Future Extreme Waves at the German Baltic Sea Coast Derived From Regional Climate Model Runs

Schlamkow, Christian; Dreier, Norman; Fröhle, Peter; Salecker, Dörte

doi:10.9753/icce.v33.management.5

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…the longshore sediment transport at sandy coasts (see e.g. Dreier et al, 2012). The results are not discussed in detail here, but a general trend of the changes of the 30 years annual averages of mean wave direction towards more westerly directions with maximum changes up to 7° at locations which are exposed to westerly winds are found (see Figure 9).…”

Section: Changes Of the Average Wave Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 90%

The Use of a Regional Climate- And Wave Model for the Assessment of Changes of the Future Wave Climate in the Western Baltic Sea

Dreier

Fröhle

Salecker

et al. 2014

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

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On the basis of hourly simulated wind data from a regional circulation model (Cosmo-CLM) wave conditions from 1960 to 2100 are calculated for two realisations each of the global emission scenarios A1B and B1 using a numerical wave model for the area of the Western Baltic Sea. Comparisons of the 30 years averages of the wave conditions between the future and the past show that the changes of the average wave conditions can be directly linked to the changes of the average wind conditions. The changes of the average wave conditions and extreme wave events are characterised by high spatial and annual variability. In addition the changes depend on the time period of the comparison, the global emission scenario and the realisation of the climate model run. The bandwidth of the changes is moreover affected by the approach for the calculation of the wave conditions. A significant climate change signal of the average wave conditions is found at westerly wind exposed locations with predominant higher values of the average significant wave heights up to +10%. At easterly wind exposed locations the climate change signal is more weak and higher and lower values are possible (-5% to +5%). Regarding the future changes of the wave directions, in general more wave events from W-NW and fewer events from N-NE can be expected. Analyses of extreme wave heights with a return period of 200 years show both increasing and decreasing values (-0.5m to +0.5m). The climate change signal of the extreme wave events is, as the same for the changes of the average wave conditions, more robust at locations which are exposed to westerly winds.

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Section: Changes Of the Average Wave Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 90%

The Use of a Regional Climate- And Wave Model for the Assessment of Changes of the Future Wave Climate in the Western Baltic Sea

Dreier

Fröhle

Salecker

et al. 2014

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

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“…These methods must take into account the specific characteristics of the data and the questions to be answered, namely amount and quality of the data, complexity of analysis, and demand on reliability of the result. Several publications show the variety of different methods which were used or specifically developed for the analysis [10] [11].…”

Section: Statistical Methods In Climate Change Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The wave dataset that has been analyzed was calculated by using a newly developed hybrid approach that consists of both empirical and numerical methods for the calculation of the wave conditions based on future projections of wind conditions from a regional climate model (COSMO-CLM [21] [22]) considering different future IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SRES [23]). The associated methods and results have been published in [10] [24].…”

Section: Example "Extreme Value Analysis"mentioning

confidence: 99%

Collecting Statistical Methods for the Analysis of Climate Data as Service for Adaptation Projects

Hennemuth¹,

Bender²,

Bülow³

et al. 2015

AJCC

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The development of adaptation measures to climate change relies on data from climate models or impact models. In order to analyze these large data sets or an ensemble of these data sets, the use of statistical methods is required. In this paper, the methodological approach to collecting, structuring and publishing the methods, which have been used or developed by former or present adaptation initiatives, is described. The intention is to communicate achieved knowledge and thus support future users. A key component is the participation of users in the development process. Main elements of the approach are standardized, template-based descriptions of the methods including the specific applications, references, and method assessment. All contributions have been quality checked, sorted, and placed in a larger context. The result is a report on statistical methods which is freely available as printed or online version. Examples of how to use the methods are presented in this paper and are also included in the brochure.

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“…The BACC group states an increase of the 90% percentile of the wave height of up to 0.5m for the Baltic Sea. Schlamkow et al (2012) showed (Fig.. 9)) that no clear tendency towards a general increase or decrease of extreme wave heights can be concluded from their analyses and that the results are spreading widely depending on different scenario runs and the projection periods. The results for increase / decrease of extreme wave heights spread between ± 15% for different scenario runs, which means that an increase of extreme wave conditions can not be excluded for the future.…”

Section: Extreme Eventsmentioning

confidence: 98%

To the Effectiveness of Coastal and Flood Protection Structures Under Terms of Changing Climate Conditions

Froehle

2012

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

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Consequences resulting from future Climate Change may be one of the most severe threats for people and economies in many countries of the world. Besides the problem of sea level rise, also possible general changes in the frequency and intensity of storms as well as general changes in the average wind field are expected for the future. With respect to the coastal protection possible future strategies and also possible future measure are analyzed and assessed with the result that technical, morphological, socio-economic and aesthetical aspects play a role.

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Future Extreme Waves at the German Baltic Sea Coast Derived From Regional Climate Model Runs

Cited by 4 publications

References 2 publications

The Use of a Regional Climate- And Wave Model for the Assessment of Changes of the Future Wave Climate in the Western Baltic Sea

The Use of a Regional Climate- And Wave Model for the Assessment of Changes of the Future Wave Climate in the Western Baltic Sea

Collecting Statistical Methods for the Analysis of Climate Data as Service for Adaptation Projects

To the Effectiveness of Coastal and Flood Protection Structures Under Terms of Changing Climate Conditions

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