FREEDOM II: An improved methodology to assess domino effect frequency using simulation techniques

Assessment of domino effect: State of the art and research Needs

“…Further progress in the field allows the frequency assessment of multilevel escalation scenarios, e.g. by the use of statistical tools such as Bayesian analysis (Khakzad et al, 2013) and Monte Carlo simulations (Abdolhamidzadeh et al, 2010;Rad et al, 2014). The discussion of such approaches is needed to understand the state of the art of domino risk assessment.…”

“…The study by Abdolhamidzadeh et al (2010) presents a methodology based on Monte Carlo simulations aimed at the assessment of domino scenarios frequencies in industrial facilities. Monte Carlo simulations may avoid the combinatorial calculations needed to assess domino scenarios, but in order to obtain significant results in extended lay-outs needs huge computational resources due to the need to carry out more than 10 6 simulations (Abdolhamidzadeh et al, 2010;Rad et al, 2014). Nevertheless, the procedure was proposed also to assess accident frequencies of multilevel domino scenarios (Rad et al, 2014), although at the present state of development, when applied to such scenarios, it may only provide frequencies of domino scenarios and is not suitable for risk calculations.…”

“…Monte Carlo simulations may avoid the combinatorial calculations needed to assess domino scenarios, but in order to obtain significant results in extended lay-outs needs huge computational resources due to the need to carry out more than 10 6 simulations (Abdolhamidzadeh et al, 2010;Rad et al, 2014). Nevertheless, the procedure was proposed also to assess accident frequencies of multilevel domino scenarios (Rad et al, 2014), although at the present state of development, when applied to such scenarios, it may only provide frequencies of domino scenarios and is not suitable for risk calculations. The assessment of higher level domino scenarios confirms that such events, although having a rather low frequency, due to their high potential impact in perspective should be included in the risk assessment of domino scenarios (Cozzani et al, 2014;Rad et al, 2014).…”

“…Nevertheless, the procedure was proposed also to assess accident frequencies of multilevel domino scenarios (Rad et al, 2014), although at the present state of development, when applied to such scenarios, it may only provide frequencies of domino scenarios and is not suitable for risk calculations. The assessment of higher level domino scenarios confirms that such events, although having a rather low frequency, due to their high potential impact in perspective should be included in the risk assessment of domino scenarios (Cozzani et al, 2014;Rad et al, 2014).…”

Domino Effect Analysis, Assessment and Prevention in Process Industries

“…The shortcoming of the FREEDOM is its inability to handle multiple failure scenarios. Rad et al [56] proposed a new method to assess the frequency of domino accidents called FREEDOM II, which overcame the limitation of FREEDOM and extended its capabilities. In the algorithm of FREEDOM II, a desired number of hypothetical random experiments were performed to determine the overall escalation probabilities, and the value of increased frequency for each scenario in a multi-unit system was calculated.…”