From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation an Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration a New York Case Study

Abstract

We introduce firm solar forecasts as a strategy to operate optimally overbuilt solar power plants in conjunction with optimally sized storage systems so as to make up for any power prediction errors, and hence entirely remove load balancing uncertainty emanating from grid-connected solar fleets. A central part of this strategy is the plant overbuilding that we term implicit storage. We show that strategy, while economically justifiable on its own account, is an effective entry step to achieving least-cost ultra-high solar penetration where firm power generation will be a prerequisite. We demonstrate that in the absence of an implicit storage strategy, ultra-high solar penetration would be vastly more expensive. Using the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) as a case study, we determine current and future costs of firm forecasts for a comprehensive set of scenarios in each ISO electrical region, comparing centralized vs. decentralized production and assessing load flexibility’s impact. We simulate the growth of the strategy from firm forecast to firm power generation. We conclude that ultra-high solar penetration enabled by the present strategy, whereby solar would firmly supply the entire NYISO load, could be achieved locally at electricity production costs comparable to current NYISO wholesale market prices.

Firm Photovoltaic Power Generation: Overview and Economic Outlook

“…IEA Task 16 investigated two types firm power generation for VREs: 1) firm power generation at high renewable penetration, which is concerned with meeting the entire demand of a power grid, or a significant fraction thereof, i.e., displacing the underlying conventional dispatchable generation core as discussed earlier; and 2) firm power support, which is an "entry level" firm power generation that addresses easier-to-meet firm load targets, such as day-ahead VRE production forecasts, or net-load imbalances, as pathway to begin operationalizing firm power. [15,16] The remaining part of this section focuses on reviewing selected high renewable penetration investigations most directly relevant to energy transition focus of this article.…”

Rooftop Solar PV Policy Assessment of Global Best Practices and Lessons Learned for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

“…Since the beginning of this century, Italy has been one of the top countries, with Germany and Spain, to have an exceptional growth of solar panel installations. As shown in Figure 6, Italy accomplished its most significant growth with 22.7 GW of installed solar energy capacity in 2021, giving it a leading position in solar generation for the time being [16,27,28]. Furthermore, as a national goal, Italy set a target of 50 GW to reach by the year 2030 [29].…”

Ancillary Services via Flexible Photovoltaic/Wind Systems and “Implicit” Storage to Balance Demand and Supply

“…In the same direction, Perez et al [ 25 ] and Pierro et al [ 26 ] proposed a USA–Italy scalable strategy for a low‐cost RE transition starting from perfect forecast (i.e., removing prediction uncertainty) to wind solar firm generation (i.e., removing variability and intermittency). The same authors [ 27 ] analyzed the impact of flexible PV fleet displacement on the previous mentioned strategy considering different levels of PV penetration and flexibility. Cebulla et al [ 28 ] applied the linear model REMix to compute the storage power and energy capacity in the EU to reach 89% of the RE energy share.…”