2007
DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1060.0668
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From Story Line to Box Office: A New Approach for Green-Lighting Movie Scripts

Abstract: Movie studios often have to choose among thousands of scripts to decide which ones to turn into movies. Despite the huge amount of money at stake, this process-known as green-lightingin the movie industry-is largely a guesswork based on experts' experience and intuitions. In this paper, we propose a new approach to help studios evaluate scripts that will then lead to more profitable green-lighting decisions. Our approach combines screenwriting domain knowledge, natural-language processing techniques, and stati… Show more

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Cited by 205 publications
(157 citation statements)
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References 26 publications
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“…12 Research has analyzed various factors that can contribute to a movie's success, including the movie's script (Eliashberg et al 2007), advertising (Rennhoff and Wilbur 2008), the presence of star actors (Elberse 2007), critical reviews (Eliashberg and Shugan 1997), user reviews (Dellarocas et al 2007, Duan et al 2008, screen distributions (Swami et al 1999), and seasonality and competition (Krider and Weinberg 1998), among others.…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…12 Research has analyzed various factors that can contribute to a movie's success, including the movie's script (Eliashberg et al 2007), advertising (Rennhoff and Wilbur 2008), the presence of star actors (Elberse 2007), critical reviews (Eliashberg and Shugan 1997), user reviews (Dellarocas et al 2007, Duan et al 2008, screen distributions (Swami et al 1999), and seasonality and competition (Krider and Weinberg 1998), among others.…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Because the latter is considered proprietary information, it is seldom made available, and usually must be estimated by industry sources based on production information (cast, crew, shooting location, etc.). It is worth noting that a truly profitable film typically has to earn about double its production cost (Eliashberg, Hui, & Zhang, 2006).…”
Section: The Success Triadmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For example, nothing has been said about nature of the plot or characters that make or break a film as judged by the criteria triad (but see Beckwith, 2007;Eliashberg, Hui, & Zhang, 2006).…”
Section: Productionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Scripts do not need to be created or commissioned, but producers need to identify the most promising ones. Major Hollywood studios employ freelance readers to evaluate scripts and provide a synopsis and educated recommendation whether to further develop the script or not (Eliashberg et al, 2007). Reasons why a script is rejected can be clearly identified (boring, clichéd, etc.…”
Section: Avoiding Risksmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Empirical approaches to content characteristics of creative work are rare since the value criteria are fuzzy and tastedepended. Eliashberg, Hui and Zhang (2007) identify "clear premise", "logical ending", "early exposition", and "coincidence avoidance" as the most relevant among 22 plot criteria using a classification and regression tree. However, these criteria explain less variance in the success than genre and formal aspects of a script.…”
Section: Reducing Risksmentioning
confidence: 99%