Future changes in precipitation over the upper Yangtze River basin based on bias correction spatial downscaling of models from CMIP6

Wu, Heng; Lei, Huimin; Lü, Weiwei; Liu, Zhiwu

doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ac620e

Cited by 17 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…And the multimodel mean streamflow is expected to increase by 3 (6.8), 12 (25.3), 19.6 (34.2), 24 (36), 41 (53), 45 (55) m 3 ·s −1 ·year −1 from watershed 1 to watershed 6 under SSP245 (SSP585) scenario, respectively. This indicates that the YZB is expected to become wetter, and the wetting tendency is more prominent under SSP585 scenario, which agree with previous studies (Sun et al, 2019; Wu et al, 2022b). The results could be further confirmed by the linear trend of individual CMIP6 models.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

Intensification of drought propagation over the Yangtze River basin under climate warming

Feng

Yuan

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought is critical for better understanding hydrological drought. However, how climate change would affect the drought propagation has not been well studied, especially over regions mixed with massive human interventions. The study attempts to explore changes in the characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts, and the corresponding drought propagation under different climate change scenarios across six watersheds over the Yangtze River basin (YZB). Seasonal meteorological and hydrological droughts were characterized by using standardized precipitation and streamflow index at 3‐month scales (SPI‐3 and SSI‐3), which were calculated using precipitation simulations from 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models and streamflow simulations from PCR‐GLOBWB 2.0 hydrological model driven by CMIP6 outputs. Drought propagation characteristics, including propagation ratio, lag and lengthening, were then determined. Both meteorological and hydrological drought durations would shorten, while their drought severity would increase excluding a downstream watershed. About 40%–50% of meteorological droughts could develop into hydrological droughts, with lag time less than 1.4 months and lengthening time less than 1.8 months, respectively. Under climate warming, the drought propagation ratio would increase over two watersheds, while decrease and then increase over three watersheds. The drought propagation lag time is expected to prolong over the regions above Cuntan under moderate emission scenario, while prolong first and then shorten over most watersheds under high‐emission scenario. The drought propagation lengthening time would shorten over most watersheds excluding a downstream watershed, where drought conditions would further worsen during drought propagation. This study calls for climate mitigation efforts to suppress drought aggravation in the propagation particularly for the downstream YZB.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

Intensification of drought propagation over the Yangtze River basin under climate warming

Feng

Yuan

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The extreme and mean precipitation in June were strongly correlated with the discharge of the river (r = 0.55 * * and r = 0.48 * * , respectively; * * means statistically significant at a 99% confidence level). According to their correlations, the river discharge relies more on its short-term extremes [37,38]. This implies that severe floods near the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers resulting from the extreme EASM rainfall could be a factor contributing to increases in river discharge during summer [39].…”

Section: (Figure 1(b))mentioning

confidence: 99%

The record-breaking 2022 long-lasting marine heatwaves in the East China Sea

Kim

Chu

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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In 2022, record-breaking long-lasting marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the East China Sea (ECS), which persisted for 62 days during boreal summer. This exceeded the average MHWs duration of 10 days by a factor of 6. In addition, 2022 was also recorded as a year of many extreme events throughout Asia, such as summer floods in China and Pakistan, droughts and extreme heat in Europe, raising the question of whether they were caused by a “triple-dip” La Niña, which has persisted since September 2020. Here we examine the key local and remote processes that led to the 2022 MHWs in the ECS using mixed-layer heat budget analysis. During the onset of the MHWs, a salinity-stratified shallow mixed-layer due to the large river discharge from the Yangtze-Huaihe River floods in June enhanced warm ocean temperature in the ECS. Simultaneously, an anomalous anticyclone maintained by the stationary Rossby wave, which is generated by vorticity forcings in mid-latitudes and thermal forcing in Pakistan, settled in the corresponding region and led to the long-lasting MHWs until Typhoon Hinnamnor began to dissipate the wave in early September. This study improves our understanding of the physical mechanism of flood-related MHWs that have increased with recent climate change.

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“…Previous researchers used the Global circulation models (GCMs) data sets to analyze the future changes in hydroclimate extremes like flood and drought (Gusain et al., 2020; Krishnan et al., 2020). The new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios are related to the development factors such as socio‐economic, sustainability, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil‐fueled, and middle‐of‐the‐road due to climate change, which help a combined analysis of vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation (Riahi et al., 2017; Wu et al., 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The frequency of extreme precipitation events will also increase in the late 21st century due to anthropogenic warming (Mukherjee et al., 2018). End of the 21st century, the world's temperature is projected to rise by 5.7°C, making the atmosphere more volatile and hotter (Wu et al., 2022). Many research studies showed that an increasing global mean temperature reveals an increasing trend in seasonal monsoonal rainfall over South Asia (Loo et al., 2015; Mall et al., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensification of Extreme Rainfall in Indian River Basin: Using Bias Corrected CMIP6 Climate Data

Chaubey,

Mall

2023

Earth's Future

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The changing frequency of extreme rain events in the past few decades over the Indian river basins (IRBs) contributed to floods and drought and resulted in economic losses and gross domestic product. In this study, we evaluated the performance of 12 Global Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6‐ experiment with India Meteorological Department observed data sets to reproduce the extreme rainfall events as well as project the changes in frequency and intensity of the hydroclimate extremes in future. We found that under low emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6), the frequency of extreme rainfall is going to increase over the western ghat and northeast IRBs, while an increase in heavy rainfall intensity (14.3%) noticed under SSP2‐4.5 in the upper Ganga and Indus basin. Also, approximately 4%–10% of the heavy rainfall is projected to increase over the western part of IRBs during the Near (2021–2040) and Mid (2041–2060) future. The study explored the new hotspot regions for future urban flooding due to increasing pattern of heavy rainfall in future. Moreover, the lower Ganga basin will experience agricultural drought in near future due to decreasing areal mean rainfall, which needs to be seen by policymakers for managing the excess (less) water. Also, India's northern, central, and western river basins may experience more extremes under high‐emission (SSP5‐8.5) scenarios that indicate challenges to mitigation. The findings of this study highlight the importance of developing long‐term adaptation and mitigation strategies aimed at reducing hydroclimate vulnerability. It emphasizes the need to implement measures that enhance resilience and minimize risks associated with hydroclimate extremes at the basin level.

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Future changes in precipitation over the upper Yangtze River basin based on bias correction spatial downscaling of models from CMIP6

Cited by 17 publications

References 76 publications

Intensification of drought propagation over the Yangtze River basin under climate warming

Intensification of drought propagation over the Yangtze River basin under climate warming

The record-breaking 2022 long-lasting marine heatwaves in the East China Sea

Intensification of Extreme Rainfall in Indian River Basin: Using Bias Corrected CMIP6 Climate Data

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