From Design of Experiments to Combinatorics of Disasters: A Conceptual Framework for Disaster Exercises

Garn, Bernhard; Kieseberg, Klaus; Celic, Berina; Simos, Dimitris E.

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-24866-5_2

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Such end-user focused software has also been developed for CT, for example, IBM Functional Coverage Unified Solution [ 60 ] or the software offered by the company Hexawise [ 61 ]. The proposed disaster exercise generation methodology described in this paper is currently only implemented in research prototype tools, but we have already presented a holistic overall conceptual framework for disaster exercises in [ 62 ] comprising the modeling, generation, and post-analysis of conducted exercises. In order to enable low-barrier access and easy usage of combinatorial sequence testing methods within various disaster management organizations, we envision a future implementation of this framework—containing, in particular, an implementation of the methodology proposed in this work—in an end-user focused software solution, combining concepts of situational awareness dashboards and statistical experiments software.…”

Section: Mathematical Problem Formulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combinatorial Sequences for Disaster Scenario Generation

Garn¹,

Kieseberg²,

Schreiber³

et al. 2023

Oper. Res. Forum

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Training exercises are an important tool in crisis management, as they can assist in a multitude of tasks, such as planning pre-crisis resource requirements and allocation, response planning and help train emergency personnel for actual crises. To be effective, the exercises have to utilize well constructed scenarios and be able to replicate certain characteristics of a crisis situation. In this paper, we propose a conceptual mathematical modeling approach for the automated generation of scenarios for disaster exercises via certain combinatorial sequence structures. The derived scenarios within an exercise collectively fulfill different notions of combinatorial sequence coverage, thereby providing the means to test existing response strategies for deficiencies as well as to train emergency personnel for their ability to handle different arrangements of events. This guaranteed diversity by construction can be used as a basis to obtain quantitative assurance statements when these scenarios have been successfully mastered by participants in exercises. We illustrate our proposed approach utilizing two different combinatorial structures for two example disasters.

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Section: Mathematical Problem Formulationmentioning

confidence: 99%