Fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment considering local site effects for the portfolio of buildings in Medellín, Colombia

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

Zuloaga³

et al. 2017

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The details of a multi-hazard and probabilistic risk assessment, developed for urban planning and emergency response activities in Manizales, Colombia, are presented in this article. This risk assessment effort was developed under the framework of an integral disaster risk management project whose goal was to connect risk reduction activities by using open access and state-of-theart risk models. A probabilistic approach was used for the analysis of seismic, landslide, and volcanic hazards to obtain stochastic event sets suitable for probabilistic loss estimation and to generate risk results in different metrics after aggregating in a rigorous way the losses associated to the different hazards. Detailed and high resolution exposure databases were used for the building stock and infrastructure of the city together with a set of vulnerability functions for each of the perils considered. The urban and territorial ordering plan of the city was updated for socioeconomic development and land use using the hazard and risk inputs and determinants, which cover not only the current urban area but also those adjacent areas where the expansion of Manizales is expected to occur. The emergency response capabilities of the city were improved by taking into account risk scenarios and after updating an automatic and real-time post-earthquake damage assessment.

Section: Probabilistic Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integration of Probabilistic and Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Within Urban Development Planning and Emergency Preparedness and Response: Application to Manizales, Colombia

Bernal¹,

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

Zuloaga³

et al. 2017

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“…Equation 1 shows that an event-based approach is required for the hazard representation because the associated occurrence frequencies are required along with the expected hazard intensities. More details on the loss assessment methodology can be found in Ordaz (2000) and Salgado-Gálvez et al (2014b). For the case of the water and sewage network, additional analyses were considered for particular feasible earthquakes in which the approach from the temporal perspective can be considered as deterministic, but which is still probabilistic from the loss estimation perspective (since the Fig.…”

Section: Loss Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment in Manizales, Colombia: Quantifying Losses for Insurance Purposes

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

Bernal²,

Zuloaga³

et al. 2017

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A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was developed in Manizales, Colombia, considering assets of different types. The first type includes elements that are part of the water and sewage network, and the second type includes public and private buildings. This assessment required the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that accounts for the dynamic soil response, assembling high resolution exposure databases, and the development of damage models for different types of elements. The economic appraisal of the exposed assets was developed together with specialists of the water utilities company of Manizales and the city administration. The risk assessment was performed using several Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment modules as well as the R-System, obtaining results in terms of traditional metrics such as loss exceedance curve, average annual loss, and probable maximum loss. For the case of pipelines, repair rates were also estimated. The results for the water and sewage network were used in activities related to the expansion and maintenance strategies, as well as for the exploration of financial retention and transfer alternatives using insurance schemes based on technical, probabilistic, and prospective damage and loss estimations.In the case of the buildings, the results were used in the update of the technical premium values of the existing collective insurance scheme.

“…When modeling earthquake risk, one must be aware of the large amount of uncertainties related mainly to the hazard and to the vulnerability (Ordaz 2000;Grossi 2004;Murphy et al 2011;Marulanda et al 2013;Salgado-Gálvez et al 2014b;Salgado-Gálvez et al 2015a). …”

Section: Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In summary, the seismic hazard is estimated at bedrock level and is represented through a set with more than 1,800 stochastic events and, spectral transfer functions are also defined for the different soil zones to account for the dynamic soil response which is not negligible in the city. The public and private building stock has more than 240,000 dwellings with different structural characteristics whose details can be found in Salgado-Gálvez et al (2014b) Based on the official demographic information (DANE and Alcaldía de Medellín 2010), age distribution by 5 year span ranges is available as shown in Table 1. With this information, it is now possible to estimate AAD i as presented in Table 2.…”

Section: Application At Urban Level In Medellín Colombiamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The results of lost productivity are compared against those previously estimated for the city that only considered the direct losses on the public and private building portfolio (Salgado-Gálvez et al 2014b) and it is shown how the ratio between the losses is higher than the unit, reason why this proposed approach should also be considered within a comprehensive seismic risk management framework.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Probabilistic estimation of annual lost economic production due to premature deaths because of earthquakes

Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal

Bernal

Barbat

et al. 2015

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This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis Group in Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal on 2016, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/10807039.2015.1095072A methodology to estimate, in a probabilistic way, the annual cost to society of premature deaths because of earthquakes is proposed in this article. The methodology makes use of results obtained by means of prospective and probabilistic seismic risk assessments where expected deaths caused by the collapse of buildings are obtained. Those results, combined with demographic and macroeconomic indicators such as the age distribution, life expectancy at birth, and per capita gross domestic product, are used to estimate the cost to society in terms of lost productivity due to premature mortality because of earthquakes. The proposed methodology does not attempt to estimate nor assign a cost to human lives at any stage, but the one associated to lost productivity at the societal level. One of the descriptors of the methodology is part of the components of the disability adjusted life year, a widely used metric in the public health field that estimates the burden of diseases based mostly on historical data. As an example, the methodology is applied to Medellin, the second largest city of Colombia, finding that the cost of lost productivity due to premature mortality because of earthquakes has a similar order of magnitude to the direct physical losses in the public and private building stock calculated in a previous probabilistic seismic risk assessment.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft