Future changes in monsoon duration and precipitation using CMIP6

Moon, Songchun; Ha, Kyung‐Ja

doi:10.1038/s41612-020-00151-w

Cited by 91 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…More recently, CMIP6 simulations have been investigated in terms of mean precipitation change at continental scale (Almazroui et al 2020) and for southern Africa (Sian 2021), and by extreme events over East Africa (Ayugi et al 2021a). In addition, Moon and Ha (2020) and Ukkola et al (2020) investigated future characteristics of (global) monsoon precipitation and meteorological droughts, respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models

et al. 2021

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We provide an assessment of future daily characteristics of African precipitation by explicitly comparing the results of large ensembles of global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate models, specifically highlighting the similarities and inconsistencies between them. Results for seasonal mean precipitation are not always consistent amongst ensembles: in particular, global models tend to project a wetter future compared to regional models, especially over the Eastern Sahel, Central and East Africa. However, results for other precipitation characteristics are more consistent. In general, all ensembles project an increase in maximum precipitation intensity during the wet season over all regions and emission scenarios (except the West Sahel for CORE) and a decrease in precipitation frequency (under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5) especially over the West Sahel, the Atlas region, southern central Africa, East Africa and southern Africa. Depending on the season, the length of dry spells is projected to increase consistently by all ensembles and for most (if not all) models over southern Africa, the Ethiopian highlands and the Atlas region. Discrepancies exist between global and regional models on the projected change in precipitation characteristics over specific regions and seasons. For instance, over the Eastern Sahel in July–August most global models show an increase in precipitation frequency but regional models project a robust decrease. Global and regional models also project an opposite sign in the change of the length of dry spells. CORE results show a marked drying over the regions affected by the West Africa monsoon throughout the year, accompanied by a decrease in mean precipitation intensity between May and July that is not present in the other ensembles. This enhanced drying may be related to specific physical mechanisms that are better resolved by the higher resolution models and highlights the importance of a process-based evaluation of the mechanisms controlling precipitation over the region.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models

et al. 2021

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“…However, the projected EASM circulation changes differ among the various studies. Furthermore, these studies have discussed the possible mechanisms of future summer precipitation changes in response to warming, but are mostly carried out at large spatial scales; for example, the global domain, or the whole of the EA region (Seager et al 2010;Hsu et al 2012Hsu et al , 2013Chen et al 2020;Moon and Ha 2020;Wang et al 2020). The changes in regional precipitation, particularly for the EASM, are more complex than changes in global precipitation due to location and other factors relevant to the EASM (Zhai et al 2005;Wu et al 2009;Zhao et al 2018;Li et al 2019b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future precipitation changes in three key sub-regions of East Asia: the roles of thermodynamics and dynamics

Zhao

Chen

et al. 2021

Clim Dyn

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Previous studies have projected an increase in future summer precipitation across East Asia (EA). This study investigates the relative contributions of thermodynamic and dynamic components to future precipitation changes in three key sub-regions of EA where the maximum centers of the historical precipitation are located (the tropical region, East China, and the Japan and Korea sector), and analyzes the causes of the changes in thermodynamic and dynamic components. Outputs from 30 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are used. From these, the five best-performing models for historical summer precipitation climatology for EA are selected. The future summer precipitations in the three sub-regions over the near- to mid-term (2020–2069) and the long-term (2070–2095) are then examined using the multi-model ensemble mean of the five models selected (MMM05). The projections were driven by four combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and forcing levels of the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The results show that long-term precipitations under SSP5-8.5 are greater than those under the other scenarios across all sub-regions. After the 2070s under SSP5-8.5, a marked precipitation intensification is identified in all three sub-regions, but with different rates of increase. The projected precipitation increase is primarily attributed to the thermodynamic component, while the dynamic component related to circulation changes is relatively weak. Further analysis indicates that the pattern of the thermodynamic component in the three sub-regions is dominated by the climatological upward motion, mediated by an increase in moisture.

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“…Overall it is likely that glacier ablation zones will be exposed for longer periods under future climate due to a net decrease of the snow covered duration, with a resulting increase in total ablation. A lengthening of the monsoon into autumn, on the other hand, (Moon and Ha, 2020) would somewhat offset warmer air temperatures with regards to the late-season melt for all glacier types.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…While there is broad model consensus on the increase in future precipitation, there is little consensus on the future variability, frequency and spatial distribution of precipitation across High Mountain Asia (Kadel et al, 2018;Sanjay et al, 2017), which is likely a result of complex and poorly understood drivers of past monsoon changes (Saha et al, 2014;Saha and Ghosh, 2019), coarse resolution of the baseline products and topographic variability in the region (Sanjay et al, 2017). A slight shift towards an earlier monsoon onset of <5 days over the coming century together with an increasing shift towards a later retreat by 5 to 10 days (mid-century) and 10 to 15 days (end-century) might increase the length of the monsoon period, with stronger lengthening in the Eastern Himalaya (Moon and Ha, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding monsoon controls on the energy and mass balance of Himalayan glaciers

Fugger

Fyffe

Fatichi

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. The Indian and East Asian Summer Monsoons shape the melt and accumulation patterns of glaciers in High Mountain Asia in complex ways due to the interaction of persistent cloud cover, large temperature amplitudes, high atmospheric water content and high precipitation rates. While the monsoons dominate the climate of the southern and eastern regions, they progressively lose strength westward towards the Karakoram, where the influence of Westerlies is predominant. Despite the major role of the monsoon in the Himalayas, a holistic understanding of their influence on the region's glaciers is lacking because previous applications of energy- and mass-balance models have been limited to single study sites. In this study, we use a full energy- and mass-balance model and seven on-glacier automatic weather station datasets from different parts of the Himalayas to investigate how monsoon conditions influence the glacier surface energy and mass balance. In particular, we look at how debris-covered and debris-free glaciers respond differently to monsoonal conditions. The radiation budget mostly controls the melt of clean-ice glaciers, but turbulent fluxes also play an important role in modulating the melt energy on debris-covered glaciers. The sensible heat flux reduces during core monsoon, but the latent heat flux removes energy from the surface due to evaporation of liquid water. This interplay of radiative and turbulent fluxes, together with compensations between increasing and decreasing melt rates over the diurnal cycle, causes debris-covered glacier melt rates to stay almost constant over the entire ablation period through the different phases of the monsoon. Ice melt under thin debris, on the other hand, is amplified by both the dark surface albedo and the turbulent fluxes, which act as a source of energy through surface heating and condensation, especially during monsoon. Pre-monsoon snow cover can considerably delay melt onset and have a strong impact on the seasonal mass balance. Intermittent monsoon snow cover further modulates the melt rates at high elevation. Given our results, we expect the mass balance of debris-covered glaciers to react less sensitively to projected future monsoon conditions than clean-ice and dirty-ice glaciers. This work is fundamental to the understanding of the present and future Himalayan cryosphere and water budget evolution, while informing and motivating further glacier- and catchment-scale research using process-based models (Yang et al., 2017).

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Future changes in monsoon duration and precipitation using CMIP6

Cited by 91 publications

References 41 publications

Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models

Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models

Future precipitation changes in three key sub-regions of East Asia: the roles of thermodynamics and dynamics

Understanding monsoon controls on the energy and mass balance of Himalayan glaciers

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