Future changes in winter explosive cyclones over the Southern Hemisphere domains from the CORDEX-CORE ensemble

Reboita, Michelle Simões; Crespo, Natália Machado; Torres, José Abraham; Reale, Marco; Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio da; Coppola, Erika

doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05867-w

Cited by 16 publications

(15 citation statements)

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“…The cyclogenetic region more to the northeast of R4 [142] registers an annual average of 26 cyclogeneses [146], a seasonal average of 7 cases in the summer [145], and a higher frequency in December [142]. Reboita et al [171] verified a positive trend of cyclone occurrence in R4 (on the coast of Uruguay) for the period 1980-2012, as well as a projection of increased cyclogenetic activity in the near (2020-2050) and far (2070-2099) futures [172,173], besides a positive trend of explosive extratropical cyclones, which form mainly on the coast of Uruguay and are associated with extreme winds and severe precipitation [174]. According to the authors, the increase in cyclogenetic activity near Uruguay may be a consequence of the intensification of the subtropical jet at upper levels and the moisture input at lower levels promoted by anomalous northeast-easterly winds from the South Atlantic Ocean [173].…”

Section: Cluster 4-region 4 (R4)mentioning

confidence: 94%

A New Look into the South America Precipitation Regimes: Observation and Forecast

Ferreira

Reboita

2022

Atmosphere

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South America is a vast continent characterized by diverse atmospheric phenomena and climate regimes. In this context, seasonal climate predictions are helpful for decision-making in several relevant socioeconomic segments in this territory, such as agriculture and energy generation. Thus, the present work evaluates the performance of ECMWF-SEAS5 in simulating the South American precipitation regimes by applying a non-hierarchical clustering technique. In addition, the study describes the main atmospheric systems that cause precipitation in each cluster and updates a previous work performed in South America in 2010. As a result, ECMWF-SEAS5 simulates (with good correspondence) the eight climate regimes identified in the analysis of precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Moreover, ECMWF-SEAS5 has a satisfactory ability in representing the rainfall regime in low and medium climate predictability regions, such as central and southern South America. ECMWF-SEAS5 has good performance in the climate characterization of South America and it gives us confidence in using its seasonal climate predictions throughout the continent.

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Section: Cluster 4-region 4 (R4)mentioning

confidence: 94%

A New Look into the South America Precipitation Regimes: Observation and Forecast

Ferreira

Reboita

2022

Atmosphere

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“…In this work, we identify cyclones using an automatic scheme specifically developed for the Mediterranean region (Lionello et al 2002), and later adapted to hemispheric scales (Reale and Lionello 2013;Neu et al 2013). This algorithm has been extensively applied in previous studies (Lionello et al 2002;Lionello and Giorgi 2007;Reale and Lionello 2013;Neu et al 2013;Ulbrich et al 2013;Lionello et al 2016;Pinto et al 2016;Flaounas et al 2018;Lionello et al 2019;Reale et al 2019;Reboita et al 2020;Lionello et al 2020;Reboita et al 2021) and it is based on the search of pressure minima in a sequence of MSLP gridded fields. The procedure involves the partition of the MSLP field at time t 0 in a certain number of systems by identifying sets of steepest paths leading to the same MSLP minimum.…”

Section: Cyclone Detection and Tracking Algorithmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future projections of Mediterranean cyclone characteristics using the Med-CORDEX ensemble of coupled regional climate system models

et al. 2021

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Here, we analyze future projections of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean region at the end of the twenty-first century based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs) from the Med-CORDEX initiative under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Despite some noticeable biases, all the RCSMs capture spatial patterns and cyclone activity key characteristics in the region and thus all of them can be considered as plausible representations of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones. In general, the RCSMs show at the end of the twenty-first century a decrease in the number and an overall weakening of cyclones moving across the Mediterranean. Five out of seven RCSMs simulate also a decrease of the mean size of the systems. Moreover, in agreement with what already observed in CMIP5 projections for the area, the models suggest an increase in the Central part of the Mediterranean region and a decrease in the South-eastern part of the region in the cyclone-related wind speed and precipitation rate. These rather two opposite tendencies observed in the precipitation should compensate and amplify, respectively, the effect of the overall reduction of the frequency of cyclones on the water budget over the Central and South-eastern part of the region. A pronounced inter-model spread among the RCSMs emerges for the projected changes in the cyclone adjusted deepening rate, seasonal cycle occurrence and associated precipitation and wind patterns over some areas of the basin such as Ionian Sea and Iberian Peninsula. The differences observed appear to be determined by the driving Global Circulation Model (GCM) and influenced by the RCSM physics and internal variability. These results point to the importance of (1) better characterizing the range of plausible futures by relying on ensembles of models that explore well the existing diversity of GCMs and RCSMs as well as the climate natural variability and (2) better understanding the driving mechanisms of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones properties.

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“…Regarding cyclone intensity, some studies showed the increase in the occurrence of strong cyclones, considering different intensity measurements for both the current climate (Pezza and Ambrizzi, 2003;Reboita et al, 2015) and future scenarios (Geng and Sugi, 2003;Lambert and Fyfe, 2006;Bengtsson et al, 2009). Moreover, Reboita et al (2021) found an increase of 13% in the occurrence of bomb cyclones in the South Atlantic Ocean, with the worst projected scenario (RCP8.5) presenting deeper, faster and shorter systems. An extratropical cyclone is called an explosive or bomb when it experiences fast deepening over a relatively short time, usually greater than 24 hPa in 24 hours (normalized at 60 • N, Sanders and Gyakum, 1980).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of extratropical cyclone intensity and speed on the extreme wave trends in the Atlantic Ocean

et al. 2022

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Future changes in winter explosive cyclones over the Southern Hemisphere domains from the CORDEX-CORE ensemble

Cited by 16 publications

References 100 publications

A New Look into the South America Precipitation Regimes: Observation and Forecast

A New Look into the South America Precipitation Regimes: Observation and Forecast

Future projections of Mediterranean cyclone characteristics using the Med-CORDEX ensemble of coupled regional climate system models

Impact of extratropical cyclone intensity and speed on the extreme wave trends in the Atlantic Ocean

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