Future Climate Projection in Northwest China With RegCM4.6

Pan, Xiaoduo; Zhang, L.; Huang, Chunlin

doi:10.1029/2019ea000819

Cited by 38 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…More details about validation information of CN05.1 are given in Wu and Gao (2013). It has been used by a lot of previous studies (e.g., Chen et al, 2014; Li et al, 2020; Pan et al, 2020; Sui et al, 2015). In view of the possible mismatch in horizontal resolutions, both the simulated precipitation and CN05.1 are regridded to a 1.0° × 1.0° grid by using a bilinear interpolation algorithm.…”

Section: Data Sets and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased Occurrence and Intensity of Consecutive Rainfall Events in the China's Three Gorges Reservoir Area Under Global Warming

Yanxin

Ullah

2020

Earth and Space Science

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Consecutive rainfall events (CREs) are important triggers of geological hazards like landslide downhill and mudslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGR), China. These hazards are not only potential risks for the effective storage capacity of the reservoir but also threats of the safety of the reservoir's Great Dam. The future changes of CREs' occurrence and intensity are analyzed by using the projection experiments from 20 models attending the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under three different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Spring and fall are focused on, during which CREs are most frequent. Considering a common overestimate of rainy days number in the state‐of‐the‐art models, a new approach is developed to define CREs based on the percentile of rainfall distribution in observations. The approach yields a similar CREs climatology in models to that in observations and thus is used to identify CREs in models. The results based on multiple model ensemble (MME) and model spread comparison suggest a significant increase in spring and an overall decrease in fall in CREs' occurrence under all three scenarios. As for the intensity, it is projected to intensify in both spring and fall. Particularly, the higher the emission scenario, the greater the spring accumulated rainfall amount during a single CRE. These results imply an increasing risk of geological hazards in the TGR in the future.

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Section: Data Sets and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased Occurrence and Intensity of Consecutive Rainfall Events in the China's Three Gorges Reservoir Area Under Global Warming

Yanxin

Ullah

2020

Earth and Space Science

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“…For the prediction of future climate impact on REC in the two cities, we used future climate projection of China based on the regcm4.6 model under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios (Lei & Xiaoduo, 2020). This regional climate model has yielded more accurate simulation results of present-day mean climatology over Northwest China than the Met O ce Hadley Centre Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) global climate model (Pan, Zhang, & Huang, 2020). We extract climate projections for the two cities from the nearest available points in the data; i.e., at the coordinates of 36°N,103.5° E for Lanzhou and 29.5°N,91° E for Lhasa.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Residential Electricity in Western Cities in China

Xia

Hou

Wang

2021

Preprint

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Extreme weather induced by climate change has triggered large-scale power outages worldwide. More insight into the climate impact (especially precipitation) on residential electricity consumption (REC) is needed. With a particular focus on precipitation, our study aimed to quantify the climate impact on REC and project associated changes under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 climate change scenarios in Lanzhou and Lhasa, two western cities in China. The climate impact on REC in both cities is driven by heating-related demand, with Lanzhou being more sensitive to climate than Lhasa during the warm season. There is a stronger precipitation impact during the cold season in both cities, since precipitation (especially snowfall) boosts electricity consumption during the cold season. As the two cities become warmer and wetter, precipitation will offset the impact of warming on REC, with Lanzhou being more affected. Based on Lanzhou projections, the offsetting effect will be more pronounced in the cold season across all scenarios, and will be particularly strong under RCP 2.6. For the remainder of the year, the effects of increased precipitation and warming will have competing importance under the RCP 4.5 scenario, whereas temperature effects will generally dominate the climate impact under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Our results provide new references for future climate–energy studies in western China and can help inform policy-making on regional climate adaptation. We also propose an algorithm model that is readily compatible with potential early-warning projects to protect against extreme weather-induced power outages.

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“…The inland river basin of Northwest China (IRB‐NWC) is located in the mid‐latitudes of Eurasia and the whole region has an area of 2.2 million km 2 , accounting for nearly quarter of the total. This region has a complex terrain that undergoes rapid changes (Pan et al, 2020). High mountains, such as the Tianshan Mountains and the Qilian Mountains, obstruct water vapour transport and thus form several dry inland river basins in the rain shadow, such as the Junggar Basin, Tarim Basin, Qaidam Basin and Hexi Corridor Basin (Shi et al, 2007) (Figure 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The inland river basin of Northwest China (IRB-NWC) is located in the mid-latitudes of Eurasia and the whole region has an area of 2.2 million km 2 , accounting for nearly quarter of the total. This region has a complex terrain that undergoes rapid changes (Pan et al, 2020).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Interaction between wind speed and net radiation controls reference evapotranspiration variance in the inland river basin of Northwest China

Ning

Feng

et al. 2022

Hydrological Processes

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Exploring the variance in reference evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) and its dominant influencing factors is important for climate change, hydrological cycles and water management. Temperature (T), wind speed (U 2 ), net radiation (R n ) and actual vapour pressure (e a ) are the major climatic input variables in Penman-Monteith equation. Previous studies have successfully applied the total differential method to determine the relative contributions of changes in these variables to variation in ET 0 on different timescales. However, the interaction of climatic variables has not been incorporated into this method. Taking the inland river basin of Northwest China as the study area, we extended the total differential method to decompose the ET 0 variance into temporal variance and covariance of T, U 2 , R n and e a on intra-annual and annual scales during 1960-2017. The results indicated that the variance in ET 0 on the intra-annual scale was larger than that on the annual scale. Among the four single climatic variables, U 2 variance made larger contributions to intra-annual and annual ET 0 variance with relative contributions of 6.8% and 1.1%, respectively. However, the interaction of climatic variables played a dominant role in the variation in ET 0 . Specifically, on intra-annual scale, coupled U 2 and R n primarily controlled the ET 0 variance (76.1%), followed by coupled R n and e a (9.6%); but their positive effects were weakened by the negative effects of coupled T and e a (À2.3%). On annual scale, coupled U 2 and R n still governed the variance in ET 0 (97.3%), but the effects were also weakened by other groups of interaction effects. Furthermore, ET 0 was highly related to NDVI on an intra-annual scale (R 2 = 0.68, p = 0.00), indicating the strong effect of seasonal vegetation dynamics on ET 0 variance. This study provides new insights to quantitatively assess the interaction effects of environmental factors on key hydrometeorological variables.

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Future Climate Projection in Northwest China With RegCM4.6

Cited by 38 publications

References 44 publications

Increased Occurrence and Intensity of Consecutive Rainfall Events in the China's Three Gorges Reservoir Area Under Global Warming

Increased Occurrence and Intensity of Consecutive Rainfall Events in the China's Three Gorges Reservoir Area Under Global Warming

Impact of Climate Change on Residential Electricity in Western Cities in China

Interaction between wind speed and net radiation controls reference evapotranspiration variance in the inland river basin of Northwest China

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