Future impacts of climate change on inland Ramsar wetlands

Xi, Yi; Peng, Shushi; Ciais, Philippe; Chen, Youhua

doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00942-2

Cited by 153 publications

(98 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…While we were able to examine impacts of some habitat characteristics, additional studies may further elucidate the drivers of seasonal variation in nesting success of the Hawaiian Stilt. Furthermore, given the projected impacts of climate change on tropical and subtropical shorebird habitat (Amano et al, 2020;Xi et al, 2020;van Rees & Reed, 2018;K.C. Harmon, 2020, unpublished data).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal patterns in nest survival of a subtropical wading bird, the Hawaiian Stilt (Himantopus mexicanus knudseni)

Harmon¹,

Wehr²,

Price³

2021

PeerJ

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Nest survival is influenced by where and when birds decide to breed. For ground-nesting species, nest-site characteristics, such as vegetation height and proximity to water, may impact the likelihood of nest flooding or depredation. Further, habitat characteristics, and thus nest survival, may fluctuate across the breeding season. The Hawaiian Stilt (‘Ae‘o; Himantopus mexicanus knudseni) is an endangered Hawaiian waterbird that nests in wetlands across the Hawaiian Islands. In this study, we used observational surveys and nest cameras to examine the impact of nest-site characteristics and day of nesting season on nest survival of the Hawaiian Stilt. Early nests had a higher chance of survival than late nests. For most of the nesting season, taller vegetation was correlated with increased nest survival, while shorter vegetation was correlated with increased nest survival late in the nesting season. Seasonal patterns in nest survival may be due to changes in parental behavior or predator activity. Nest depredation was responsible for 55% of confirmed nest failures and introduced mammals were the primary nest predators. Our study is the first to examine seasonality in nest survival of Hawaiian Stilts and suggests that, despite longer nesting seasons and year-round occupation of wetlands, late nesters in subtropical regions may have lower nest survival than early nesters, similar to trends observed in temperate regions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal patterns in nest survival of a subtropical wading bird, the Hawaiian Stilt (Himantopus mexicanus knudseni)

Harmon¹,

Wehr²,

Price³

2021

PeerJ

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“…Within riverine wetlands, including floodplains, these hydrological conditions are most strongly influenced by the regimes of the rivers with which they are associated (Tockner & Stanford 2002). Flow alterations due to climate change, as well as other factors including water resources management, therefore have the potential to impact riverine, riparian and floodplain habitats, with the modification or loss of ecosystem services (Okruszko et al 2011;Acreman et al 2014;Laizé et al 2017;Xi et al 2020). Depending upon the magnitude of hydrological changes, thresholds may be exceeded beyond which significant ecological alteration occurs (Richter et al 1996;Bunn & Arthington 2002).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Changes in flows of water into, within and out of wetlands have the potential to impact inundation patterns and water-level regimes with consequent modifications to wetland hydroecological conditions (e.g. Xi et al 2020). Hydrological models can be used to assess climate change-driven modifications to river flows and wetland water-level or flood regimes by forcing meteorological inputs with General Circulation Model (GCM)-derived climate projections.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on environmental flows in West Africa's Upper Niger Basin and the Inner Niger Delta

et al. 2021

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Modified water regimes due to climate change are likely to be a major cause of freshwater ecosystem alteration. General Circulation Model (GCM)-related uncertainty in environmental flows at 12 gauging stations in the Upper Niger Basin and flooding within the Inner Niger Delta is assessed using the Ecological Risk due to the Flow Alteration method and a hydrological model forced with projections from 12 GCM groups for RCP 4.5 in the 2050s and 2080s. Risk varies between GCM groups and stations. It increases into the future and is larger for changes in low flows compared to high flows. For the ensemble mean, a small minority of GCM groups projects no risk for high flows in the 2050s (low risk otherwise). This reverses for the 2080s. For low flows, no risk is limited to three stations in the 2050s and one station in the 2080s, the other experience either low or medium risk. There is greater consistency in the risk of change in flood extent, especially in the dry season (medium risk for all groups and the ensemble mean). Some (low or medium) risk of change in peak annual inundation is projected for most groups. Changing flood patterns have implications for wetland ecology and ecosystem services.

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“…We chose values to represent a range of scenarios from fast to slow system change. These scenarios are grounded in estimates of habitat loss and climate projections; for example, average global wetland loss in the twentieth century has been estimated at approximately −1%/year (Davidson 2016), and this loss is expected to accelerate under climate projections (Xi et al 2020). We also included a scenario in which

K

remained constant over time to find the stationary policy.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Strategies for Managing Wildlife Harvest Under System Change

Tucker

Runge

2021

J Wildl Manag

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Wildlife populations are experiencing shifting dynamics due to climate and landscape change. Management policies that fail to account for non‐stationary dynamics may fail to achieve management objectives. We establish a framework for understanding optimal strategies for managing a theoretical harvested population under non‐stationarity. Building from harvest theory, we develop scenarios representing changes in population growth rate ( r ) or carrying capacity ( K ) and derive time‐dependent optimal harvest policies using stochastic dynamic programming. We then evaluate the cost of falsely assuming stationarity by comparing the outcomes of forward projections in which either the optimal policy or a stationary policy is applied. When K declines over time, the stationary policy leads to an underharvest of the population, resulting in less harvest over the short term but leaving the population in a higher‐value state. When r declines over time, the stationary policy leads to overharvest, resulting in greater harvest returns in the short term but leaving the population in a lower and potentially more vulnerable state. This work demonstrates the basic properties of time‐dependent harvest management and provides a framework for evaluating the many outstanding questions about optimal management strategies under climate change. Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

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Future impacts of climate change on inland Ramsar wetlands

Cited by 153 publications

References 48 publications

Seasonal patterns in nest survival of a subtropical wading bird, the Hawaiian Stilt (Himantopus mexicanus knudseni)

Seasonal patterns in nest survival of a subtropical wading bird, the Hawaiian Stilt (Himantopus mexicanus knudseni)

Impacts of climate change on environmental flows in West Africa's Upper Niger Basin and the Inner Niger Delta

Optimal Strategies for Managing Wildlife Harvest Under System Change

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