Future Change Projections of Extreme Floods at Catchment Scale and Hydrodynamic Response of Its Downstream Lake Based on Catchment‐Waterbody Relationship Simulation

Abstract

Lakes are usually formed in low-lying areas by streamflow from their upstream catchments and play an important role in water supply and aquatic ecological balance (Hallouin et al., 2020). The hydrodynamics (e.g., water level, water storage and inundation area) of the lakes directly responses to the streamflow variation of their controlled catchments, which may cause severe economic losses due to lake inundation. The changes in the intensity and frequency of the extreme precipitation due to climate change (Hanel & Buishand, 2010;Kendon et al., 2014) can strongly influence catchment hydrological processes and result in increasing flood risk for the low-lying areas (Jahn, 2015;Monier & Gao, 2015). For example, the large-scale heavy precipitation in the summer of