Purpose
The appearance of geographic atrophy (GA) on color photography (CP) is preceded by specific features on spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SDOCT). We aimed to build SDOCT-based risk assessment models for 5-year new onset of GA and central GA on CP.
Design
Prospective longitudinal study.
Participants
Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) patients with bilateral large drusen and/or non-central GA, and at least one eye without advanced disease (n=317) enrolled in the multicenter Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2) Ancillary SDOCT study.
Methods
For one eye per participant, qualitative and quantitative SDOCT variables were derived, respectively, from standardized grading and semi-automated segmentation at baseline. Up to 7 years later, annual outcomes were extracted and analyzed to fit multivariate logistic regression models and build a risk calculator.
Main Outcome Measures
New onset of CP-visible GA and central GA.
Results
Over a follow-up median of 4.0 years and among 292 AMD eyes (without advanced disease at baseline) with complete outcome data, 46 (15.8%) developed central GA. Among a subset of 265 eyes without any GA on baseline CP, 70 (26.4%) developed CP-visible GA. Final multivariate models were adjusted for age. In the model for GA, the independent predicting SDOCT factors (p <0.001 to 0.03) were (1) hyperreflective foci (HF) and (2) retinal pigment epithelium layer atrophy or absence (RPEA), followed by (3) choroidal thickness in absence of subretinal drusenoid deposits, (4) photoreceptor outer segment loss, (5) RPE drusen complex (RPEDC) volume and (6) RPEDC abnormal thinning (RAT) volume. For central GA, the independent predicting SDOCT factors (p<0.001) were (1) RAT volume, (2) intraretinal fluid or cystoid spaces, (3) HF, and (4) RPEA. The models yielded a calculator that computes the probabilities of CP-visible new-onset GA and central GA after 1 through 5 years.
Conclusions
For AMD eyes with large drusen and no advanced disease, we built a novel risk assessment model – based on age and SDOCT segmentation, drusen characteristics, and retinal pathology – for progression to CP-visible GA over up to 5 years. This calculator may simplify SDOCT grading and, with future validation, have a promising role as a clinical prognostic tool.