From crude law to civil relations: The dynamics and potential resolution of intractable conflict.

Abstract

A formal model that captures the basic processes at work in the development and transformation of intractable conflict is presented. The formal model translates the insights of Deutsch's Crude Law of Social Relations, which distills the principles underlying a highly diverse set of research findings into parameters that can be explored through computer simulations. The results of the simulations show emergent consequences that were not anticipated in the verbal version of the law. Local mechanisms are found to be crucial for determining global dynamics of conflict. Conflicts grow exponentially in places with the highest incompatibility of interests, and spread from these places. Conflicts escalate to intractability by altering social orientations in

Ten Major Scientific Contributions that Promote a More Just, Peaceful, and Sustainable World

“…Mort thus labeled this a “crude” law, because, although the predicted effects were not always consistently evident, the findings from this research were highly robust. The crude law dynamics were subsequently validated through other research and mathematical modeling (see Nowak et al ), and today this is known as one of the first cases of studying self‐reinforcing social dynamics in psychological research on conflict – an approach much more prevalent today with the advent of computer simulation modeling.…”

Conflict Intelligence and Systemic Wisdom: Meta‐Competencies for Engaging Conflict in a Complex, Dynamic World

“…Dynamical systems theory (DST) offers a variety of new ways of researching (see Bui‐Wrozinska ; Coleman and Kugler ; Redding ), analyzing (see Burns ; Nowak et al ; Coleman ), and intervening in conflict (see Ricigliano ; Coleman, Redding, and Fisher , ; Coleman and Ricigliano ) using computer modeling and visualization tools (see Liebovitch, Vallacher, and Michaels ; Nowak et al ), and nonlinear monitoring and evaluation (see Wilson‐Grau and Britt ). Importantly, proponents of DST encourage combining new theoretical models with dynamical data collection and model verification and computer visualization tools in a manner that can help to refine models and discover new aspects of social dynamics (Vallacher and Nowak ).…”

“…The second core competency associated with employing systemic wisdom in conflict is the capacity to conduct and interpret complexity visualizations. In recent years, systems‐oriented peace builders have begun to visualize the complex systems in which they work in a variety of ways, including using mathematical modeling and computer visualization (e.g., Liebovitch et al ; Nowak et al ), cellular automata (e.g., Nowak et al ) and multiagent‐based modeling (Mussavi Rizi, Latek, and Geller ). Today, the most prevalent complexity visualization method used with conflict stakeholders is “causal loop diagramming” (CLD).…”

How Do Life, Economy and Other Complex Systems Escape the Heat Death?

“…In [17] a model have been developed which, generalizing the AB model, describes the emergent consequences of the assumptions of the Crude Law, as applied to interactions within and between social groups. The results of the simulations show collective phenomena that could not be anticipated in the original formulation of the law that was limited only to individual psychological facts: Autocatalytic herding and spatial localization mechanisms are found to be crucial for determining global dynamics of conflict.…”