Future Climate Under CMIP6 Solar Activity Scenarios

Abstract

Predictions of solar activity in the future are difficult to make due to the chaotic state of solar dynamo and the high nonlinearity of physical processes on the Sun. Therefore, the Climate Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) used a statistical approach and recommended two different solar forcing scenarios for the simulations. The reference scenario was developed as the standard forcing, whereas the alternative forcing has lower solar activity (EXT CMIP6). In this study, we use both forcings in a set of experiments to explore the importance of the alternative CMIP6 solar forcing for future climate and ozone layer variability. In general, the difference in solar forcing scenarios is small, and thus most changes at the surface and at high altitudes are not significant. In addition, only the active phases of the Sun, which have the largest difference in amplitude of the forcing, are investigated. In this case, some statistically significant patterns emerge, mostly in the stratosphere, but still, the magnitude of the changes is not very large and a noticeable surface climate response to these changes is not expected and also not found. Our results indicate that low amplitude solar forcings such as the EXT CMIP6 or similar are not worthwhile considering during the next CMIP type of activities. The proposed solar irradiance decline does not represent any danger to the ozone layer.

Preface to Monitoring the Earth Radiation Budget and Its Implication to Climate Simulations: Recent Advances and Discussions

“…The influence of this scenario on the Earth climate and ozone layer has been evaluated by Sedlacek et al. (2023). They concluded that most changes at the surface and at higher altitudes are not significant at the end of the century (2080–2100) compared to todays climate.…”

Discriminant Analysis of the Solar Input on the Danube’s Discharge in the Lower Basin

“…Deterministic models, however, are still limited. As stated in [2,3], the direction of causality of climate change is not clear.…”

“…Of course, hydrological prediction depends to a large extent on weather phenomena and their evolution. The climate system under the impact of solar activity has an evolution that is very difficult to predict using deterministic models due to the chaotic state of the solar dynamo and the high nonlinearity of physical processes on the Sun [3]. Therefore, statistical methods are mainly used to investigate the solar impact on geophysical processes.…”