Frequency of occurrence of moderate to great earthquakes in intracontinental regions: Implications for changes in stress, earthquake prediction, and hazards assessments

Triep, Enrique G.; Sykes, Lynn R.

doi:10.1029/96jb03900

Cited by 114 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…JAUME´and SYKES (1999) investigated the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes during earlier and later periods of several observed accelerating moment/energy release sequences and found that b values were lower in the later periods. TRIEP and SYKES (1997) found a lower b value for events with M ‡ 7.0 which occurred in Asia during 1900-1957, than the b value calculated for the same area for the period 1957-1994. They associated this change with the giant Himalayan earthquake in 1950 of M ¼ 8.6.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 56%

“…Certain patternrecognition earthquake prediction algorithms are mainly based on long-distance correlation and seismic activation (KEILIS-BOROK, 1990). TRIEP and SYKES (1997) studying strong earthquakes with M ‡ 7.0 in Asia found a high seismicity rate prior to the 1950 Himalayan event (M ¼ 8.6). SORNETTE and SORNETTE (1990) suggested that the generation of the accelerating moderate magnitude seismicity can be considered as a critical phenomenon culminating in a large event considered as a critical point.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Time Variation of Parameters Related to the Accelerating Preshock Crustal Deformation in the Aegean Area

Karakaisis¹,

Savvaidis²,

Papazachos³

2003

Pure and Applied Geophysics

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-The time variation of two parameters related to accelerating seismic deformation before strong earthquakes in the Aegean area is examined. The first is the b parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter relation and the second is the curvature parameter C, which is a measure of deviation of the accelerating preshock deformation from a linear time variation of this deformation. Following two different procedures, it was found that the b value exhibits a decreasing trend prior to the oncoming earthquake, in agreement with the results of laboratory experiments and other independent observations. C values also show a decreasing trend before main shocks. These results indicate that such time variations of these parameters can be considered as precursory phenomena of ensuing strong earthquakes.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 56%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time Variation of Parameters Related to the Accelerating Preshock Crustal Deformation in the Aegean Area

Karakaisis¹,

Savvaidis²,

Papazachos³

2003

Pure and Applied Geophysics

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“…Between 1993 and 1996, I used the combination of ISC and NEIC hypocenters listed in the Harvard catalog, which consists primarily of NEIS locations. Earthquake locations for the 647 (M -> 5.0; depth _<45 km) events taken from the Triep-Sykes catalog are as given by Triep and Sykes [1997]. Because many of the depths listed in both catalogs are fixed or poorly determined, depth information was used only in the selection of events to include in the study; calculated distances between events are epicentral distances.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Foreshock occurrence before large earthquakes

Reasenberg¹

1999

J. Geophys. Res.

142

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Abstract. Rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M -> 6 and M _> 7 mainshocks and M _> 5 foreshocks were measured in two worldwide catalogs over -20-year intervals. The overall rates observed are similar to ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California. The aftershock model was extended to the case of moderate foreshocks preceding large mainshocks. Overall, the observed worldwide foreshock rates exceed the extended California generic model by a factor of-2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events, a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, had a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, had a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have found low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggests the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich. If this is so, then the California generic model may significantly underestimate the conditional probability for a very large (M _> 8) earthquake following a potential (M _> 7) foreshock in Cascadia. The magnitude differences among the identified foreshock-mainshock pairs in the Harvard catalog are consistent with a uniform distribution over the range of observation. IntroductionShort-term earthquake clustering, including the occurrence of foreshocks and aftershocks, is a widely observed phenomenon in shallow crustal seismicity. Nearly half of all earthquakes (most of them aftershocks) are included in short-term clusters [Reasenberg, 1985;Davis and Frohlich, 1991;Ogata et al., 1995]. Moderate or strong earthquakes are occasionally followed by stronger shocks nearby within a few days. This clustering makes possible short-term probabilistic earthquake forecasts after any earthquake based on triggered stochastic models [Kagan and Knopoff, 1987] in which the occurrence times of the triggered events are Poissonian (with varying rate), while their rate, magnitude distribution, and geographic distribution are empirically determined from the clustering behavior observed in the historic seismicity. After a moderate earthquake in an urbanized area, the increased probability of an imminent, larger earthquake is of great concern. For example, after a moderate (M = 5-6) earthquake in e...

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“…In the majority of the studies carried out within the critical point concept, evidence is presented for growth in the size of the largest earthquakes as the time of the mainshock is approached, which may result in lower b values (Triep and Sykes 1997;Jaumé and Sykes 1999;Mora and Place 1999;Rundle et al 1999;Jaumé 2000;Du and Sykes 2001;Ben-Zion et al 2003;Karakaisis et al 2003;Jaumé and Bebbington 2004;Zöller et al 2006). There exist, however, observations which show that accelerating seismicity is mainly due to a progressive increase in the number (rate) of moderate magnitude events resulting in progressively higher a values (Knopoff et al 1996;Jaumé et al 2000;Rundle et al 2000;Bowman and Sammis 2004;Sammis et al 2004).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Present patterns of decelerating–accelerating seismic strain in South Japan

et al. 2009

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Decelerating generation of preshocks in a narrow (seismogenic) region and accelerating generation of other preshocks in a broader (critical) region, called decelerating-accelerating seismic strain (D-AS) model has been proposed as appropriate for intermediate-term earthquake prediction. An attempt is made in the present work to identify such seismic strain patterns and estimate the corresponding probably ensuing large mainshocks (M ≥ 7.0) in south Japan (30)(31)(32)(33)(34)(35)(36)(37)(38) • N, 130-138 • E). Two such patterns have been identified and the origin time, magnitude, and epicenter coordinates for each of the two corresponding probably ensuing mainshocks have been estimated. Model uncertainties of predicted quantities are also given to allow an objective for-

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Frequency of occurrence of moderate to great earthquakes in intracontinental regions: Implications for changes in stress, earthquake prediction, and hazards assessments

Cited by 114 publications

References 46 publications

Time Variation of Parameters Related to the Accelerating Preshock Crustal Deformation in the Aegean Area

Time Variation of Parameters Related to the Accelerating Preshock Crustal Deformation in the Aegean Area

Foreshock occurrence before large earthquakes

Present patterns of decelerating–accelerating seismic strain in South Japan

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