Future climatic drivers and their effect on PM&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;10&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; components in Europe and the Mediterranean Sea

Cholakian, Arineh; Colette, Augustin; Coll, Isabelle; Ciarelli, Giancarlo; Beekmann, Matthias

doi:10.5194/acp-19-4459-2019

Cited by 25 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 89 publications

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“…Except for these few variations, all results showed a total AOD decrease over Europe for the three scenarios (SSP 1-1.9, SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5). These results are therefore in agreement with the first studies that addressed the fine particles evolution, and in particular PM 10 and PM 2.5 , which forecast a fine particles decrease over Europe by the end of the century (Markakis et al, 2014;Lacressonnière et al, 2017;Cholakian et al, 2019). These results are also consistent with Boé et al (2020) and Gutiérrez et al (2020) studies that predict a decline in total aerosol AOD by the middle of the century.…”

Section: Surface Mass Concentration and Aod Evolutionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…For the time being, a few studies have only addressed the variability of the surface fine particles mass concentration, in particular the PM 10 and PM 2.5 using air quality prediction models. These studies have shown a decline in PM 10 over Europe in future (Lacressonnière et al, 2014;Markakis et al, 2014;Lacressonnière et al, 2017;Cholakian et al, 2019). The intensity of this decrease depends on the period that is taken into account and on the inputs used.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future evolution of aerosols and implications for climate change in the Euro-Mediterranean region

Drugé¹,

Nabat²,

Mallet³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. This study investigates, through regional climate modelling, the surface mass concentration and AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) evolution of the various (anthropogenic and natural) aerosols over the Euro-Mediterranean region between the end of the 20th century and the mid-21st century. The direct aerosol radiative forcing (DRF) as well as the future Euro-Mediterranean climate sensitivity to aerosols have been also analysed. Different regional climate simulations were carried out with the CNRM-ALADIN63 regional climate model, driven by the global CNRM-ESM2-1 Earth System Model (used in CMIP6) and coupled to the TACTIC (Tropospheric Aerosols for ClimaTe In CNRM) interactive aerosol scheme. These simulations follow several future scenarios called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1-1.9, SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5), which have been chosen to analyse a wide range of possible future scenarios in terms of aerosol or particles precursors emissions. Between the historical and the future period, results show a total AOD decrease between 30 and 40 % over Europe for the three scenarios mainly due to the sulfate AOD decrease (between −85 and −93 %), that is partly offset by the nitrate and ammonium particles AOD increase (between +90 and +120 %). According to these three scenarios, nitrate aerosols become the largest contributor to the total AOD during the future period over Europe, with a contribution between 43.5 and 47.5 %. Concerning natural aerosols, their contribution to the total AOD increases slightly between the two periods. The different evolution of aerosols therefore impacts their DRF, with a significant sulfate DRF decrease by 2.6 W m−2 and a moderate nitrate and ammonium DRF increase by 1.4 W m−2, on average according to the three scenarios over Europe. These changes, which are similar under the different scenarios, explain about 65 % of the annual shortwave radiation change but also about 6 % (in annual average) of the warming expected over Europe by the middle of the century. This study shows, with the SSP 5-8.5, that the extra-warming attributable to the anthropogenic aerosols evolution over Central Europe and the Iberian Peninsula during the summer period is due to aerosol-radiation as well as aerosol-cloud interactions processes. The extra-warming of about 0.2 °C over Central Europe is explained by a surface radiation increase of 5.8 W m−2 over this region, due to both a surface aerosol DRF decrease of 4.4 W m−2 and cloud optical depth (COD) decrease of 1.3. In parallel, the simulated extra-warming of 0.2 °C observed over the Iberian Peninsula is due, as for it, to a COD decrease of 1.3 but also to an atmospheric dynamics change leading to a cloud cover decrease of about 2 % and a drier air in the lower layers, signature of the semi-direct forcing. This study thus highlights the necessity of taking into account the evolution of aerosols in future regional climate simulations.

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Section: Surface Mass Concentration and Aod Evolutionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future evolution of aerosols and implications for climate change in the Euro-Mediterranean region

Drugé¹,

Nabat²,

Mallet³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Therefore, to understand even at a regional level the air pollutants origin, seasonal variation, and characteristics is an important issue (Park et al 2015). Previous studies have revealed that air pollution not only affects climate (Jeong et al 2011;Cholakian et al 2019) but subsequently many health problems are linked to high PM concentrations due to short-and long-term exposure (Brunekreef and Holgate 2002;Makra et al 2011;Yang et al 2015;Cha et al 2017;Faridi et al 2018;Bennett et al 2019;Zhong et al 2019). Regarding the origin of pollutants, they can be of either anthropogenic or natural, for example, desert dust has a major contribution to PM concentration increase all over in Europe (Ryall et al 2002;Valenzuela et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Major air pollutants seasonal variation analysis and long-range transport of PM10 in an urban environment with specific climate condition in Transylvania (Romania)

Bodor

Keresztesi

et al. 2020

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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The air quality decrease, especially in urban areas, is related to local-scale conditions and to dispersion of air pollutants (regional and long-range) as well. The main objective of this study was to decipher the seasonal variation of PM10, NO, NO2, NOx, SO2, O3, and CO over a 1-year period (2017) and the possible relationships between air pollution and meteorological variables. Furthermore, trajectory cluster analysis and concentration-weighted trajectory (CWT) methods were used to assess the trajectories and the source-receptor relationship of PM10 in the Ciuc basin Transylvania, known as the “Cold Pole” of Romania. The pollutants show lower concentrations during warmer periods, especially during summer, and significantly higher concentrations were observed on heating season in winter due to seasonal variations in energy use (biomass burning) and atmospheric stability. Subsequently, in February, the highest concentration of PM10 was 132 μg/m3, which is 4 times higher than the highest recorded monthly mean. Our results indicate a negative correlation between CO/temperature (− 0.89), NOx/temperature (− 0.84) and positive between NOx/PM10 (0.95), CO/PM10 (0.9), and NOx/CO (0.98), respectively. Dominant transport pathways were identified and the results revealed that slow-moving southerly (~ 45%) and northwesterly (~ 32%) air masses represent almost 80% and mainly regional flows were discerned. During 2017, increased PM10 levels were measured at the study site when air masses arrived mostly from northwest and southeast. The CWT and polarplot models show a strong seasonal variation and significant differences were observed between weekdays and weekends, namely highest PM10 concentrations during weekends at low wind speed (2–4 m/s).

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“…A large database of historic and future simulations exists for this scheme, for three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), each containing 70 years of simulation (2031-2100) and 30 years of historic simulations. These scenarios are discussed and compared in Colette et al (2013), Lemaire et al (2016) and Cholakian et al (2019) in more detail.…”

Section: Oa Schemes Used For the Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biogenic secondary organic aerosol sensitivity to organic aerosol simulation schemes in climate projections

Cholakian¹,

Beekmann²,

Coll³

et al. 2019

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Organic aerosol (OA) can have important impacts on air quality and human health because of its large contribution to atmospheric fine aerosol and its chemical composition, including many toxic compounds. Simulation of this type of aerosol is difficult, since there are many unknowns in its nature and mechanism and processes involved in its formation. These uncertainties become even more important in the context of a changing climate because different mechanisms, and their representation in atmospheric models, imply different sensitivities to changes in climate variables. In this work, the effects caused by using different schemes to simulate OA are explored. Three schemes are used in this work: (1) a molecular scheme; (2) a standard volatility basis set (VBS) scheme with anthropogenic aging; and (3) a modified VBS scheme containing functionalization, fragmentation and formation of nonvolatile secondary organic aerosol (SOA) for all semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs). Five years of historic and five years of future simulations were performed using the RCP8.5 climatic scenario. The years were chosen in a way to maximize the differences between future and historic simulations. The study focuses on biogenic SOA (BSOA), since the contribution of this fraction of BSOA among OA is major in both historic and future scenarios (40 % to 78 % for different schemes in historic simulations). Simulated OA and BSOA concentrations with different schemes are different, with the molecular scheme showing the highest concentrations among the three schemes. The comparisons show that for the European area, the modified VBS scheme shows the highest relative change between fu-ture and historic simulations, while the molecular scheme shows the lowest (a factor of 2 lower). These changes are largest over the summer period for BSOA because the higher temperatures increase terpene and isoprene emissions, the major precursors of BSOA. This increase is partially offset by a temperature-induced shift of SVOCs to the gas phase. This shift is indeed scheme dependent, and it is shown that it is the least pronounced for the modified VBS scheme including a full suite of aerosol aging processes, comprising also formation of nonvolatile aerosol. For the Mediterranean Sea, without BVOC emissions, the OA changes are less pronounced and, at least on an annual average, more similar between different schemes. Our results warrant further developments in organic aerosol schemes used for air quality modeling to reduce their uncertainty, including sensitivity to climate variables (temperature).

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Future climatic drivers and their effect on PM<sub>10</sub> components in Europe and the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract: Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 4460A. Cholakian et al.: Future climatic driver effects on PM 10 components extent) reduced by the boundary conditions and regional climate changes.

Cited by 25 publications

References 89 publications

Future evolution of aerosols and implications for climate change in the Euro-Mediterranean region

Future evolution of aerosols and implications for climate change in the Euro-Mediterranean region

Major air pollutants seasonal variation analysis and long-range transport of PM10 in an urban environment with specific climate condition in Transylvania (Romania)

Biogenic secondary organic aerosol sensitivity to organic aerosol simulation schemes in climate projections

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