Future Changes in Euro-Mediterranean Daytime Severe Thunderstorm Environments Based on an RCP8.5 Med-CORDEX Simulation

Abstract

Convective scale processes and, therefore, thunderstorm-related hazards cannot be simulated using regional climate models with horizontal grid spacing in the order of 10 km. However, larger-scale environmental conditions of these local high-impact phenomena can be diagnosed to assess their frequency in current and future climates. In this study, we present a daytime climatology of severe thunderstorm environments and its evolution for a wide Euro-Mediterranean domain through the 21st century, using regional climate model simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Currently, severe convective weather is more frequently favored around Central Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. Our results suggest that with a steady progress until the end of the century, Mediterranean coasts are projected to experience a significantly higher frequency of severe thunderstorm environments, while a slight decrease over parts of continental Europe is evaluated. The increase across the Mediterranean is mostly owed to the warming sea surface, which strengthens thermodynamic conditions in the wintertime, while local factors arguably keep the shear frequency relatively higher than the entire region. On the other hand, future northward extension of the subtropical belt over Europe in the warm season reduces the number of days with severe thunderstorm environments.

Performance Analyzes of Thermodynamic Indices and Atmospheric Parameters in Thunderstorm and Non-thunderstorm Days in Istanbul, Turkey

“…There are many studies in the literature in which TS analyzes were made for megacity Istanbul. In these studies, case analyzes (Baltaci et al, 2019;O ¨zdemir, 2021;Toker et al, 2021;Yavuz et al, 2020) and climatological analyzes (Kahraman et al, 2020;O ¨zdemir et al, 2017;Tanriover et al, 2015;Yavuz et al, 2022a) were performed. However, there is no study on the prediction of TSs with atmospheric stability parameters and thermodynamic indices.…”

Tropospheric monitoring using a low-cost GNSS receiver

“…The Mediterranean region has been identified as a climate change "hotspot" [1]. Coastal areas around the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) Sea experience severe convective storms very frequently in the last 10 years [2]. Cyclones are the main weather modulators in the Mediterranean region and constitute a major environmental risk, often producing windstorms and heavy rainfall.…”

Modelling extreme precipitation over the Dinaric Alps: An evaluation of the CNRM‐ALADIN regional climate model

“…The reduction in total precipitation and decrease in the number of wet days contrasts with the increase in extreme precipitation intensity (Sillmann et al ., 2013; Jacob et al ., 2014; Rajczak and Schär, 2017; Drobinski et al ., 2018; Tramblay and Somot, 2018). Furthermore, an increase in the frequency of environments favourable for severe convective storms can be expected by the end of the century (Púčik et al ., 2017), especially on the Mediterranean coast, mostly due to the increase in sea surface temperature (Kahraman et al ., 2020). However, several studies have emphasized that there are considerable uncertainties among climate projections (e.g., Déqué et al ., 2007; Rajczak and Schär, 2017), and one of the sources of the uncertainties is the RCMs themselves (e.g., Giorgi, 2019).…”