Future Costs of Key Emerging Offshore Renewable Energy Technologies

Santhakumar, Srinivasan; Meerman, Hans; Faaij, André

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4312841

Cited by 3 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 59 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Tidal stream and wave technology are also considered complex energy technologies due to the similarities in operating environments and characteristics. However, wave energy technology designs show modular characteristics [346,389] like solar PV and battery, than offshore wind and tidal stream technologies. As explained above, these inherent characteristics play a critical role in determining the pace and extent of cost reduction.…”

Section: Technological Learningmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The said framework leverages prevalently used methods including experience curve (multi-factor and component-based), bottom-up cost modeling, and technology diffusion curves to overcome the limitations posed by individual approaches. By applying this framework, long-term cost assessments were derived for offshore renewable energy technologies, i.e., offshore wind [277,349], wave, tidal stream, and bioethanol from seaweed [389]. These projections are available based on the cumulative output of the technology (GWs installed or GWh energy generated) and not time.…”

Section: Technological Learningmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, assessing the future role of floating wind and other key emerging ocean energy technologies, including tidal stream technology, wave technology, and biofuels from seaweed [318,389], is of great significance for these regions [17,266]. Some notable benefits these key emerging technologies can bring to the decarbonization pathways are, 1) tidal stream is predictable and is said to contribute to system balancing and reducing reserve capacity costs in the energy system [340], 2) wave energy generation complements the wind generation profile, thereby can help to diversify the production risks in the energy system [344], 3) bioethanol from seaweeds can serve as an alternative energy source for harder-to-abate sectors, including transportation and industries [389,390]. A more detailed review of these technologies and their cost-reduction potential is available in the literature [194,389,391].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some notable benefits these key emerging technologies can bring to the decarbonization pathways are, 1) tidal stream is predictable and is said to contribute to system balancing and reducing reserve capacity costs in the energy system [340], 2) wave energy generation complements the wind generation profile, thereby can help to diversify the production risks in the energy system [344], 3) bioethanol from seaweeds can serve as an alternative energy source for harder-to-abate sectors, including transportation and industries [389,390]. A more detailed review of these technologies and their cost-reduction potential is available in the literature [194,389,391]. However, a system-level understanding of their future roles in the North Sea energy system and the impact of technological learning is lacking.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both inputs for offshore renewable energy technologies were referred from literature, which used a coherent approach that enables quantifying long-term cost developments and contributing factors. The said approach leverages the merits of prevalent methods like technology diffusion curves, experience curves (multi-factor and component-based), and bottom-up cost modeling [183,277,349,389]. To understand the potential impact of technological learning on offshore renewable deployments, the cost and performance inputs of these technologies were also defined under 3 scenarios, high-, base-, and low-learning cases.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Learning, future cost and role of offshore renewable energy technologies in the North Sea energy system

Santhakumar

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This article reviews experience curve applications in energy technology studies to illustrate best practices in analyzing technological learning. Findings are then applied to evaluate future performance projections of three emerging offshore energy technologies, namely, offshore wind, wave and tidal stream, and biofuel production from seaweed. Key insights from the review are: First, the experience curve approach provides a strong analytical construct to describe and project technology cost developments. However, disaggregating the influences of individual learning mechanisms on observed cost developments demands extensive data requirements, e.g., R&D expenditures, and component-level cost information, which are often not publicly available/readily accessible. Second, in an experience curve analysis, the LR estimate of the technology is highly sensitive to the changes in model specifications and data assumptions. Future studies should evaluate the impact of these variations and inform the uncertainties associated with using the observed learning rates. Third, the review of the literature relevant to offshore energy technology developments revealed that experience curve studies have commonly applied the single-factor experience curve model to derive technology cost projections. This has led to an overview of the role of distinct learning mechanisms (e.g., learning-by-doing, scale effects), and factors (site-specific parameters) influencing their development. To overcome these limitations, we propose a coherent framework based on the findings of this review. The framework disaggregates the technological development process into multiple stages and maps the expected data availability, characteristics, and methodological options to quantify the learning effects. The evaluation of the framework using three offshore energy technologies signals that the data limitations that restrict the process of disaggregating the learning process and identifying cost drivers can be overcome by utilizing detailed bottom-up engineering cost modeling and technology diffusion curves; with experience curve models.

show abstract

Section: Technological Learningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Technological Learningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Learning, future cost and role of offshore renewable energy technologies in the North Sea energy system

Santhakumar

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

The future role of offshore renewable energy technologies in the North Sea energy system

Santhakumar,

Meerman,

Faaij

et al. 2024

Energy Conversion and Management

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Repairing What Policy Is Missing Out on: A Constructive View on Prospects and Preconditions for Sustainable Biobased Economy Options to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change

Faaij

2022

Energies

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Biomass use for energy and materials is, on the one hand, one of the key mitigation options to reach the 1.5 °C GMT target set in the Paris Agreement, as highlighted by the IPCC and many other key analyses. On the other hand, particularly in parts of the EU, a strong negative connotation has emerged in public debate and EC policy, with a particular emphasis on the (presumed) displacement effect in markets and land use. This is a remarkable contrast because the reasons to use sustainable biomass, on the one hand, and the possibilities and synergies for supplying sustainable biomass, on the other, are underpinned with strong evidence, also providing insights on how displacement issues can be avoided. Sustainable biomass supplies can contribute 20–30% of the future global and European energy supply, leading to reduced overall mitigation costs, including realizing the net CO2 removal from the atmosphere using BECCS concepts. This paper highlights which options, pathways and preconditions are key to achieving such a substantial contribution of sustainable biomass in future (2050) energy and material supply (with a focus on the European setting). By pinpointing how “biomass can be done right” and how important synergies can be achieved via better agricultural methods, the restoration of marginal and degraded lands and the adaptation of climate change, a different policy agenda emerges in sharp contrast to how a biobased economy has been framed in recent years. It is recommended that future policy priorities, particularly at the EU level, take a more integral view on the synergy between the role of biomass in the energy transition, climate adaptation and mitigation, better agriculture and the better use of land in general. Strategies to achieve such positive results typically require an alignment between renewable energy, and agricultural, environmental, mitigation and adaptation policies, which is a largely missing nexus in different policy arenas. Resolving this lack of alignment offers a major opportunity, globally, to contribute to the European Green deal and improve energy security.

show abstract

Future Costs of Key Emerging Offshore Renewable Energy Technologies

Cited by 3 publications

References 59 publications

Learning, future cost and role of offshore renewable energy technologies in the North Sea energy system

Learning, future cost and role of offshore renewable energy technologies in the North Sea energy system

The future role of offshore renewable energy technologies in the North Sea energy system

Repairing What Policy Is Missing Out on: A Constructive View on Prospects and Preconditions for Sustainable Biobased Economy Options to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About