Fueling expansion in the third world: Population, development, debt, and the global decline of forests

Abstract

Recent studies indicate that large-scale deforestation may contribute to global warming and is a primary factor in the depletion of genetic material through extinction of plant and animal species. This study seeks to identify and estimate the importance of social factors affecting deforestation in the Third World. Using change scores in a linear regression analysis, the dependent variable, deforestation, is regressed on measures of rural population growth (1975)(1976)(1977)(1978)(1979)(1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985), change in agricultural development (1975)(1976)(1977)(1978)(1979)(1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985), and growth of national debt (1975)(1976)(1977)(1978)(1979)(1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985), while controlling for the original forest size (1975), total population (1975), and the original levels of development and debt (1975). Results, including 102 Third World countries, indicate that as both rural population and debt increase, so does deforestation. Increased agricultural development leads to less deforestation. Four countries-Brazil, Indonesia, India, and Colombia-are found to influence unduly the outcome of the regression. When these four countries are excluded from the analysis, only original forest size, rural population growth, change in debt, and original level of debt are significant. Increases in these variables are correlated with increased deforestation, except for original debt level, which is correlated negatively with deforestation.

Ecological Unequal Exchange: International Trade and Uneven Utilization of Environmental Space in the World System

“…Deforestation has been hypothesized to emanate from three sources; these include population dynamics, modernization forces, and dependency effects (Ehrhardt-Martinez 1998;Inman 1992). This review of the research literature begins with a focus upon previous studies evaluating the contingencies and dependency relations linked to position in the world-system and both the level of deforestation and the differential dynamics driving deforestation (Burns et al 1994(Burns et al , 2003(Burns et al , 2006Kick et al 1996;Jorgenson 2006).…”

“…This literature is directly relevant to the analyses presented in this chapter, and our efforts are substantially informed by and attempt to extend the line of inquiry. Subsequently, the focus is upon previous research oriented towards examining the demographic and socio-economic causes of forest cover change (EhrhardtMartinez 1998;Ehrhardt-Martinez, Crenshaw, and Jenkins 2002;Inman 1992;Rudel 2002).…”

“…Population growth typically increases human pressure upon forest resources and contributes to forest loss (Ehrhardt-Martinez 1998;Inman 1992;Rudel 1989;Rudel and Roper 1997). Deforestation is tied to more than simply aggregate population size, as rural population pressures in particular encroach upon forest reserves, contributing to deforestation within LDCs (Burns et al 1994;Ehrhardt-Martinez et al 2002;Inman 1992;Kick et al 1996).…”

“…Of relevance to dependency/world-systems research, debt dependency within LDCs is theorized to contribute to forest loss (Inman 1992;Kahn and McDonald 1995). External debt, in combination with the structural adjustment requirements imposed by supranational lenders, tends to foster increasing export-oriented natural resource extractive activities designed to facilitate loan repayment (Inman 1992).…”

“…External debt, in combination with the structural adjustment requirements imposed by supranational lenders, tends to foster increasing export-oriented natural resource extractive activities designed to facilitate loan repayment (Inman 1992). Previous research illustrates both level of debt (Inman 1992;Kahn and McDonald 1995) and increased debt over time (Inman 1992) is associated with forest cover change patterns. Research by Ehrhardt-Martinez et al (2002), however, fails to uncover a statistically significant association between debt and deforestation.…”