulate these changes to some degree (Barnett et al, 2008; Knowles et al, 2006; Mamalakis et al, 2018; Scalzitti et al, 2016), slowing snowpack decline despite significant warming (Siler et al, 2019).…”

Section: Anticipated Changes In the Western United Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Geomorphic and Sedimentary Effects of Modern Climate Change: Current and Anticipated Future Conditions in the Western United States

East

Sankey

2020

Reviews of Geophysics

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Hydroclimatic changes associated with global warming over the past 50 years have been documented widely, but physical landscape responses are poorly understood thus far. Detecting sedimentary and geomorphic signals of modern climate change presents challenges owing to short record lengths, difficulty resolving signals in stochastic natural systems, influences of land use and tectonic activity, long-lasting effects of individual extreme events, and variable connectivity in sediment-routing systems. We review existing literature to investigate the nature and extent of sedimentary and geomorphic responses to modern climate change, focusing on the western United States, a region with generally high relief and high sediment yield likely to be sensitive to climatic forcing. Based on fundamental geomorphic theory and empirical evidence from other regions, we anticipate climate-driven changes to slope stability, watershed sediment yields, fluvial morphology, and aeolian sediment mobilization in the western United States. We find evidence for recent climate-driven changes to slope stability and increased aeolian dune and dust activity, whereas changes in sediment yields and fluvial morphology have been linked more commonly to nonclimatic drivers thus far. Detecting effects of climate change will require better understanding how landscape response scales with disturbance, how lag times and hysteresis operate within sedimentary systems, and how to distinguish the relative influence and feedbacks of superimposed disturbances. The ability to constrain geomorphic and sedimentary response to rapidly progressing climate change has widespread implications for human health and safety, infrastructure, water security, economics, and ecosystem resilience. Plain Language Summary Climatic changes associated with global warming over the past 50 years have been documented widely, but physical landscape responses are poorly understood. Detecting landscape signals of modern climate change is difficult for many reasons but is important because these problems relate closely to human health and safety, infrastructure, water security, and ecosystems. We reviewed the scientific literature to investigate landscape responses to modern climate change in the western United States, focusing on slope failures, watershed sediment output, river shape, and wind-blown sediment. Some changes to slope stability and wind-blown sediment are evident, whereas factors other than climate have been more important thus far in controlling sediment output and river shape. We identify ways in which more information is needed from many more places, in the western United States and globally, to understand landscape response to ongoing climate change.

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Section: Reduction Of Snow and Icementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Anticipated Changes In the Western United Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Anticipated Changes In the Western United Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Geomorphic and Sedimentary Effects of Modern Climate Change: Current and Anticipated Future Conditions in the Western United States

East

Sankey

2020

Reviews of Geophysics

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“…Steven J. Dundas, Susan Capalbo, and James Sterns Assessments of the economic impacts of a changing climate on key sectors in Oregon and the Pacific Northwest have been included in previous Oregon Climate Assessments (Dello and Mote 2010;Dalton et al 2013Mote et al 2019;. The first and second Oregon Climate Assessments provided in-depth overviews of the methods and approaches used to value these impacts and the challenges and opportunities to designing policies to enhance mitigation and adaptation.…”

Section: The Economic Implications Of Climate Change For Oregonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sixth Oregon climate assessment

Fleishman¹

2023

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Consistent with its charge under Oregon House Bill 3543, the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) conducts a biennial assessment of the state of climate change science, including biological, physical, and social science, as it relates to Oregon and the likely effects of climate change on Oregon. This sixth Oregon Climate Assessment builds on the previous assessments by continuing to evaluate past and projected future changes in Oregon’s climate and water supply. Like the fifth assessment, it is structured with the goal of supporting the state’s mitigation planning for natural hazards and implementation of the 2021 Oregon Climate Change Adaptation Framework.

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“…The sum of the various components (1.4 C) is less than the linear trend estimate, and leaves about 22% of the 1.8 C increase unattributed. It is possible that we are slightly underestimating the influence of air temperature, which was estimated to have changed 1.1 C in the Pacific Northwest since 1900(Mote et al, 2019;…”

mentioning

confidence: 97%

Warming of the lower Columbia River, 1853 to 2018

Scott

Talke

Jay

et al. 2023

River Research & Apps

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Water temperature is a critical ecological indicator; however, few studies have statistically modeled century‐scale trends in riverine or estuarine water temperature, or their cause. Here, we recover, digitize, and analyze archival temperature measurements from the 1850s onward to investigate how and why water temperatures in the lower Columbia River are changing. To infill data gaps and explore changes, we develop regression models of daily historical Columbia River water temperature using time‐lagged river flow and air temperature as the independent variables. Models were developed for three time periods (mid‐19th, mid‐20th, and early 21st century), using archival and modern measurements (1854–1876; 1938–present). Daily and monthly averaged root‐mean‐square errors overall are 0.89°C and 0.77°C, respectively for the 1938–2018 period. Results suggest that annual averaged water temperature increased by 2.2°C ± 0.2°C since the 1850s, a rate of 1.3°C ± 0.1°C/century. Increased water temperatures are seasonally dependent. An increase of approximately 2.0°C ± 0.2°C/century occurs in the July–Dec time‐frame, while springtime trends are statistically insignificant. Rising temperatures change the probability of exceeding ecologically important thresholds; since the 1850s, the number of days with water temperatures over 20°C increased from ~5 to 60 per year, while the number below 2°C decreased from ~10 to 0 days/per year. Overall, the modern system is warmer, but exhibits less temperature variability. The reservoir system reduces sensitivity to short‐term atmospheric forcing. Statistical experiments within our modeling framework suggest that increased water temperature is driven by warming air temperatures (~29%), altered river flow (~14%), and water resources management (~57%).

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Fourth Oregon climate assessment report. State of climate science : 2019

Cited by 13 publications

References 138 publications

Geomorphic and Sedimentary Effects of Modern Climate Change: Current and Anticipated Future Conditions in the Western United States

Geomorphic and Sedimentary Effects of Modern Climate Change: Current and Anticipated Future Conditions in the Western United States

Sixth Oregon climate assessment

Warming of the lower Columbia River, 1853 to 2018

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