Future Geomorphologic Changes under the Changing Climate

Rajasree, Bharathan Radhamma; Deo, M. C.

doi:10.2112/si89-002.1

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…Various studies have been performed so far with the motivation of better comprehending future wave climate changes in LST and shoreline evolution. While some of these were LST studies [1][2][3][4][5][6][7], some of them were carried out to predict shoreline changes [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18] is order to address the fact that long-term wave climate variations, influenced by regional climate change, present a complex issue affecting LST and coastline change. These studies suggest that climate change affects the LST mechanism through variations in wave characteristics and climate variability, with potential impacts on shoreline position and orientation, and can aggravate coastal erosion in some regions while having a broadly neutral effect in others.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Wave Climate-Driven Longshore Sediment Transport and Shoreline Evolution along the Southwestern Black Sea

Başaran,

Arı Güner

2024

Water

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This study investigates the future wave climate-driven longshore sediment transport (LST) and shoreline change on the Karasu Coast, situated on the southwestern coast of the Black Sea, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 wave climate scenarios. Within the scope of this study, hourly deep sea wave data between 2021 and 2100, according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used in order to predict future LST processes. Net and gross LST rates were computed using various empirical and numerical methods based on hourly wave parameters. By the conclusion of the study period after 80 years, the average net LST rates were obtained as 48,000 and 51,500 m3/year in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while the gross LST rates were 250,000 and 255,000 m3/year. Due to the increase in wave height and period in both climate scenarios compared to the historical data, the average gross LST rates are projected to rise in the future. The reduction in swell wave heights, coupled with an increase in wind wave heights, compared to the past has led to a reduction in net LST. The results show that, after 80 years, LST will have increased 2.5 times more in the near future in comparison with the middle future for both scenarios.

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