From planning to implementation: explaining connections between adaptive management and population models

Lahoz‐Monfort, José J.; Guillera‐Arroita, Gurutzeta; Hauser, Cindy E.

doi:10.3389/fevo.2014.00060

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 39 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…More data are required to determine which factors increase bycatch rates and which are the critical areas with highest impact, and it is crucial to then apply measures such as time restrictions on fishing activity, bycatch mitigation technology and practices, as well as the education of stakeholders and consumers. Finally, it is essential to set up demographic long‐term studies, to allow researchers to diagnose with reliability the effectiveness of all those actions and to apply an adaptive management process (Lahoz‐Monfort, Guillera‐Arroita & Hauser ). Although this would require long‐term financial investment, these studies would also be relevant to a wide range of seabirds and marine predators, as well as to the whole marine ecosystem.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demography of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater: the impact of fisheries and time to extinction

Genovart

Arcos²,

Álvarez

et al. 2016

Journal of Applied Ecology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Summary World‐wide, many seabirds are affected by fisheries in opposing ways: as a source of mortality from bycatch, but also by providing discards as a predictable and abundant food resource. This applies to the Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus, the most endangered European seabird, whose time to extinction was estimated at only ˜40 years a decade ago. Since the previous assessment, new data and more sophisticated demographic modelling have become available, and new fishing policies from the European Union (Common Fisheries Policy, CFP) will apply, posing different scenarios for the viability of the species. Thus, there is both an urgent need and an opportunity for a more reliable update of the conservation status of the species. Demographic data were collected between 1985 and 2014 at one of the world's largest colonies. Most demographic parameters were estimated using multievent capture–recapture modelling. Some parameters, such as bycatch rate, immature individual survival and recruitment, were estimated for the first time. We incorporated estimates into stochastic population models to forecast time to extinction and assess the viability under different management scenarios, accounting for upcoming fishing policies. Adult survival was much lower than expected (0·809, SE: 0·013) and largely influenced by bycatch, which accounted for a minimum of 0·455 (SE: 0·230) of total mortality. Breeding success was positively correlated with discard availability. Recruitment started at low rates in 3‐year‐old birds (0·030, SE: 0·0455), increasing in following age classes and was almost complete at 6 years. Under the present scenario, we predict a time to extinction of 61 years (95% CI: 55–69). Synthesis and applications. Population projections suggest that the actual impact of fisheries on Balearic shearwaters is unsustainable and the imminent discard ban under the new Common Fisheries Policy may accelerate the declining trend. This study demonstrates that reducing the bycatch rates of fisheries is an unavoidable and urgent conservation measure for avoiding the extinction of the species. We also advise setting up demographic long‐term studies, to allow researchers to diagnose, with reliability, the effectiveness of management actions. These actions will also benefit many other marine top‐predator species affected by this anthropogenic impact.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demography of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater: the impact of fisheries and time to extinction

Genovart

Arcos²,

Álvarez

et al. 2016

Journal of Applied Ecology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…) and site‐specific conditions such as soil characteristics, fire regimes and local management practices (Haymes and Fox ), which are also crucial for the natural regeneration and sustainability of longleaf pine ecosystems (Brockway and Lewis , Lahoz‐Monfort et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Life cycle and masting of a recovering keystone indicator species under climate fluctuation

Guo

Zarnoch

Chen

et al. 2016

Ecosyst Health Sustain

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Ecosystem health and sustainability, to a large degree, depend on the performance of keystone or dominant species. The role of climate on population dynamics of such species has been extensively examined, especially for health indicator species. Yet the life‐cycle processes and response lags for many species could complicate efforts to detect clear climate signals. Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) is such a keystone tree species in the southeastern United States that has declined in both abundance and distribution during the past century. Despite research efforts on multiple fronts, the mechanisms behind the large spatial and temporal fluctuations in cone production that affects its regeneration are largely unknown. On the basis of long‐term (15–56 yr) monitoring data at 10 sites across the species' native range, we examine the spatial and temporal patterns in cone production and possible climatic effects on those patterns using the information‐theoretic approach. Cone production exhibited great variation across sites and years, and long‐term data revealed a weak, ca. 3 yr cycle (4 in one case) across the native range. The effects of climate were rather complex, most likely due to a mismatch between the prolonged cone‐production life‐cycle process and climatic fluctuation. Spatially, sites close to each other generally showed similar physical conditions and temporal trends in cone production. Across sites within longleaf pine's range, moderate climate conditions appear to promote cone production. At most sites, there was an increasing trend in cone production, but how such a trend might be linked to climate change requires further investigation.

show abstract

“…Estimates of demographic parameters and statistics that depend on classification data are frequently used in conservation, monitoring, and adaptive management (Bassar et al, 2010;Lahoz-Monfort, Guillera-Arroita, & Hauser, 2014). Sex ratios are used in hunting and fishing regulations because optimal harvest yields depend on age and sex composition (Bender, 2006;Hauser, Cooch, & Lebreton, 2006;Jensen, 1996;Murphy & Smith, 1990).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A hierarchical Bayesian approach for handling missing classification data

Ketz

Johnson

Hooten

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Ecologists use classifications of individuals in categories to understand composition of populations and communities. These categories might be defined by demographics, functional traits, or species. Assignment of categories is often imperfect, but frequently treated as observations without error. When individuals are observed but not classified, these “partial” observations must be modified to include the missing data mechanism to avoid spurious inference. We developed two hierarchical Bayesian models to overcome the assumption of perfect assignment to mutually exclusive categories in the multinomial distribution of categorical counts, when classifications are missing. These models incorporate auxiliary information to adjust the posterior distributions of the proportions of membership in categories. In one model, we use an empirical Bayes approach, where a subset of data from one year serves as a prior for the missing data the next. In the other approach, we use a small random sample of data within a year to inform the distribution of the missing data. We performed a simulation to show the bias that occurs when partial observations were ignored and demonstrated the altered inference for the estimation of demographic ratios. We applied our models to demographic classifications of elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) to demonstrate improved inference for the proportions of sex and stage classes. We developed multiple modeling approaches using a generalizable nested multinomial structure to account for partially observed data that were missing not at random for classification counts. Accounting for classification uncertainty is important to accurately understand the composition of populations and communities in ecological studies.

show abstract

From planning to implementation: explaining connections between adaptive management and population models

Cited by 10 publications

References 39 publications

Demography of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater: the impact of fisheries and time to extinction

Demography of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater: the impact of fisheries and time to extinction

Life cycle and masting of a recovering keystone indicator species under climate fluctuation

A hierarchical Bayesian approach for handling missing classification data

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About