Framing, equivalence, and rational inference

Mandel, David R.

doi:10.1017/s0140525x22000954

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…This is why the term framing in the title of this article was set in scare quotes. If "half survive" and "half die" are interpreted as "at least half survive" and "at least half die," then they are no longer frames in a strict sense (Frisch 1993;Kühberger 1998;Mandel 2001Mandel , 2008Mandel , 2022Mandel , 2023. The replicability of the behavioral effect, moreover, which is not in question (e.g., Klein et al 2014;Kühberger 1998), does nothing to resolve the issue, and pointing to it merely obfuscates the theoretical and methodological problems that we describe.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

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When Half Is at Least 50%: Effect of “Framing” and Probability Level on Frequency Estimates

Mandel,

Kelly

2024

Behavioral Decision Making

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Expert judgment often involves estimating magnitudes, such as the frequency of deaths due to a pandemic. Three experiments (Ns = 902, 431, and 755, respectively) were conducted to examine the effect of outcome framing (e.g., half of a threatened group expected to survive vs. die), probability level (low vs. high), and probability format (verbal, numeric, or combined) on the estimated frequency of survivals/deaths. Each experiment found an interactive effect of frame and probability level, which supported the hypothesis that forecasted outcomes received by participants were implicitly quantified as lower bounds (i.e., “at least half”). Responding in a manner consistent with a lower‐bound “at least” interpretation was unrelated to incoherence (Experiments 1 and 2) and positively related to numeracy (Experiments 1 and 3), verbal reasoning (Experiment 3), and actively open‐minded thinking (Experiments 2 and 3). The correlational results indicate that implicit lower bounding is an aspect of linguistic inference and not a cognitive error. Implications for research on framing effects are discussed.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…Convenient as it may be, researchers are not at liberty to decree by fiat that two statements are equivalent if people reading the statements disagree. Yet this is precisely what has happened in framing research for several decades(Fisher and Mandel 2021;Mandel 2022;Mandel and Vartanian 2011;Teigen 2011).…”

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confidence: 96%

When Half Is at Least 50%: Effect of “Framing” and Probability Level on Frequency Estimates

Mandel,

Kelly

2024

Behavioral Decision Making

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“…Researchers are not at liberty to simply decree by fiat that two statements are equivalent if people reading the statements disagree. Yet this is precisely what has When Half is At Least 50% happened in framing research for several decades (Fisher & Mandel, 2021;Mandel, 2022;Mandel & Vartanian, 2011;Teigen, 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

When Half is At Least 50%: Effect of “Framing” and Probability Level on Frequency Estimates

Mandel¹,

Irwin²

2023

Preprint

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Expert judgment often involves estimating magnitudes, such as the frequency of deaths due to a pandemic. Two experiments (Ns = 902 and 431, respectively) were conducted to examine the effect of outcome framing (half of a threatened group expected to survive vs. die), probability level (low vs. high), and probability format (verbal, numeric range, or combined) on the estimated frequency of survivals/deaths. Both experiments found an interactive effect of frame and probability level that supported the hypothesis that forecasted outcomes received by participants were implicitly quantified as lower bounds (i.e., half interpreted as “at least half”). Responding in a manner consistent with a lower-bound “at least” interpretation was not related to numeracy, verbal reasoning ability, or actively open-minded thinking, although each of these individual difference measures was inversely related to violations of coherence. This suggests that implicit lower bounding is not a cognitive error but rather an aspect of linguistic inference. Methodological and theoretical implications for research on framing effects is discussed.

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“…A formulation effect requires that the alternative frames refer to the same events, which are "merely" redescribed. All interesting claims about strict framing effects follow from this requirement (Mandel, 2014(Mandel, , 2022. If the requirement is not met, descriptive claims about preference reversals and normative claims about irrational decision-making do not follow, even if the standard "framing" effects are demonstrated time and again.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Subjective equivalence: A basic requirement for strict framing effects: Commentary on Huizenga et al. (2023).

Mandel¹

2023

Decision

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Framing, equivalence, and rational inference

Cited by 7 publications

References 252 publications

When Half Is at Least 50%: Effect of “Framing” and Probability Level on Frequency Estimates

When Half Is at Least 50%: Effect of “Framing” and Probability Level on Frequency Estimates

When Half is At Least 50%: Effect of “Framing” and Probability Level on Frequency Estimates

Subjective equivalence: A basic requirement for strict framing effects: Commentary on Huizenga et al. (2023).

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