From abstract futures to concrete experiences: How does political ideology interact with threat perception to affect climate adaptation decisions?

Schwaller, Nora Louise; Kelmenson, Sophie; BenDor, Todd K.; Spurlock, Danielle

doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2020.07.001

Cited by 21 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…Of the eight flood experience indicators five are reported as insignificant, two as having a positive impact on migration, and one as having a negative impact on migration. Positive impacts of flood experience on migration are found in US studies by Paxson and Rouse (2008) and Schwaller et al (2020), for experience with home flooding specifically. Home flooding can cause serious economic damage and experiencing it first-hand can strongly increase risk perceptions of flooding, as explained by the availability heuristic (Botzen et al, 2021), which can promote migration behavior.…”

Section: Floodingmentioning

confidence: 86%

Anticipating sea‐level rise and human migration: A review of empirical evidence and avenues for future research

Duijndam

Botzen

Hagedoorn

et al. 2021

WIREs Climate Change

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Sea‐level rise (SLR) threatens millions of people living in coastal areas through permanent inundation and other SLR‐related hazards. Migration is one way for people to adapt to these coastal changes, but presents an enormous policy challenge given the number of people affected. Knowledge about the relationship between SLR‐related hazards and migration is therefore important to allow for anticipatory policymaking. In recent years, an increasing number of empirical studies have investigated, using survey or census data, how SLR‐related hazards including flooding, salinization, and erosion together with non‐environmental factors influence migration behavior. In this article, we provide a systematic literature review of this empirical work. Our review findings indicate that flooding is not necessarily associated with increased migration. Severe flood events even tend to decrease long‐term migration in developing countries, although more research is needed to better understand the underpinnings of this finding. Salinization and erosion do generally lead to migration, but the number of studies is sparse. Several non‐environmental factors including wealth and place attachment influence migration alongside SLR‐related hazards. Based on the review, we propose a research agenda by outlining knowledge gaps and promising avenues for future research on this topic. Promising research avenues include using behavioral experiments to investigate migration behavior under future SLR scenarios, studying migration among other adaptation strategies, and complementing empirical research with dynamic migration modeling. We conclude that more empirical research on the SLR‐migration nexus is needed to properly understand and anticipate the complex dynamics of migration under SLR, and to design adequate policy responses. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics < Aggregation Techniques for Impacts and Mitigation Costs Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change < Learning from Cases and Analogies Assessing Impacts of Climate Change < Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change

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Section: Floodingmentioning

confidence: 86%

Anticipating sea‐level rise and human migration: A review of empirical evidence and avenues for future research

Duijndam

Botzen

Hagedoorn

et al. 2021

WIREs Climate Change

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“…Local communities would, thus, be allowed to fully understand the risk posed by climate change. Updating community beliefs is a complex learning process that can be supported by public policies [59][60][61].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Expectations of Future Natural Hazards in Human Adaptation to Concurrent Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin

Boero

Talsma

Oliveto

et al. 2022

Climate

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Human adaptation to climate change is the outcome of long-term decisions continuously made and revised by local communities. Adaptation choices can be represented by economic investment models in which the often large upfront cost of adaptation is offset by the future benefits of avoiding losses due to future natural hazards. In this context, we investigate the role that expectations of future natural hazards have on adaptation in the Colorado River basin of the USA. We apply an innovative approach that quantifies the impacts of changes in concurrent climate extremes, with a focus on flooding events. By including the expectation of future natural hazards in adaptation models, we examine how public policies can focus on this component to support local community adaptation efforts. Findings indicate that considering the concurrent distribution of several variables makes quantification and prediction of extremes easier, more realistic, and consequently improves our capability to model human systems adaptation. Hazard expectation is a leading force in adaptation. Even without assuming increases in exposure, the Colorado River basin is expected to face harsh increases in damage from flooding events unless local communities are able to incorporate climate change and expected increases in extremes in their adaptation planning and decision making.

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“…The relationship between political party and adaptation behavioral willingness has not been deeply explored to date. Many studies on adaptation behavior have not reported the effects of political party or ideology (e.g., Koerth et al, 2013;Semenza et al, 2011;Valois et al, 2020), and other research has suggested that party has no significant effect on behavioral intention (Schwaller et al, 2020) or that the effects are indirect via climate change risk perceptions (e.g., A. van Valkengoed & Steg, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring Americans' support for adapting to ‘climate change' or 'extreme weather'

Carman¹,

Lacroix²,

Goldberg³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Climate communicators can use the terms climate change or extreme weather to describe climate change adaptation strategies. However, the terms might differentially affect individuals’ support for those strategies. We examined Americans’ (N = 1,558) endorsement of climate change adaptation behaviors and policies based on whether they were described using climate change or extreme weather. Republicans’ endorsement of some adaptation behaviors and policies was lower when using the term climate change compared with extreme weather, but there were no such differences among Independents and those not affiliated with a political party. In contrast, Democrats’ reported willingness to engage in collective adaptation behaviors and support for policies related to protecting natural spaces was higher when using the term climate change. The appropriateness of using climate change or extreme weather is situational depending on both the audience and the behaviors and policies being communicated.

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From abstract futures to concrete experiences: How does political ideology interact with threat perception to affect climate adaptation decisions?

Cited by 21 publications

References 80 publications

Anticipating sea‐level rise and human migration: A review of empirical evidence and avenues for future research

Anticipating sea‐level rise and human migration: A review of empirical evidence and avenues for future research

Expectations of Future Natural Hazards in Human Adaptation to Concurrent Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin

Measuring Americans' support for adapting to ‘climate change' or 'extreme weather'

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