Future Directions for the World Climate Research Programme

Abstract

The worldwide climate research community has talent, dedication, and a clear sense of knowledge gaps. It needs to close those gaps and convey its messages effectively to user communities.

Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization

“…To maximize the relevance and impact of CMIP6, it was decided to use the WCRP Grand Science Challenges (GCs) as the scientific backdrop of the CMIP6 experimental design. By promoting research on critical science questions for which specific gaps in knowledge have hindered progress so far, but for which new opportunities and more focused efforts raise the possibility of significant progress on the timescale of 5-10 years, these GCs constitute a main component of the WCRP strategy to accelerate progress in climate science (Brasseur and Carlson, 2015). They relate to (1) advancing understanding of the role of clouds in the general atmospheric circulation and climate sensitivity , (2) assessing the response of the cryosphere to a warming climate and its global consequences, (3) understanding the factors that control water availability over land (Trenberth and Asrar, 2014), (4) assessing climate extremes, what controls them, how they have changed in the past and how they might change in the future, (5) understanding and predicting regional sea level change and its coastal impacts, (6) improving near-term climate predictions, and (7) determining how biogeochemical cycles and feedback control greenhouse gas concentrations and climate change.…”

The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6

“…CMIP5 models tend to overestimate the observed posteruption global surface cooling and subsequent warming (Marotzke and Forster, 2015), although the discrepancy decreases when accounting for the post-eruption phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Lehner et al, 2016). Driscoll et al (2012) and Charlton-Perez et al (2013) found large uncertainty across CMIP5 models concerning the average dynamical atmospheric response during the first two post-eruption winters, especially the post-eruption strengthening of the northern hemispheric (NH) winter polar vortex and its tropospheric signature. Climate models reproduce the main features of observed precipitation response to volcanic forcing but significantly underestimate the magnitude of the regional responses in particular seasons (Iles and Hegerl, 2014).…”

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 <i>past1000</i> simulations

“…The past1000 simulations focus on the assessment of forced vs. internal variability and provide context for present and future changes. Research stimulated by PMIP will therefore link to the "Grand Challenges" of the WCRP (Brasseur and Carlson, 2015). In particular, the past1000 simulation will contribute to the science challenges "Clouds, Circulation, and Climate Sensitivity", "Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes", and "Carbon feedbacks in the climate system".…”