Frequency analyses of extreme precipitation events in Western Black Sea Basin (Turkey) based on climate change projections

Balov, Mustafa Nuri; Altunkaynak, Abdüsselam

doi:10.1002/met.1776

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…As a consequence of these events, technical failures and disasters may occur, which in turn often give rise to big losses for society and the economy [9,12,17,20,31,37,38]. Scientific reports show an increased risk caused by extreme meteorological phenomena in recent years in different regions of the world, including intense precipitation [13,15,21,39,42]. Nevertheless, there are still not enough publications on the temporal and spatial variability of EDPr in different climatic zones, particularly in the warm temperate transitional zone to which the present study is dedicated.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Scandinavia, daily and multi-day intense precipitation are likely to rise by 60% in 2071-2100 according to the RCP4.5 scenario, or even by 100% according to the RCP8.5 scenario [20]. On the other hand, by the end of the present century, in the north of Turkey the frequency of storms will have risen on average by 29% according to the RCP4.5 scenario, and by about 37% according to RCP8.5 [21]. In Central Europe, the biggest increase in intense precipitation by the year 2100 will occur in the winter season.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk of Natural Hazards Caused by Extreme Precipitation in Poland in 1951–2020

Kalbarczyk,

Kalbarczyk

2024

Water

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Extreme precipitation of a minimum daily value of >30 mm often initiates natural hazards such as floods, which in turn may not only lead to property damage but also present a danger to people’s health and lives. This paper mainly focuses on examining the trends and frequency of extreme daily precipitation (EDPr) in Poland. Also, it determines natural risk zones caused by EDPr of >30 mm, >50 mm, >70 mm, and >100 mm. In Poland, a significant positive trend was found for EDPr > 30 mm, >50 mm, and >70 mm in September, and for EDPr >100 mm in May. The most frequently recorded EDPr in Poland was >30 mm, the frequency of which ranged from 0.04% in February to nearly 3% in July. EDPr of >100 mm was recorded in 4 months, from May to August. An increase in the frequency of monthly EDPr in Poland occurred mainly in the southwestern and western parts. In Poland, three hazard zones of various frequencies of EDPr events were determined. In Zone III, which is in the southwestern and southern parts of the country, EDPr events occurred far more often than in Zone I; on average, four times more in the spring–summer season and slightly more than five times more in the autumn–winter season. The obtained results may help in the building of modern management and monitoring systems for the prevention of natural hazards caused by extreme precipitation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of Natural Hazards Caused by Extreme Precipitation in Poland in 1951–2020

Kalbarczyk,

Kalbarczyk

2024

Water

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“…Yet, increasing nonstationarity can be one of the reasons of the extreme precipitation that the region faces. Balov and Altunkaynak (2018) [56] also reported an increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, however, these results vary spatially for the western Black Sea region. They also found that the method selected for calculation, such as annual maxima or peak over the threshold, can influence the results.…”

Section: Figure 4 Map Of Non-stationary Effect -Hourly Storm Durations -Model 1-2-3 Respectivelymentioning

confidence: 95%

Non-stationary Investigation of Extreme Rainfall

Oruc

2021

Civ Eng J

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Natural or human-induced variability emerged from investigation of the traditional stationary assumption regarding extreme precipitation analyses. The frequency of extreme rainfall occurrence is expected to increase in the future and neglecting these changes will result in the underestimation of extreme events. However, applications of extremes accept the stationarity that assumes no change over time. Thus, non-stationarity of extreme precipitation of 5, 10, 15, and 30 minutes and 1-, 3-, 6-, and 24-hour data of 17 station in the Black Sea region were investigated in this study. Using one stationary and three non-stationary models for every station and storm duration, 136 stationary and 408 non-stationary models were constructed and compared. The results are presented as non-stationarity impact maps across the Black Sea Region to visualize the results, providing information about the spatial variability and the magnitude of impact as a percentage difference. Results revealed that nonstationary (NST) models outperformed the stationary model for almost all precipitation series at the 17 stations. The model in which time dependent location and scale parameter used (Model 1), performed better among the three different time variant non-stationary models (Model 1 as time variant location and scale parameters, Model 2 as time variant location parameter, and Model 3 as time variant scale parameter). Furthermore, non-stationary impacts exhibited site-specific behavior: Higher magnitudes of non-stationary impacts were observed for the eastern Black Sea region and the coastal line. Moreover, the non-stationary impacts were more explicit for the sub-hourly data, such as 5 minutes or 15 minutes, which can be one of the reasons for severe and frequent flooding events across the region. The results of this study indicate the importance of the selected covariate and the inclusion of it for the reliability of the model development. Spatial and temporal distribution of the nonstationary impacts and their magnitude also urges to further investigation of the impact on precipitation regime, intensification, severity. Doi: 10.28991/cej-2021-03091748 Full Text: PDF

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“…For Turkey, for instance, the projections showed that a decrease is expected in southern parts and a slight increase in the northern parts in the total yearly precipitation amount [3]. On the other hand, as a result of global warming the capacity of the atmosphere to hold water has been increased which lead to an increase in the global precipitation [4][5][6][7][8][9]. In this context, a common way to have a knowledge of future extreme precipitation events is to investigate the trend in the longduration time series of historical records [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

Balov¹

2021

International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET

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The recent increase in the frequency and intensity of the floods resulted from huge precipitation events in Bursa Province, Turkey, is the main motivation of this study. For this purpose, the daily precipitation values from the historical data recorded between 1971 and 2000 together with the projected data of the NorESM1-M general circulation model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios between 2031 and 2100 were used to calculate eight extreme precipitation events. The Spearman's rho and the Mann-Kendall trend tests were used to detect the trend in the indices. The results of the trend tests showed that any change is not expected in the total amount of the yearly precipitation amount, whereas the occurrence of the intense and short duration precipitation events is expected to be more probable by the end of the current century, compared to the last 30 years of the previous century. The positive significant trends were detected in some indices. However, the magnitude of the change in the climatic parameters and the increase in the number of extreme precipitation events cannot solely explain the increase in the number of destroying flood events in the province. Other parameters such as the dramatic increase in urbanization as a result of rapid population growth during the past years (since 1960) may have a more prominent effect on the increase of the flood risk in the province which is in need of comprehensive modeling and investigation.

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Frequency analyses of extreme precipitation events in Western Black Sea Basin (Turkey) based on climate change projections

Cited by 5 publications

References 72 publications

Risk of Natural Hazards Caused by Extreme Precipitation in Poland in 1951–2020

Risk of Natural Hazards Caused by Extreme Precipitation in Poland in 1951–2020

Non-stationary Investigation of Extreme Rainfall

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

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