From devil’s advocate to crime fighter: confirmation bias and debiasing techniques in prosecutorial decision-making

Lidén, Moa; Gräns, Minna; Juslin, Peter

doi:10.1080/1068316x.2018.1538417

Cited by 16 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Interventions can range from fast and frugal options to intensive training sessions (Sellier et al, 2019 ). Information managers and decision-makers can be trained to counter-check their assumptions by actively seeking disconfirming information and considering the opposite of their preliminary hypothesis (Satya-Murti and Lockhart, 2015 ; Lidén et al, 2019 ). Future research needs to test the effectiveness of such interventions in crisis settings.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Interplay of Data and Cognitive Bias in Crisis Information Management

et al. 2022

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Humanitarian crises, such as the 2014 West Africa Ebola epidemic, challenge information management and thereby threaten the digital resilience of the responding organizations. Crisis information management (CIM) is characterised by the urgency to respond despite the uncertainty of the situation. Coupled with high stakes, limited resources and a high cognitive load, crises are prone to induce biases in the data and the cognitive processes of analysts and decision-makers. When biases remain undetected and untreated in CIM, they may lead to decisions based on biased information, increasing the risk of an inefficient response. Literature suggests that crisis response needs to address the initial uncertainty and possible biases by adapting to new and better information as it becomes available. However, we know little about whether adaptive approaches mitigate the interplay of data and cognitive biases. We investigated this question in an exploratory, three-stage experiment on epidemic response. Our participants were experienced practitioners in the fields of crisis decision-making and information analysis. We found that analysts fail to successfully debias data, even when biases are detected, and that this failure can be attributed to undervaluing debiasing efforts in favor of rapid results. This failure leads to the development of biased information products that are conveyed to decision-makers, who consequently make decisions based on biased information. Confirmation bias reinforces the reliance on conclusions reached with biased data, leading to a vicious cycle, in which biased assumptions remain uncorrected. We suggest mindful debiasing as a possible counter-strategy against these bias effects in CIM.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Interplay of Data and Cognitive Bias in Crisis Information Management

et al. 2022

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“…Research involving actual interrogators found similar effects. When police officers formulated questions for suspects described in vignettes, they opted to use more guilt-presumptive questions after learning that a suspect had been apprehended (Lidén, Gräns, & Juslin, 2019).…”

Section: Stage 1: Precustodial Interviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cumulative Disadvantage: A Psychological Framework for Understanding How Innocence Can Lead to Confession, Wrongful Conviction, and Beyond

Scherr

Redlich

Kassin

2020

Perspect Psychol Sci

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False confessions are a contributing factor in almost 30% of DNA exonerations in the United States. Similar problems have been documented all over the world. We present a novel framework to highlight the processes through which innocent people, once misidentified as suspects, experience cumulative disadvantages that culminate in pernicious consequences. The cumulative-disadvantage framework details how the innocent suspect’s naivete and the interrogator’s presumption of guilt trigger a process that can lead to false confession, the aftereffects of which spread to corrupt evidence gathering, bias forensic analysis, and virtually ensure wrongful convictions at trial or through pressured false guilty pleas. The framework integrates nascent research underscoring the enduring effects of the accumulated disadvantages postconviction and even after exoneration. We synthesize findings from psychological science, corroborating naturalistic evidence, and relevant legal precedents to explain how an innocent suspect’s disadvantages can accumulate through the actions of law enforcement, forensic examiners, prosecutors, defense attorneys, judges, juries, and appeals courts. We conclude with prescribed research directions that can lead to empirically driven reforms to address the gestalt of the multistage process.

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“…Only a handful are experimental studies (e.g. Darwinkel et al, 2015;Lidén et al, 2019;Pezdek & O'Brien, 2014). Most of these studies investigate the influences of various case characteristics in sexual assault cases.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Netherlands imply that judges often try to corroborate the prosecutors' decisions by actively looking for confirming evidence (Tersago et al, 2020) or that judges focus on excluding alternative scenarios rather than finding the scenario that best explains the evidence (Maegherman, 2021). Also, Swedish prosecutors displayed a guilt-confirming mindset once they have charged a suspect (Lidén et al, 2019). Since the structure of the law of criminal procedure triggers psychological mechanisms in prosecutors and judges, thereby shaping the decisions of both, the initial preference for the incriminating story may not be compensated for in the trial (e.g.…”

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confidence: 99%

Alternative stories and the decision to prosecute: an applied approach against confirmation bias in criminal prosecution

Schmittat

Englich

Sautner

et al. 2021

Psychology, Crime & Law

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In many legal systems, preliminary proceedings and the prosecutor's charging decision predict the outcome of the trial, as reflected in high conviction rates. This charging decision is mostly based on the final police report, which is primarily aimed to substantiate the given suspicion and may lead to a preponderance of incriminating evidence. We investigated if a written statement by the defense (an alternative story) can balance out this information disparity and can alter the charging decision. Building on classical debiasing methods, the Story Model and narrative persuasion, we hypothesized that an alternative story reduces the likelihood of being charged, because the police report becomes less unique. Participants of three experiments (criminal-law students, N = 684) received either only the police report, or the police report plus an alternative story (vs. a statement merely claiming innocence) and were asked to make charging decisions. The presence of prior conviction evidence (PCE) was varied. Results show that 1) an alternative story reduces (and PCE increases) the likelihood of being charged, 2) a statement merely claiming innocence is less but still effective, and 3) PCE effects were small and inconsistent. Underlying mechanisms, implications for criminal procedural law, and applicability to adversarial systems are discussed.

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From devil’s advocate to crime fighter: confirmation bias and debiasing techniques in prosecutorial decision-making

Cited by 16 publications

References 41 publications

On the Interplay of Data and Cognitive Bias in Crisis Information Management

On the Interplay of Data and Cognitive Bias in Crisis Information Management

Cumulative Disadvantage: A Psychological Framework for Understanding How Innocence Can Lead to Confession, Wrongful Conviction, and Beyond

Alternative stories and the decision to prosecute: an applied approach against confirmation bias in criminal prosecution

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