Fuel Panics: Insights From Spatial Agent-Based Simulation

Abstract

The United Kingdom has twice suffered major disruption as a result of fuel panics first in September 2000 coincident with a wave of fuel protests and more recently in March 2012 following politcal warnings of possible future supply chain disruption. In each case the disruption and economic consequences were serious. Fuel distribution is an example of a supply chain. Approaches to supply-chain planning based on linear programming are poorly suited to modelling non-equilibrium effects, while coarse-grained system dynamics models often fail to capture local phenomena which contribute to the evolution of global demand. In this Paper, we demonstrate that agent-based techniques offer a powerful framework for cosimulation of supply chains and consumers under conditions of transient demand. In the case of fuel panic crisis, we show that even a highly abstract model can reproduce a range of transient phenomena seen in the real world, and present a set of practical recommendations for policymakers faced with panic-buying.

Panic buying research: A systematic literature review and future research agenda

“…In addition, risk avoidance increases when the public has access to credible information from health authorities and medical knowledge (Sailer et al., 2020). Subsequently, communication between individuals, households and communities also contributes to mediating panic behaviour (Upton & Nuttall, 2014; Wijaya, 2020).…”

“…A positive effect occurs when the public follows government recommendations and accepts necessary interventional strategies (e.g., Bish & Michie, 2010). In addition, risk avoidance increases when the public has access to credible information from health authorities and medical knowledge (Sailer households and communities also contributes to mediating panic behaviour (Upton & Nuttall, 2014;Wijaya, 2020).…”

The coronavirus' effects on consumer behavior and supermarket activities: insights from Greece and Sweden

“…Consumers emulate other people's actions, as they feel psychological safety by exchanging group behaviors (Abel et al , 2016; Elhai et al , 2016). Product supply is vulnerable to unpredicted behavior in the face of sudden demand shifts, such as panic purchasing and stockpiling (Upton and Nuttall, 2014). The panic purchasing behavior of customers has the potential to exaggerate the effects of supply disruption (Peels et al , 2009).…”

COVID-19: fear appeal favoring purchase behavior towards personal protective equipment

“…Product supply is susceptible to oscillatory behavior when faced with abrupt changes in demand, such as panic buying and stockpiling (Upton & Nuttall, 2014). Consumers' panic buying has the potentials to exaggerates the consequences of supply disruption (Peels et al, 2009).…”