Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Associated with Tropical Cyclones Projected by Large-Ensemble Simulations

Endo, Hirokazu

doi:10.2151/jmsj.2019-007

Cited by 26 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Moreover, TCs have both a low occurrence frequency and large internal variability. The number of runs used to generate the ensemble in the present study may have been insufficient, although our results are qualitatively consistent with the results of a large-ensemble simulation using a GCM (Yoshida et al 2017;Kitoh and Endo 2019). The present results show that downscaling with a high-resolution RCM is a promising approach to the accurate evaluation of TC precipitation.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

“…On the other hand, Kitoh and Endo (2016) showed that the annual maximum daily precipitation (Rx1d) associated with TCs will decrease in the future owing to a reduction in TC number. Using largeensemble simulation, Kitoh and Endo (2019) showed that the median of Rx1d associated with TCs around Japan will decrease in the future whereas 90-and 99percentile values of Rx1d will increase. These results indicate that the frequency of extreme precipitation will be affected not only by the change in precipita-tion rate, but also by changes in the number of TCs and their movement speed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Projection of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over Japan with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

Watanabe

Murata²,

Sasaki³

et al. 2019

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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This study evaluates possible changes in tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation over Japan under a future warmer climate using an ensemble projection generated by a non-hydrostatic regional climate model with a resolution of 5 km (NHRCM05) under the RCP8.5 scenario. NHRCM05 reproduces TC precipitation and TC intensity more accurately than does a general circulation model with a resolution of 20 km. The number of TCs approaching Japan is projected to decrease under the future climate, while the TC precipitation rate increases. As these two effects cancel each other out, total TC precipitation, and the frequency of the moderate TC precipitation that is usual under the present climate, shows no significant change. On the other hand, the frequency of extreme TC precipitation increases significantly because the intensification of the TC precipitation rate outweighs the reduction in TC frequency. The increase in the TC precipitation rate is caused primarily by the increase in water vapor around the TCs, which in turn results from the increase in environmental water vapor. The intensification and structural changes to TCs also contribute to the enhanced TC precipitation.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Projection of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over Japan with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

Watanabe

Murata²,

Sasaki³

et al. 2019

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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“…This approach is similar to those in pseudo-global warming experiments (e.g., Sato et al 2007) that explored how the observed phenomena (in this case, under the influence of the same interannual variation of SST) would change under global warming scenarios. The approach has provided valuable information pertaining to potential changes in the future (Kitoh and Endo 2016;Kusunoki 2018). Because the HiRAM can simulate the major characteristics of the observed weather and climate phenomena in the SST-driven simulations (as shown later in this paper), it is reasonable to explore how the observed phenomena will be modified under the influence of future SST changes.…”

Section: Data Ar Detection and Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation and Projection of Circulations Associated with Atmospheric Rivers along the North American Northeast Coast

Hsu

Chen

2020

Journal of Climate

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Torrential rainfall occurring along the North American northeast coast (NANC) in summer and autumn is accompanied by strong atmospheric rivers (ARs), which efficiently transport abundant moisture along a narrow-stretched path associated with a low pressure system. In this study, an autodetection method was used to identify ARs that reached the NANC, based on the 6-hourly data of the ERA-Interim reanalysis conducted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, in summer and autumn from 1979 to 2016. Stronger ARs tended to occur in the eastern flank of a cyclonic anomaly that covered the entire North American east coast from Florida to Newfoundland, with a positive precipitation anomaly over the NANC. The cyclonic anomalies and precipitation in autumn were stronger but less frequent than those in summer. Cyclonic anomalies were parts of westward-tilting wavelike circulation perturbations moving into North America from the extratropical North Pacific and moving continuously eastward, reaching the east coast in approximately five days. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), which realistically simulates the occurrence frequency and key characteristics of ARs in current climatic conditions, was used to project the AR activity and corresponding circulations in the future warmer climate under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario. The HiRAM that was driven by sea surface temperature changes projected an overall increase in the occurrence of stronger ARs in both summer and autumn and the precipitation strength in autumn along the NANC by the end of the twenty-first century. This projected enhancement was contributed to by two processes—a smaller contribution was from the weakened basin-scale North Atlantic anticyclone but with higher moisture content, and a larger contribution was from the enhancement in anomalous circulation during AR events with integrated vapor transport exceeding the 75th percentile. These results suggest that the influence of strong ARs on the NANC may increase in the warmer future due to the combination of increased water vapor in the large-scale environment (thermodynamic effect) and enhanced anomalous circulations (dynamic effect). The AR-associated circulations in autumn were also projected to have a stronger tropical connection in the warmer future.

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“…One scientific finding is that very intense tropical cyclones (categories 4 and 5) will occur more frequently in elongated areas from the south of Japan to Mexico via Hawaii compared to those under the past climate conditions (Yoshida et al 2017). As a result, heavy precipitation, 90-and 99-percentile values of daily precipitation, will possibly increase in these regions as discussed by Kitoh and Endo (2019) who examined precipitation extremes in the tails of PDF separately for tropical cyclones and synoptic events.…”

Section: Global Future Climate Changes • • • (4)mentioning

confidence: 99%

d4PDF: large-ensemble and high-resolution climate simulations for global warming risk assessment

Ishii

Mori

2020

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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A large-ensemble climate simulation database, which is known as the database for policy decision-making for future climate changes (d4PDF), was designed for climate change risk assessments. Since the completion of the first set of climate simulations in 2015, the database has been growing continuously. It contains the results of ensemble simulations conducted over a total of thousands years respectively for past and future climates using high-resolution global (60 km horizontal mesh) and regional (20 km mesh) atmospheric models. Several sets of future climate simulations are available, in which global mean surface air temperatures are forced to be higher by 4 K, 2 K, and 1.5 K relative to preindustrial levels. Nonwarming past climate simulations are incorporated in d4PDF along with the past climate simulations. The total data volume is approximately 2 petabytes. The atmospheric models satisfactorily simulate the past climate in terms of climatology, natural variations, and extreme events such as heavy precipitation and tropical cyclones. In addition, data users can obtain statistically significant changes in mean states or weather and climate extremes of interest between the past and future climates via a simple arithmetic computation without any statistical assumptions. The database is helpful in understanding future changes in climate states and in attributing past climate events to global warming. Impact assessment studies for climate changes have concurrently been performed in various research areas such as natural hazard, hydrology, civil engineering, agriculture, health, and insurance. The database has now become essential for promoting climate and risk assessment studies and for devising climate adaptation policies. Moreover, it has helped in establishing an interdisciplinary research community on global warming across Japan.

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Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Associated with Tropical Cyclones Projected by Large-Ensemble Simulations

Cited by 26 publications

References 38 publications

Future Projection of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over Japan with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

Future Projection of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over Japan with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

Simulation and Projection of Circulations Associated with Atmospheric Rivers along the North American Northeast Coast

d4PDF: large-ensemble and high-resolution climate simulations for global warming risk assessment

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