Free-riders to forerunners

Hasselmann, Klaus; Cremades, Roger; Filatova, Tatiana; Hewitt, Richard J.; Jaeger, Carlo; Kovalevsky, Dmitry V.; Voinov, Alexey; Winder, Nick

doi:10.1038/ngeo2593

Cited by 14 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The lessons for policy are clear. Firstly, public incentives for climate mitigation must be tightly ring-fenced, included as a specific clause in any bail-out agreement, like those which followed the European debt crisis after 2009, or, better-still, tied to a 'Green Deal' or 'Green Marshall Plan', where struggling economies with RE development potential are supported by direct investment, low-interest loans, and cross-country skills transfers from stronger partner countries (Creutzig et al, 2014;Hasselmann et al, 2015). It is encouraging that the EU's post-Covid-19 recovery measures are linked, in general terms, to the European Green Deal, and though specific details are lacking, signs of a post Covid-19 recovery boost to clean energy are already emerging in some member states (D'Adamo et al, 2020).…”

Section: Is4: Renewable Austeritymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In fact, these measures of value are based on outdated methods of economic equilibrium and on limited measures of the economy like gross domestic product, and hence provide little help on the development of positive futures based on what humanity values in the broader sense (see e.g. Hasselmann et al, 2015). Attempts to account for some of the limitations of the SSPs regarding policy led to the development of a third tier, after RCPs and SSPs, known as 'shared climate policy assumptions' (SPAs), which describe certain policy-making assumptions that help to compare and couple modelling exercises (Kriegler et al, 2014).…”

Section: Why We Need Scenarios Of Climate Policy Implementationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Beyond shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs): climate policy implementation scenarios for Europe, the US and China

et al. 2020

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Section: Is4: Renewable Austeritymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Why We Need Scenarios Of Climate Policy Implementationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs): climate policy implementation scenarios for Europe, the US and China

et al. 2020

Self Cite

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“…Policy instruments, such as feed-in-tariffs, are in general not well represented in IAMs, making it difficult to explicitly model interactions between national governments and none-state actors. Actor-based models would be better able to translate the mental models of policymakers with respect to the assumed behavior of important economic actors into quantitative numerical simulation models including the response of actors to the proposed policies (Hasselman et al, 2015), but most of these models focus on relatively small regions or only cover parts of the energy system (De Cian et al, 2017).…”

Section: Limitations Of Integrated Assessment Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated assessment of international climate mitigation commitments outside the UNFCCC

Roelfsema

Harmsen

Olivier

et al. 2018

Global Environmental Change

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In the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), for the first time, non-state actors were addressed in the international negotiations and were explicitly invited to act on climate change. Indeed, there are many transnational emission reduction initiatives (TERIs) outside the UNFCCC, driven by non-state actors or national governments, which aim at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Using an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), this study assessed the potential impact of a selection of large TERIs that existed before the Paris Agreement on global greenhouse gas emissions. TERIs could lead to significant emission reductions: the eleven selected initiatives included in the analysis here couldif fully implementeddeliver annual GHG emission reductions of 2.5 GtCO 2 eq by 2020 and of 5.0 GtCO 2 eq by 2030 from a no-policy-baseline emission level of 53.7 GtCO 2 and 61.1 GtCO 2 eq, respectively. Although these reductions are of similar magnitude as those pledged by countries under the umbrella of the UNFCCC, these reductions may significantly overlap with those of pledges and Nationally Determined Contributions. The maximum estimate of overlap is around 70% by 2020 and 80% by 2030. This means that the combined impact on global GHG emissions of TERIs and NDCs, assuming a maximum overlap, would lead to emission levels between 53 and 55 GtCO 2 eq by 2030, compared to a level of 54 to 56 GtCO 2 eq resulting from NDCs alone.

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“…Policy makers should look to identify regions where such competition is likely, and try to tailor the policy design process to avoid unintended consequences (see, e.g. Deal and Pallathucheril, 2009), and maximise compatibility and multi-functionality (de Boer et al, 2015, de Groot, 2006, by exploring the options for "win-win" solutions (Hasselmann et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating actor dynamics with land use cellular automata for modelling climate and environmental policy implementation at regional level

Kovalevsky¹,

Hewitt²

2020

Preprint

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Successful implementation of environmental policies, including climate adaptation and mitigation policies, requires careful consideration of regional and local conditions. Consequently, there is growing understanding that regional models are needed to support climate and environmental policy making. Such models need to take into account the dynamics of geographical space as well as historic and expected future land use change patterns. One relevant geographical modelling approach is based on cellular automata (CA) which has a prominent track record of successful application to a diverse range of geographical problems. Traditionally, CA models are calibrated to reproduce the footprint of actor decision-making manifested in historical land use dynamics, and then projected forward to explore the effect of the observed dynamics on future periods. However, this is a poor representation of the way the world actually works, since policy decisions reflect current needs and priorities, not historic ones. Such a model cannot help us understand how decision-making actors might respond spontaneously to emerging land use outcomes. For these reasons, we believe there is considerable scope for existing CA-based geographical models to be improved by introducing realistic representations of the dynamic behaviour of decision-making actors. We present a modelling approach which retains the well-attested benefits of CA land use models, but which allows greater flexibility in modelling the dynamic behaviour of actors for particular “policy driven” land uses. To implement our approach, we integrate the APoLUS model (APoLUS stands for Actor, Policy and Land Use Simulator) – an open-source, multi-platform model based on geographical CA – with a system dynamics (SD) model describing the actor dynamics. The SD model is tailored to reproduce the dynamics of interaction (and possible conflicting interests) of a number of aggregate actors that might influence regional development in general and might affect (either in positive or in negative way) the implementation of policy under study in particular. In the present paper, we describe new developments in the actor dynamics model family, progressing beyond earlier work in three key ways: (i) incorporating the 2 possible ‘regime shifts’ that might be related, in particular, to election cycles; (ii) describing in more detail the economic drivers of actor dynamics; (iii) introducing the stochasticity in a SD model.

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Free-riders to forerunners

Abstract: Multi-actor integrated assessment models based on well-being concepts beyond GDP could support policymakers by highlighting the interrelation of climate change mitigation and other important societal problems.

Cited by 14 publications

References 14 publications

Beyond shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs): climate policy implementation scenarios for Europe, the US and China

Beyond shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs): climate policy implementation scenarios for Europe, the US and China

Integrated assessment of international climate mitigation commitments outside the UNFCCC

Integrating actor dynamics with land use cellular automata for modelling climate and environmental policy implementation at regional level

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