Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models

Zaninelli, Pablo G.; Menéndez, Claudio G.; Falco, Magdalena; López‐Franca, Noelia; Carril, Andrea F.

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4225-0

Cited by 64 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…A modest increase in VPD accompanied the temperature increase in the heated OTCs as has been seen in other studies (Norby et al, 1997; Sadras et al, 2012a), but other microclimate variables such as PPFD were similar to the control OTCs. Our experimental approach is consistent with regional climate models, which predict that aridity will increase by midcentury in our Andean region (Penalba and Rivera, 2013; Zaninelli et al, 2019). The active heating system also allowed for maintaining the high level of heating necessary to obtain a +4°C temperature increase.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Sap Flow Responses to Warming and Fruit Load in Young Olive Trees

et al. 2019

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Global warming will likely lead to temperature increases in many regions of South America where temperatures are already considered to be high for olive production. Thus, experimental studies are needed to assess how water use in olive trees may be affected by global warming. The objectives of this study were to (i) evaluate the response of olive tree sap flow, stomatal conductance, and xylem anatomy to elevated temperature and (ii) determine whether fruit load may affect the temperature responses. A warming experiment using well-irrigated olive trees (cv. Arbequina) in open-top chambers (OTCs) with two temperature levels was performed from fruit set to the end of fruit growth in two seasons. Temperature levels were a near ambient control (T0) and a treatment 4°C above the control (T+). Trees were in the chambers for either one (2015–2016) or two seasons (2014–2015, 2015–2016) and were evaluated only in the second season when all trees were 3 years old. Whole-tree sap flow on leaf area basis, stomatal conductance, and aspects of xylem anatomy were measured. Sap flow was slightly higher in T+ than T0 trees heated for one season early in fruit development (summer) likely due to the elevated temperature and increase in vapor pressure deficit. Later in fruit development (fall), sap flow was substantially higher in the T+ trees heated for one season. Total vessel number per shoot was greater in the T+ than the T0 trees at this time due to more small-diameter vessels in the T+ trees, but this did not appear to explain the greater sap flow. The T+ trees that were heated for two seasons had less fruit load than the T0 trees due to little flowering. In contrast to trees heated for one season, sap flow was less in T+ than controls late in fruit development the second season, which was likely related to lower fruit load. An independent experiment using untreated trees confirmed that sap flow decreases when fruit load is below a threshold value. The results emphasize that multiple, interacting factors should be considered when predicting warming effects on water use in olive orchards.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Sap Flow Responses to Warming and Fruit Load in Young Olive Trees

et al. 2019

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“…(). The two models have been used extensively over South America in different international projects such as CLARIS, CLARIS‐LPB and CORDEX (Menéndez et al ., , , ; Carril et al ., ; Ruscica et al ., , , ; Sánchez et al ., ; Falco et al ., ; Spennemann et al ., ; Zaninelli et al ., ). The spatial domain includes the South American continent and adjacent oceans at approximately 50 km resolution and the models were driven every 6 hr with boundary conditions from ERA‐Interim reanalysis (Dee et al ., ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

The diurnal cycle of precipitation over South America represented by five gridded datasets

Giles

Ruscica

Menéndez

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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A characterization of the diurnal cycle of precipitation (DCP) over the whole South America is still lacking in the literature and the scarcity of sub‐daily rain ground measurements limits the data available for analysis and forbids a correct validation of alternative datasets. In this paper we analyse the climatological mean DCP during the monsoon active season using five gridded datasets: two satellite precipitation estimates, two regional climate models and one reanalysis. Amazonia, the Brazilian Highlands, the northeastern South American coast, the Andes and the western Colombian coast are identified as the areas with most prominent DCPs. The afternoon convection triggered by solar heating over land and the coastal and topographic effects are the main modes of sub‐daily variability, based on an EOF decomposition of the 3 hourly mean precipitation fields. We explore the contribution of mean frequency and intensity to amount of precipitation and nighttime–daytime differences. In general, both models precipitate earlier and more frequently than the satellite products and do not reproduce correctly areas of observed predominant nighttime precipitation where mesoscale convective systems are active, like La Plata Basin or Amazonia. Over the analysed areas, the high frequency of precipitation is the driving mechanism of total amount in the models, whereas in the satellite products there is also considerable contribution from intensity. Overall, the reanalysis shows features in between the models and the satellite estimates, sharing characteristics with both types of data. The results presented here point at the diversity of sub‐daily precipitation characteristics in South America, the issues with conventional climate models and the uncertainty in satellite products and reanalyses. The growing interest in the DCP by the scientific community and the development of new techniques like convection permitting modelling will hopefully continue to improve our knowledge of the precipitation dynamics and its influence on climate.

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“…Argentina, a typical agricultural country, is a clear example of these multifaceted climate change impacts. While environmental variability has increased yields production in the central area of Argentina through a wetting process, it has also implied reduced productivity in the northerner areas due to increased temperatures and interannual precipitation variability that resulted in droughts and floods [16,17]. Thus, we conducted a case study in the latter region: the Northwest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Common-Pool Resources’ Institutional Robustness in a Collective Action Dilemma under Environmental Variations

Dipierri

Zikos

2020

Sustainability

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Extreme environmental variations, as a phenomenon deriving from climate change, led to an exacerbated uncertainty on water availability and increased the likelihood of conflicts regarding water-dependent activities such as agriculture. In this paper, we investigate the role of conflict resolution mechanisms—one of Ostrom’s acclaimed Design Principles—when social-ecological systems are exposed to physical external disturbances. The theoretical propositions predict that social-ecological systems with conflict-resolution mechanisms will perform better than those without them. We tested this proposition through a framed field experiment that mimicked an irrigation system. This asymmetric setting exposed farmers to two (2) dilemmas: (i) how much to invest in the communal irrigation system’s maintenance and (ii) how much water to extract. The setting added a layer of complexity: water availability depended not only on the investment but also on the environmental variability. Our findings confirmed the theoretical proposition: groups with stronger ‘institutional robustness’ can cope with environmental variations better than those with weaker robustness. However, we also found that some groups, despite lacking conflict-resolution mechanisms, were also able to address environmental variations. We explored potential explanatory variables to these unexpected results. We found that subjects’ and groups’ attributes might address uncertainty and avert conflict. Thus, social-ecological systems’ capacity to respond to external disturbances, such as environmental variations, might not only be a question of Design Principles. Instead, it might also be strongly related to group members’ attributes and group dynamics. Our results pave the way for further research, hinting that some groups might be better equipped for mitigation measures, while others might be better equipped for adaptation measures.

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Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models

Cited by 64 publications

References 42 publications

Sap Flow Responses to Warming and Fruit Load in Young Olive Trees

Sap Flow Responses to Warming and Fruit Load in Young Olive Trees

The diurnal cycle of precipitation over South America represented by five gridded datasets

The Role of Common-Pool Resources’ Institutional Robustness in a Collective Action Dilemma under Environmental Variations

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