From site-level to regional adaptation planning for tropical commodities: cocoa in West Africa

Abstract

The production of tropical agricultural commodities, such as cocoa (Theobroma cacao) and coffee (Coffea spp.), the countries and communities engaged in it, and the industries dependent on these commodities, are vulnerable to climate change. This is especially so where a large percentage of the global supply is grown in a single geographical region. Fortunately, there is often considerable spatial heterogeneity in the vulnerability to climate change within affected regions, implying that local production losses could be compensated through intensification and expansion of production elsewhere. However, this requires that site-level actions are integrated into a regional approach to climate change adaptation. We discuss here such a regional approach for cocoa in West Africa, where 70 % of global cocoa supply originates. On the basis of a statistical model of relative climatic suitability calibrated on West African cocoa farming areas and average climate projections for the 2030s and 2050s of, respectively, 15 and 19 Global Circulation Models, we divide the region into three adaptation zones: (i) a little affected zone permitting intensification and/or expansion of cocoa farming; (ii) a moderately affected zone requiring diversification and agronomic adjustments of farming practices; and (iii) a severely affected zone with need for progressive crop change. We argue that for tropical agricultural commodities, larger-scale adaptation planning that attempts to balance production trends across countries and regions could help reduce negative impacts of climate change on regional economies and global commodity supplies, despite the institutional challenges that this integration may pose.

Human Appropriated Net Primary Productivity of Complex Mosaic Landscapes

“…The most important strategy for decreasing HANPP in cocoa dominated landscapes is to encourage the cultivation of shade trees. Research has also shown that cocoa yields can increase with increasing canopy cover provided by shade trees (Schroth et al, 2017;Asare et al, 2019), further strengthening the case that the key to climate smart strategies for cocoa is the presence of shade trees. Increasing shade tree cover not only reduces HANPP, but has other benefits including increased biodiversity and possibly more resilience of the cocoa crop to climate extremes and regional warming (Rice and Greenberg, 2000;Schroth et al, 2016).…”

Characterization of cocoa production, income diversification and shade tree management along a climate gradient in Ghana

“…Cote d’Ivoire, the world largest cocoa producer, has also experienced a similar shift with such extreme climate event being a contributing factor to geographic shifts in production areas [ 8 ]. Such spatial and temporal variations in climatic events allow for the identification of farmers responses to climate change [ 4 , 8 , 9 ]. An increase in dry season maximum temperatures together with seasonal droughts are the main projected impacts of climate change within the West African cocoa belt [ 4 , 10 , 11 ].…”

“…The variability in current climatic conditions within the cocoa belt of Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire has resulted in different levels of climate suitability [ 10 ]. Different types of climate change adaptation including incremental, systemic and transformative adaptation would be required at different locations within the cocoa belt of West Africa depending on the projected climatic changes [ 9 ]. Good to very good cocoa climate suitability is projected to continue shifting cocoa production to the more wet forest regions by 2050 [ 4 , 9 , 10 ].…”

Exploring Cocoa Farm Land Use in the West African Region

“…The crop stands as the key component in chocolate products consumed throughout the globe [35]. Thus, being in the tropics where cocoa is grown and harvested, West Africa accounts for more than 70% of world cocoa production [36,37]. As such, cocoa farming has, therefore, become a major economic activity in many parts of West Africa, employing millions of small-scale farmers [33].…”

“…In the process, much of the ecological treasures especially the Guinean Rainforest (GRF) of West Africa, branded in the past two decades ago as a mega worldwide biodiversity epicenter or hot bed, had dropped to 18% of the original size at the beginning of the 21st of century. Having mentioned it earlier, the zone is renowned for its high cocoa output with a quartet of nations in West Africa, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroun responsible for 70% of international cocoa production in the past two decades [45,36]. Based on the rising levels of demands in the export markets, present estimates indicate that West Africa's cocoa output surged by 50% all through 1987 and 2007 with much of the increment triggered by far deeper encroachments on forested habitats, amounting to huge disappearances in biodiversity and elevated carbon discharges.…”