Future changes in summer precipitation in regional climate simulations over the Korean Peninsula forced by multi-RCP scenarios of HadGEM2-AO

Cha, Dong‐Hyun; Lee, Dong‐Kyou; Jin, Chun‐Sil; Kim, Gayoung; Choi, Yonghan; Suh, Myoung‐Seok; Ahn, Joong‐Bae; Hong, Song‐You; Min, Seung‐Ki; Park, Seong-Chan; Kang, Hyun‐Suk

doi:10.1007/s13143-016-0015-y

Cited by 40 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 33 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The boxplot from the BMA on historical data after the BC was similar to that from observations, whereas the boxplot from the BMA on historical data before the BC was much smaller in both median and scale than that from the observations. This may be because the occurrence of extreme rainfall in the southern part was related to more sources or variables than in the northern part Cha et al, 2016;Kim et al, 2019). Relative increase in the observations for spatially averaged 20-year (50-year) return level was about 23% (16%) in the RCP4.5 experiment and about 45% (36%) in the RCP8.5 experiment by the end of the 21st century.…”

Section: Projected Future Changes In Precipitation Extremesmentioning

confidence: 96%

Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP5 ensemble

Lee

Shin

Boo

et al. 2020

Atmospheric Science Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Projections of changes in extreme climate are sometimes predicted by multimodel ensemble methods that combine forecasts from individual simulation models using weighted averaging. One method to assign weight to each model is the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in which posterior probability is used. For the cases of extreme climate, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is typically used. We applied the approach of GEV-embedded BMA to a series of 35 years of the annual maximum daily precipitation data (both historical data and data gathered from simulation experiments for future periods) over the Korean peninsula as simulated by the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulation data under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used. Observed data and 17 CMIP5 models for 12 gird cells in Korea have been examined to predict future changes in precipitation extremes. A simple regional frequency analysis of pooling observations from three stations in each cell was employed to reduce the estimation variance and local fluctuations. A bias correction technique using the regression-type transfer function was applied to these simulation data. Return levels spanning over 20 and 50 years, as well as the return periods relative to the reference years , were estimated for two future periods, namely Period 1 (2021-2050) and Period 2 (2066-2095). From these analyses, relative increase observed in the spatially averaged 20-year (50-year) return level was approximately 23% (16%) and 45% (36%) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. We concluded that extreme rainfalls will likely occur two times and four times more frequently in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, as compared to in the reference years by the end of the 21st century. K E Y W O R D Sclimatic change, global climate model, heavy rainfall, multimodel simulation, Taylor diagram, weighted averaging

show abstract

Section: Projected Future Changes In Precipitation Extremesmentioning

confidence: 96%

Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP5 ensemble

Lee

Shin

Boo

et al. 2020

Atmospheric Science Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…e863 These models, which have been studied since the late 1980s, can resolve small-scale waves embedded within large-scale waves simulated by GCMs (Giorgi and Mearns, 1999;Wang et al, 2004). Therefore, RCMs are necessary for the future projection of precipitation over the KP Cha et al, 2016;Oh et al, 2016). During the summer on the KP, most precipitation is related to Changma, one component of the East Asian summer monsoon (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in extreme precipitation indices over Korea

Kim

Cha

Park

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this study, the regional climate of the Korean Peninsula is dynamically downscaled using a high‐resolution regional climate model forced by two representative concentration pathway scenarios of Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2‐Atmosphere and Ocean (HadGEM2‐AO) using multiple regional climate models. Changes in extreme precipitation indices are investigated. Through the evaluation of the present climate, a multi‐model ensemble reasonably reproduces the long‐term climatology of extreme precipitation indices over South Korea despite some systematic errors. Both mean and extreme precipitation intensities for 80 years in the future (2021–2100) increase compared to those of the present. However, the increasing rates of indices related to precipitation intensities are different according to sub‐period, season, and emission scenarios. Mean and extreme precipitation intensities of the future climate increase during the summer when most extreme precipitation events occur over the Korean Peninsula. Also, abnormal extreme precipitation can increase during future summers due to increasing variances of indices related to extreme precipitation intensity. Increasing extreme summer precipitation over South Korea is proportional to the increases in convective precipitation compared to non‐convective precipitation. This indicates that future changes in summer precipitation, with regard to intensity and frequency, over South Korea, among representative concentration pathway scenarios, are more related to a change in convective instability rather than synoptic condition.

show abstract

“…Ding et al (2018) suggested that the summer monsoon rain belt will continue to advance northward. It is found that the meridional location of the rain belt in East Asia is related to the subtropical jet (Horinouchi et al, 2009), and the changes of distribution of water vapor transport play an important role in the non‐uniform spatial distribution of precipitation (Sun & Ding, 2010; Cha et al, 2016). Other methods also simulate similar results to CMIP5.…”

Section: Meiyu Modelling and Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By using the self-organizing map method, Masamichi and Soichiro (2018) suggested that extreme rainfall events display a nonuniform distribution due to the nonuniform spatial changes in the large-scale climatological background state in East Asia. Cha (2016) indicated that Baiu rainband will enhance during late June to early July, but it will weaken after mid-July due to the expansion of the western North Pacific subtropical high. Kusunoki and Mizuta (2008) suggested that the termination of the Baiu tends to be delayed until August.…”

Section: 1029/2019jd031496mentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiscale Variability of Meiyu and Its Prediction: A New Review

Ping²,

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Following the description of the basic climatic characteristics of Meiyu in East Asia, we present a comprehensive review of multi–time scale variabilities of the Meiyu together with the long‐term change of extreme precipitation during the Meiyu in this paper. The dynamic prediction skills of the Meiyu on subseasonal to seasonal time scales are further described and illustrated by using present numerical prediction models. For the multi–time scale variabilities of the East Asian Meiyu, they are closely related with the impacts of both quasi‐biweekly and 30–60 day oscillation from both the tropics and the middle and high latitudes on intraseasonal time scale, the influences of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation on interannual time scale, the variations of East Asian summer monsoon on decadal time scale, and the continued impacts of global warming, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on interdecadal scale and long‐term trend. Under the background of the global warming and the influences of urbanization and aerosol effects, the Meiyu shows some specific characteristics including significantly weakened continuous rain, uneven spatial distribution of precipitation, and increased (decreased) number of strong (weak) precipitation days. Improvements of prediction on rain belt location, total precipitation amount, persistent heavy precipitation events, and low‐frequency variability oscillation during Meiyu season have been achieved with the improved dynamic models of the Beijing Climate Center since 2010.

show abstract

Future changes in summer precipitation in regional climate simulations over the Korean Peninsula forced by multi-RCP scenarios of HadGEM2-AO

Cited by 40 publications

References 33 publications

Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP5 ensemble

Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP5 ensemble

Future changes in extreme precipitation indices over Korea

Multiscale Variability of Meiyu and Its Prediction: A New Review

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About