Future climate projections for Vietnam: temperature and precipitation changes under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios

Abstract

The IPCC's 6th Assessment Report in 2023 highlights Vietnam's undeniable vulnerability to climate change, ranking it among the most severely impacted countries. In response, experts developed the CMIP6-VN dataset, offering high-resolution downscaled temperature and precipitation data tailored for Vietnam using the CMIP6 GCMs model. This study aims to analyze climate projections for Vietnam throughout the 21st century, incorporating data from 25 models to provide valuable insights into potential future climate scenarios. The investigation compares projected temperature and precipitation changes for the mid-term (2040÷2059) and long-term (2080÷2099) periods relative to the historical period (1980÷2014) in the six sub-climatic regions of the country. The results show a consistent upward trend in average temperature, projecting an average of 2.30C (SSP2-4.5) and 4.30C (SSP5-8.5) increases by the end of the century. The Northern regions, especially the Northwest, are experiencing the most significant temperature rise, while moving towards lower latitudes, the temperature increase becomes less severe. The Southern regions, on the other hand, are experiencing a relatively lowest temperature increase. Rainfall variability indicates a slight increase across Vietnam by the century’s end, aligned with rising temperatures, though not as pronounced as the temperature changes. This study emphasizes temperature disparities between the Northern and Southern regions, with the Northwest showing the highest increase and the Southern region displaying the least prominent rise. Policymakers and stakeholders can use these research insights to devise effective adaptation and mitigation strategies in addressing climate change challenges in Vietnam. Continued monitoring and further research are essential to enhance the accuracy and reliability of climate projections in the region, enabling Vietnam to better prepare and respond to the inevitable impacts of climate change.