From Route Structure to Human Factors: A Comprehensive Study of Safe Separation on Intersecting Air Routes

Abstract

The assessment of collision risk at intersecting air routes is a crucial method for determining safe separation during aircraft route flights. This paper employs the Monte Carlo method to analyze the operational characteristics of aircraft on intersecting air routes in two stages, integrating the influence of the human-operated adjustment process on the distance between the two aircrafts, so as to propose a collision risk assessment model more aligned with the actual operational process. The initial stage considers the positional errors to establish a distance distribution function between trailing and leading aircraft when the latter reaches the intersection. The subsequent stage calculates the minimum distance between the aircraft by combining the kinematic equations with the controller’s thinking and reactions, communications, the pilot’s reactivity, and time required for aircraft maneuvering. Ultimately, based on the intersection course configuration, Monte Carlo simulations were employed to assess the impact of variables, such as magnetic course and aircraft speed distribution, on collision risk. The study’s findings highlight the significance of aircraft positioning capabilities and speed maintenance performance. It also reveals that the collision risk results, simulated from various perspectives, offer a theoretical foundation for the development of intersecting air routes.