Future greening of the Earth may not be as large as previously predicted

Global long-term mapping of surface temperature shows intensified intra-city urban heat island extremes

“…They are used here to identify urban contexts, leaving out small and isolated extra-urban centres made up of few built-up pixels. Today 53% of the world population (3.9 billion people) live inside FUA 12 . Overall, more than 1,200,000 1-km urban pixels (i.e.…”

“…Our results show that across urban areas worldwide over the period 2003-2020, 3-day SUHI extremes are on average more than twice as high as the warm-season median SUHI, with local exceedances up to 10 K. Over this period, SUHI extremes have increased more rapidly than warmseason medians, and averaged worldwide are now 1.04 K or 31% higher compared to 2003. This can be linked with increasing urbanisation 7 , more frequent heatwaves 8 , and greening of the earth 9 , processes that are all expected to continue in the coming decades [10][11][12] . Within many cities there are hotspots where extreme SUHI intensity is 10 to 15 K higher compared to relatively cooler city parts.…”

Projected Land Evaporation and Its Response to Vegetation Greening Over China Under Multiple Scenarios in the CMIP6 Models

“…In addition, a number of scholars have evaluated other variables in CMIP6 models for global or regional reliability, including LAI, precipitation, near-surface air temperature, and solar radiation involved in this study. Zhao et al (2020) evaluated the quality of the global LAI simulated by ESMs and found that there is a higher quality of LAI simulated in CMIP6 than CMIP5 models. All models and the multi-model ensemble mean can better reproduce the spatial pattern of the observed LAI, however, the global mean LAI are overestimated in most models attributed to overestimation of LAI in nonforested regions (Song et al, 2021), which may lead to further overestimation of land ET to some extent.…”

Projecting Future Vegetation Change for Northeast China Using CMIP6 Model

“…In fact, the exact effect of CO 2 fertilization on vegetation growth remains uncertain, and past assessment varies depending on the attribution approaches and ecosystem models used [11,75,76]. Recently, the dominant global-scale effect of CO 2 fertilization has also been questioned [11,12,30,76]. Winkler et al [30] suggested that the effect of CO 2 fertilization is only an important driver of greenness in some biomes, but is not important globally.…”

“…Previous studies have shown a general greening trend since the 1980s in NE China as a result of both a shift toward a warmer and wetter climate and human efforts, such as widespread restoration projects [7][8][9][10]. However, great uncertainties still exist as to whether this greening trend will continue in the future under projected climate change [11,12].…”