Future drought risk in Africa: Integrating vulnerability, climate change, and population growth

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Castelletti, Andrea; Magliocca, Nicholas R.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.278

Cited by 242 publications

(141 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…To assess multi hazard vulnerability in this study, flood vulnerability indicators adopted from the CBDRI were coupled with drought indicators drawn from various literature in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) (Ahmadalipour & Moradkhani, 2018;Ahmadalipour et al, 2019;Hahn et al, 2009;Hannaford, 2018;Malcomb et al, 2014;Muyambo et al, 2017;Naumann et al, 2014). Table 1 presents the indicators used.…”

Section: Indicators For Vulnerability Quantificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multi Hazard Perspective in Flood and Drought Vulnerability: Case Study of Malawi

Kamanga¹,

Tantanee²,

Mwale³

et al. 2020

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The prominence of vulnerability assessments cannot be over emphasized. They are key in informing policy by supporting holistic, multi-disciplinary and evidence based policy implementation. They foster delineation of locales and sectors requiring resources and interventions. About 90% of the population in Malawi and most of sub-Saharan Africa rely on rain fed agriculture. Due to this overreliance, people's livelihoods and economy are vulnerable to hydrological hazards such as flood and droughts, which account for 70% of all the hazards in the region. This paper employs indicators to couple exposure, susceptibility, capacity measures and economic, social, physical and environmental components to measure multiple hazard vulnerability. It then utilizes the Community Based Disaster Risk Index in the analysis. Results show that Karonga is an area of medium and high multi hazard vulnerability. The lead contributor to this vulnerability is susceptibility, which manifests itself as high and very high, with predominance in the high levels. Exposure manifests on the lower end of vulnerability spectrum. Lack of capacity is predominantly medium. Socio economic and environmental aspects underlie this susceptibility. Reducing vulnerability in these economies will demand radical programs that target infrastructural investment, socioeconomic empowerment, environmental management and strengthening of institutional capacity.

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Section: Indicators For Vulnerability Quantificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multi Hazard Perspective in Flood and Drought Vulnerability: Case Study of Malawi

Kamanga¹,

Tantanee²,

Mwale³

et al. 2020

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“…Drought is recognized as a natural hazard and environmental disaster and it has caused extensive impact during recent decades over the worldwide [1,2], such as the North America [3,4], Europe [5,6], Australia [7], Africa [8,9], and the Asia [10][11][12]. Drought is usually caused by the scarcity of precipitation, such drought indicators.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Drought can also affect ecosystems stability [15] and even kill animals due to a lack of adequate drinking water during severe drought seasons. In recent years, especially in the face of increasing population, agricultural expansion, and industrial and economic development, other aspects of water demand continue to increase, drought will have an important impact on all these aspects [9]. Therefore, drought needs to arouse extensive attention by the human society.Climate change is a universal consensus of the global scientific community and the public.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Liu et al [18] revealed that there would be an increasing drought risk if the global warming continues to rise at a high level. Ahmadalipour et al [9] took an ensemble of 10 regional climate models and a multi-scalar drought index to quantify drought hazard and found that drought risk in Africa is expected to increase in future with varied rates for different models and scenarios. Meanwhile, different regions and basins will inevitably show different characteristics of drought under the influence of climate change because of the differences in geographical location and economic development scale.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Variations of Drought Tendency, Frequency, and Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate Change under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios in Huai River Basin, China

Wang

Hou

Huang

et al. 2019

Water

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Huai River Basin (HRB) is an important food and industrial production area and a frequently drought-affected basin in eastern China. It is necessary to consider the future drought development for reducing the impact of drought disasters. Three global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), such as CNRM-CM5 (CNR), HadGEM2-ES (Had) and MIROC5 (MIR), were used to assessment the future drought conditions under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, namely, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), statistical method, Mann-Kendall test, and run theory were carried out to study the variations of drought tendency, frequency, and characteristics and their responses to climate change. The research showed that the three CMIP5 models differ in describing the future seasonal and annual variations of precipitation and temperature in the basin and thus lead to the differences in describing drought trends, frequency, and drought characteristics, such as drought severity, drought duration, and drought intensity. However, the drought trend, frequency, and characteristics in the future are more serious than the history. The drought frequency and characteristics tend to be strengthened under the scenario of high concentration of RCP8.5, and the drought trend is larger than that of low concentration of RCP4.5. The lower precipitation and the higher temperature are the main factors affecting the occurrence of drought. All three CMIP5 models show that precipitation would increase in the future, but it could not offset the evapotranspiration loss caused by significant temperature rise. The serious risk of drought in the future is still higher. Considering the uncertainty of climate models for simulation and prediction, attention should be paid to distinguish the effects of different models in the future drought assessment.

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“…Linlin Fan et al used Copulas to quantify the curve between drought and water scarcity in the Metropolitan Areas [30]. Wang et al established an integrated drought risk model based on the relation curve of drought joint probabilities and drought losses of multi-hazard-affected bodies [31].In summary, most of the previous studies have considered the hazard factor and socio-economic factors when assessing drought vulnerability [23][24][25][26][27][28][29]. Some studies performed on the vulnerability curve, which is more accurate due to qualifying of the relationship between crop yield and drought [30,31].…”

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confidence: 99%

Analysis of Agricultural Drought Risk Based on Information Distribution and Diffusion Methods in the Main Grain Production Areas of China

Niu

Zhao

et al. 2019

Atmosphere

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Accurate assessment of agricultural drought risk is of strategic significance to ensure future grain production security in the main grain production areas of China. Agricultural drought risk assessment is based on drought vulnerability characteristics. In this study, firstly the drought thresholds were redefined by correlation analysis of drought strength based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and drought damage rates, then the information distribution and the two-dimensional normal information diffusion method were employed to establish the vulnerability curve between drought strength and drought damage rates. Finally, provincial drought risks and the conditional probabilities at different drought damage stages were obtained. The results show that the drought vulnerability curve was nonlinear. With the increase of drought strength, drought damage rates increased rapidly at the beginning, and after a small fluctuation locally, they no longer increased significantly and tended to be relative stable. The occurrence probabilities of agricultural drought risk presented great spatial differences, with the characteristics of high in the northern, moderate in the central and southwestern part, and lower in the southeastern provinces in the main grain production areas of China. The analysis of conditional probability showed that Hubei, Henan, and Jiangxi were the provinces most prone to drought-affected risk under the drought-induced condition; while Liaoning, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia were the ones most prone to lost harvest risk under the drought-induced or the drought-affected condition. The results could be used to provide guidance for drought risk management and to formulate appropriate plans by the relevant departments.Atmosphere 2019, 10, 764 2 of 24 security in the main grain production areas could have a profound impact on the security of the whole country. Therefore, it is very important to have accurate evaluation of the agricultural drought risk to ensure future grain production security.Generally, drought can be classified into four types: Meteorological drought, agricultural drought, hydrological drought, and social-economic drought [8]. Meteorological drought is a prerequisite for the other three droughts. In order to effectively prevent and mitigate the drought disasters, drought research has attracted the attention of the government and scholars. The research about the definition of drought index [9,10], the causes of drought [11][12][13], the evolution of drought characteristics [14,15], and the impacts of drought [16,17] has received great attention. In terms of drought indexes, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) have been utilized widely. PDSI takes the changes in surface water balance into account, while the acquisition is difficult because of the complex calculation process and the limited time scale [18]. SPI is a representative index for drought an...

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Future drought risk in Africa: Integrating vulnerability, climate change, and population growth

Cited by 242 publications

References 78 publications

A Multi Hazard Perspective in Flood and Drought Vulnerability: Case Study of Malawi

A Multi Hazard Perspective in Flood and Drought Vulnerability: Case Study of Malawi

Variations of Drought Tendency, Frequency, and Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate Change under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios in Huai River Basin, China

Analysis of Agricultural Drought Risk Based on Information Distribution and Diffusion Methods in the Main Grain Production Areas of China

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