Fungus under a Changing Climate: Modeling the Current and Future Global Distribution of Fusarium oxysporum Using Geographical Information System Data

Abstract

The impact of climate change on biodiversity has been the subject of numerous research in recent years. The multiple elements of climate change are expected to affect all levels of biodiversity, including microorganisms. The common worldwide fungus Fusarium oxysporum colonizes plant roots as well as soil and several other substrates. It causes predominant vascular wilt disease in different strategic crops such as banana, tomato, palm, and even cotton, thereby leading to severe losses. So, a robust maximum entropy algorithm was implemented in the well-known modeling program Maxent to forecast the current and future global distribution of F. oxysporum under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) for 2050 and 2070. The Maxent model was calibrated using 1885 occurrence points. The resulting models were fit with AUC and TSS values equal to 0.9 (±0.001) and 0.7, respectively. Increasing temperatures due to global warming caused differences in habitat suitability between the current and future distributions of F. oxysporum, especially in Europe. The most effective parameter of this fungus distribution was the annual mean temperature (Bio 1); the two-dimensional niche analysis indicated that the fungus has a wide precipitation range because it can live in both dry and rainy habitats as well as a range of temperatures in which it can live to certain limits. The predicted shifts should act as an alarm sign for decision makers, particularly in countries that depend on such staple crops harmed by the fungus.

Biogeography of Fungal Communities Associated with Pinus sylvestris L. and Picea abies (L.) H. Karst. along the Latitudinal Gradient in Europe

“…In recent years, modeling the response of biodiversity to climate change has become an important research area [ 82 , 83 , 84 ]. For example, Alkhalifah et al [ 84 ] have used the same bioclimatic variables as in the present study to predict changes in the distribution of Fusarium oxysporum causing vascular wilt disease for several crops for two time periods spanning until 2050 and 2070.…”

“…In recent years, modeling the response of biodiversity to climate change has become an important research area [ 82 , 83 , 84 ]. For example, Alkhalifah et al [ 84 ] have used the same bioclimatic variables as in the present study to predict changes in the distribution of Fusarium oxysporum causing vascular wilt disease for several crops for two time periods spanning until 2050 and 2070. The distribution of F. oxysporum and the suitability of its habitats was determined by bioclimatic variables such as annual mean temperature (BIO1), temperature annual range (BIO7), annual precipitation (BIO12), mean diurnal range (BIO2), and precipitation of the driest month (BIO14).…”

Recent studies on Fusarium wilt in cotton

“…Climate change profoundly impacts the distribution and severity of Fusarium infections. Alkhalifah et al [91] employed geographic information system data and predictive modeling to project the future global distribution of F. oxysporum. The study illuminates how shifting environmental conditions under different climate scenarios could influence the prevalence of this pathogen and its associated diseases.…”

UV-A Radiation Stimulates Tolerance against Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. lycopersici in Tomato Plants

“…albedinis) and tomato (F. oxysporum f. sp. lycopersici) [3]. In addition, Fusarium species produce three classes of mycotoxins (trichothecenes, zearalenone, and fumonisins) that can cause health risks to humans and animals [4].…”