Further Evidence of a Possible Correlation Between the Severity of Covid-19 and BCG Immunization

Dolgikh, Serge

doi:10.1101/2020.04.07.20056994

Cited by 19 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Covid-19 global Time Zero (TZ) was defined in [1] as 31.12.2020: Along with the global Time Zero was defined local Time Zero (LTZ) indicating the time of arrival of the epidemics in the given locality. It can be sensibly defined as the date of the first confirmed case in the area.…”

Section: Terminologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Covid-19 vs BCG: Statistical Significance Analysis

Dolgikh

2020

Preprint

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We present an updated time-adjusted dataset and conclusions at Covid19 Time Zero + 5 month (04.06.2020). The conclusions of the original analysis reviewed and mostly maintained at this time point. With the data accumulated to date a statistical significance of the BCG immunization correlation hypothesis is evaluated with the conclusion that it has achieved the level of confidence. Several specific cases are discussed with respect to the induced immunity hypothesis.

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Section: Terminologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Covid-19 vs BCG: Statistical Significance Analysis

Dolgikh

2020

Preprint

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“…Conn: connection intensity, range 0 .. 1, lower to higher connection intensity Bcg: BCG immunization record, range 0 .. 1. The value of 0 indicates current or very recent universal immunization policy; the value of 1 indicates no effective immunization policy and equivalent cases [2]. A value between 0 and 1 indicates a previous universal immunization policy relative to the time after cessation.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the study this translates to the beginning of April, 2020 for Wave 1 cases (LTZ in January, 2020) and beginning of May for Wave 2 (LTZ end of February to early March, 2020). A combined dataset of approximately forty cases was thus constructed based on the conditions outlined in [2], essentially, bringing together the cases with similar social and economic parameters to minimize the number of potentially influencing factors along with the expectation of certain minimal level of exposure to the epidemics and reliability of the reported data.…”

Section: Combined Case Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying Explosive Epidemiological Cases with Unsupervised Machine Learning

Dolgikh

2020

Preprint

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An analysis of a combined dataset of Wave 1 and 2 cases, aligned at approximately Local Time Zero + 2 months with unsupervised machine learning methods such as PCA and deep autoencoder dimensionality reduction allows to clearly separate milder background cases from those with more rapid and aggressive onset of the epidemics. The analysis and findings of the study can be used in evaluation of possible epidemiological scenarios and as an effective modeling tool to design corrective and preventative measures to avoid developments with potentially heavy impact.

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“…Flattening of incidence and mortality curves of coronavirus pandemic at each country officially ordering BCG vaccination within a month from the beginning of the wide spread, depending on the distinct correlation between universal BCG policy and COVOD-19 prevalence was the findings declared by more researchers [17], [18].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tuberculosis versus COVID-19 Mortality: A New Evidence

Al-Momen

Raham

Daher

2020

Open Access Maced J Med Sci

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BACKGROUND: Coronavirus current pandemic (COVID-19) is the striking subject worldwide hitting countries in an unexplained non-universal pattern. Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine was an adopted recent justification depending on its non-specific immune activation properties. Still the problem of post-vaccine short duration of protection needs to be solved. The same protective mechanism was identified in active or latent tuberculosis (TB). For each single patient of active TB, there are about nine cases of asymptomatic latent TB apparently normal individuals living within the community without restrictions carrying benefits of immune activation and involved in re-infection cycles in an excellent example of repeated immunity training sessions of the whole community. AIM: We aimed to asses the correlation between TB burden and COVID-19 mortality in all affected countries having different BCG vaccination policies. METHODS: Publicly available data were extracted for 191 countries including population size, TB estimations, national BCG vaccination policy, the World Health Organization regions and economic classification, and COVID-19 mortality and number of cases. The analysis was performed using Spearman’s correlation test. RESULTS: Significant large negative correlation (−0.539, p < 0.001) was found between TB prevalence and COVID-19 mortality rate worldwide. Medium negative significant correlations were found between TB cases and COVID-19 mortality in the high and lower middle-income countries, and those having current BCG vaccination programs (−0.395, p = 0.001, −0.365, p = 0.015, and −0.476, p < 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSION: Countries with high TB prevalence have higher chances of protection against COVID-19 mortality through the theory of widely distributed natural immune activation within community. Confounders should be assessed separately.

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Further Evidence of a Possible Correlation Between the Severity of Covid-19 and BCG Immunization

Cited by 19 publications

References 6 publications

Covid-19 vs BCG: Statistical Significance Analysis

Covid-19 vs BCG: Statistical Significance Analysis

Identifying Explosive Epidemiological Cases with Unsupervised Machine Learning

Tuberculosis versus COVID-19 Mortality: A New Evidence

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