From Shocks to Waves: Hegemonic Transitions and Democratization in the Twentieth Century

Abstract

What causes democratic waves? This article puts forward a theory of institutional waves that focuses on the effects of systemic transformations. It argues that abrupt shifts in the distribution of power among leading states create unique and powerful incentives for sweeping domestic reforms. A variety of statistical tests reveals strong support for the idea that shifts in hegemonic power have shaped waves of democracy, fascism, and communism in the twentieth century, independent of domestic factors or horizontal diffusion. These "hegemonic shocks" produce windows of opportunity for external regime imposition, enable rising powers to rapidly expand networks of trade and patronage, and inspire imitators by credibly revealing hidden information about relative regime effectiveness to foreign audiences. I outline these mechanisms of coercion, influence, and emulation that connect shocks to waves, empirically test their relationship, and illustrate the theory with two case studies-the wave of democratic transitions after World War I, and the fascist wave of the late interwar period. In sum, democracy in the twentieth century cannot be fully understood without examining the effects of hegemonic shocks.

A Two-Step Theory and Test of Democratic Waves

“…The result that diffusion increases the likelihood that an autocracy transitions to democracy after a breakdown could be driven exclusively by the post-Cold War period. Moreover, as discussed in the theory section, in some instances common political shocks may drive authoritarian breakdowns, such as in the case of the abandonment of the Brezhnev doctrine (see Gunitsky, 2014). Therefore, Tables A6 and A7 redo models 1 and 2 of Table 4 and Table 5, respectively, with a dummy variable for the post-Cold War period.…”

“…In this paper, we focus on the role of economic shocks to explain the breakdown of authoritarian regimes. However, political shocks, such as the abandonment of the Brezhnev doctrine, may also induce regime reversals (e.g., seeGunitsky, 2014). We account for these types of shocks in Tables A6-A9 of the online appendix.…”

The Unintended Consequences of Democracy Promotion: International Organizations and Democratic Backsliding

“…For example, at the system-level, Gunitsky finds evidence of "hegemonic shocks" whereby changes in the relative distribution of power among leading states in the international system can create opportunities for regime imposition that lead to waves of domestic political and institutional shifts. The nature of the domestic reforms is conditioned on the political identity of the emerging hegemon (Gunitsky, 2014). Boix, too, finds that systemic changes condition the extent to which development leads to democracy (Boix, 2011).…”

International Trade And Democracy: How Trade Partners Affect Regime Change And Persistence

“…Hegemonic Shocks Gunitsky (2014) suggests that the e↵ects of trade are conditional on hegemonic shocks. Changes of hegemony in world politics create windows of opportunities that reshape the political map and create globalization waves.…”