Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes

Rangecroft, Sally; Suggitt, Andrew J.; Anderson, Karen; Harrison, Stephan

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1655-8

Cited by 43 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…For instance, paraglacial processes during deglaciation lead to enhanced rock falls and debris flows from deglaciating mountain slopes and these deliver rock debris to glacier surfaces.This produces debris-covered glaciers 30 and these are common in many mountain regions, including in Alaska, arid Andes, central Asia and in the Hindu KushHimalaya. Thick debris cover (decimetres to metres) limits ice ablation, (e.g., (Lambrecht et al 2011, Pellicciotti et al 2014, Lardeux et al 2016, Rangecroft et al 2016) and reverses the mass balance gradient, with comparatively higher ablation rates up glacier than at the debris-covered terminus. This significantly influences glacier dynamics (Benn et al 2005), and with The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org /10.5194/tc-2018-35 Manuscript under review for journal The Cryosphere Discussion started: 6 March 2018 c Author(s) 2018.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios

Shannon¹,

Smith²,

Wiltshire³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract.The Paris agreement aims to hold global warming to well below 2 o C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 o C relative to the 15 pre-industrial period. Recent estimates based on population growth and intended carbon emissions from participant countries, suggest global warming may exceed this ambitious target. Here we present glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding +2 o C global average warming relative to the preindustrial period. Glacier volume is modelled by developing an elevation-dependent mass balance model for the Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator (JULES). To do this, we modify JULES to include glaciated and un-glaciated surfaces that 20 can exist at multiple heights within a single grid-box. Present day mass balance is calibrated by tuning albedo, wind speed, precipitation and temperature lapse rates to obtain the best agreement with observed mass balance profiles. JULES is forced with an ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models which were downscaled using the high resolution HadGEM3-A atmosphere only global climate model. The ensemble mean volume loss at the end of the century plus/minus one standard deviation is, -64±5% for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet. The 25 uncertainty in the multi-model mean is rather small and caused by the sensitivity of HadGEM3-A to the boundary conditions supplied by the CMIP5 models. The regions which lose more than 75% of their initial volume by the end of the century are; Alaska, Western Canada and US, Iceland, Scandinavia, Russian Arctic, Central Europe, Caucasus, High Mountain Asia, Low Latitudes, Southern Andes and New Zealand. The ensemble mean ice loss expressed in sea-level equivalent contribution is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. The largest contributors to sea level rise are Alaska (44

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios

Shannon¹,

Smith²,

Wiltshire³

et al. 2018

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…A bias correction is often recommended because precipitation is underestimated in coarse-resolution datasets. Gauging observations are sparse in high-mountain regions and snowfall observations can be susceptible to undercatch by 20 %-50 % (Rasmussen et al, 2012). Our precipitation rates are generally too low because we do not bias-correct the precipitation.…”

Section: Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 94%

Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios

et al. 2019

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Abstract. The Paris agreement aims to hold global warming to well below 2 ∘C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial period. Recent estimates based on population growth and intended carbon emissions from participant countries suggest global warming may exceed this ambitious target. Here we present glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding +2 ∘C global average warming relative to the pre-industrial period. Glacier volume is modelled by developing an elevation-dependent mass balance model for the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). To do this, we modify JULES to include glaciated and unglaciated surfaces that can exist at multiple heights within a single grid box. Present-day mass balance is calibrated by tuning albedo, wind speed, precipitation, and temperature lapse rates to obtain the best agreement with observed mass balance profiles. JULES is forced with an ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, which were downscaled using the high-resolution HadGEM3-A atmosphere-only global climate model. The CMIP5 models use the RCP8.5 climate change scenario and were selected on the criteria of passing 2 ∘C global average warming during this century. The ensemble mean volume loss at the end of the century plus or minus 1 standard deviation is -64±5 % for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet. The uncertainty in the multi-model mean is rather small and caused by the sensitivity of HadGEM3-A to the boundary conditions supplied by the CMIP5 models. The regions which lose more than 75 % of their initial volume by the end of the century are Alaska, western Canada and the US, Iceland, Scandinavia, the Russian Arctic, central Europe, Caucasus, high-mountain Asia, low latitudes, southern Andes, and New Zealand. The ensemble mean ice loss expressed in sea level equivalent contribution is 215.2±21.3 mm. The largest contributors to sea level rise are Alaska (44.6±1.1 mm), Arctic Canada north and south (34.9±3.0 mm), the Russian Arctic (33.3±4.8 mm), Greenland (20.1±4.4), high-mountain Asia (combined central Asia, South Asia east and west), (18.0±0.8 mm), southern Andes (14.4±0.1 mm), and Svalbard (17.0±4.6 mm). Including parametric uncertainty in the calibrated mass balance parameters gives an upper bound global volume loss of 281.1 mm of sea level equivalent by the end of the century. Such large ice losses will have inevitable consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.

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“…May to September are the coldest and driest months with zero rainy days on average, an average RH of 34%, and an average minimum temperature of −7.5 °C (Lamparelli et al, ), thus making Salar de Uyuni an ideal place to study its famous brines (Rettig et al, ; Risacher & Fritz, ) in analogy with the Martian brines. With a confirmed location outside the permafrost zone (Rangecroft et al, ), no precipitation and minimal climatic dynamics during the winter months (Lamparelli et al, ), and no possibility of either permafrost or seasonal snowpack melt contributions to the formation of streaks unlike in Antarctica, the brines in Salar are solely a result of salt deliquescence and can give us important clues about the formation and flow of the proposed Martian brines. This deliquescence or sapping can be facilitated by either atmospheric water or shallow subsurface water, respectively, and we cannot comment on the fractional characterization of the sources yet; however, this question can be a future topic of research.…”

Section: Terrestrial Analogies For Martian Brinesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are Slope Streaks Indicative of Global‐Scale Aqueous Processes on Contemporary Mars?

Bhardwaj

Sam

Martín-Torres

et al. 2019

Reviews of Geophysics

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Slope streaks are prevalent and intriguing dark albedo surface features on contemporary Mars.Slope streaks are readily observed in the equatorial and subequatorial dusty regolith regions with low thermal inertia. They gradually fade over decadal timescales. The proposed mechanisms for their formation vary widely based on several physicochemical and geomorphological explanations. The scientific community is divided in proposing both dry and wet mechanisms for the formation of slope streaks. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of the literature for these wet and dry mechanisms. We discuss the probable constraints on the various proposed mechanisms and provide perspectives on the plausible process driving global-scale slope streak formation on contemporary Mars. Although per our understanding, a thorough consideration of the global distribution of slope streaks, their morphology and topography, flow characteristics, physicochemical and atmospheric coincidences, and terrestrial analogies weighs more in favor of several wet mechanisms, we acknowledge that such wet mechanisms cannot explain all the reported morphological and terrain variations of slope streaks. Thus, we suggest that explanations considering both dry and wet processes can more holistically describe all the observed morphological variations among slope streaks. We further acknowledge the constraints on the resolutions of remote sensing data and on our understanding of the Martian mineralogy, climate, and atmosphere and recommend continuous investigations in this direction using future remote sensing acquisitions and simulations. In this regard, finding more wet and dry terrestrial analogs for Martian slope streaks and studying them at high spatiotemporal resolutions can greatly improve our understanding.Plain Language Summary Slope streaks are prevalent surface features on contemporary Mars.They have dark albedo and are abundant in the equatorial and subequatorial latitudes. The exact mechanisms behind their formation and development are still unknown, and several hypotheses have been proposed based on the physicochemical and geomorphological properties of slope streaks. These features generate a common interest because several hypotheses have linked them with transiently flowing liquid water on the Martian surface. Such probable linkages with Martian liquid water can have wide implications for understanding habitability conditions and ongoing water cycles on Mars and for evolving planetary protection policies to prevent possible contamination of Martian surface during future missions. Therefore, here we perform a systematic evaluation of the literature covering morphological and flow characteristics of slope streaks for water-driven or dry dust avalanche mechanisms. We discuss the probable limitations of the various proposed models for slope streak development and provide perspectives on the plausible processes driving global-scale slope streak formations on Mars. Continuously improving satellite and rover observations of Martian surface, topography...

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Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes

Cited by 43 publications

References 34 publications

Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios

Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios

Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios

Are Slope Streaks Indicative of Global‐Scale Aqueous Processes on Contemporary Mars?

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