Future evolution of the hydroclimatic conditions favouring floods in the south‐east of Belgium by 2100 using a regional climate model

Abstract

In Belgium, most flood events occur in winter as a result of intense precipitation events but also through the abrupt melting of the snowpack that covers the Ardennes summits. These conditions favourable to floods exhibit a decreasing trend over 1959-2010 resulting from the reduction in snow accumulation, although extreme precipitation events show a positive, albeit nonsignificant signal. In this study, the evolution of these trends in warmer climates is investigated by using future projections performed with the regional climate model MAR ('Modèle Atmosphérique Régional') forced by two global models NorESM1-M and MIROC5 under the RCP8.5 scenario. These models were selected from the CMIP5 archive after evaluation of their ability to represent the current (1976-2005) mean climate over Europe. By the end of the century, the results show an acceleration of the snow depletion resulting in fewer snowmelt-associated flood risk days depending on the warming rate from the global models forcing MAR. Regarding the impact of the evolution of extreme precipitation events on hydroclimatic conditions favouring floods, no significant change was found although these trends are subject to uncertainties due to model physics and natural variability.

Impact of climate change on nearly zero-energy dwelling in temperate climate: Time-integrated discomfort, HVAC energy performance, and GHG emissions

“…For this aim, the regional climate model (MAR) "Modèle Atmosphérique Régional" was used in its version 3.11.14 [56], which is a dynamical method resulting in physically consistent climate parameters and extreme weather events. MAR is adapted and widely validated for Belgium region [57][58][59].…”

Historical and future weather data for dynamic building simulations in Belgium using the regional climate model MAR: typical and extreme meteorological year and heatwaves

“…Initially, the MAR model was developed for both Greenland (Fettweis et al, 2013) and Antarctica ice sheets (Agosta et al, 2019;Kittel et al, 2021). However, it has recently been successfully adapted to temperate regions such as Belgium (Fettweis et al, 2017;Doutreloup et al, 2019;Wyard et al, 2021). In the framework of this study, MAR is initially forced every 6 h at its lateral boundaries (temperature, wind, and specific humidity) by the reanalysis ERA5 (hereafter called MAR-ERA5), which is available at a horizontal resolution of ∼ 31 km (Hersbach et al, 2020).…”

Historical and Future Weather Data for Dynamic Building Simulations in Belgium using the MAR model: Typical & Extreme Meteorological Year and Heatwaves

“…Initially, the MAR model was developed for both Greenland (Fettweis et al, 2013) and Antarctica ice sheets (Agosta et al, 2019;Kittel et al, 2021). However, it has recently successfully adapted to temperate regions such as Belgium (Doutreloup et al, 2019;Wyard et al, 2021;Fettweis X. et al, 2017). In the framework of this study, MAR is initially forced every 6 hours at its lateral boundaries (temperature, wind, and specific humidity) by the reanalysis ERA5 (called hereafter MAR-ERA5) which is available at a horizontal resolution of ~31 km (Hersbach et al, 2020).…”